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Analytics and Reports, Country Analytics, Military Analytics

Top Three Countries Supporting Iran SITREP – March 10, 2026

1.0 Executive Summary

This Situation Report provides an exhaustive, multi-domain assessment of the state actors actively supporting the Islamic Republic of Iran following the initiation of Operation Epic Fury by the United States and Israel on February 28, 2026. The coordinated decapitation strikes, which resulted in the confirmed deaths of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and multiple senior military commanders, have fundamentally altered the regional power dynamic and triggered an unprecedented institutional succession crisis within Tehran.1 In response to the systematic degradation of Iranian command and control nodes, a constellation of foreign state actors has mobilized to provide varying degrees of diplomatic, economic, intelligence, and military support to the embattled Iranian regime.

The primary state actors bolstering Tehran are the Russian Federation, the People’s Republic of China, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Secondary support and ideological solidarity are being provided by regional partners such as the Syrian Arab Republic and non-state proxies, alongside sympathetic governments in Latin America, including Venezuela and Cuba.3

The Russian Federation has adopted a highly aggressive and operationally integrated posture. Moscow is currently supplying real-time satellite targeting intelligence to Iranian forces, enabling precise ballistic missile strikes against United States military assets across the Middle East.5 Concurrently, the Russian military is actively testing United States homeland defense capabilities in the High North to assess whether the conflict has degraded American strategic bandwidth.6

The People’s Republic of China has maintained a doctrine of strategic insulation, strictly avoiding direct military entanglement while single-handedly sustaining the Iranian economy. Beijing achieves this through a sophisticated shadow banking network and the continuous, clandestine purchase of illicit crude oil, providing billions of dollars in essential infrastructure development.7 Open-source intelligence indicates that Beijing is currently weighing the provision of direct financial assistance and critical missile components to replenish Iran’s rapidly depleting arsenals, though this is balanced against China’s need for stable global energy markets.9

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has leveraged the conflict to aggressively validate its own nuclear deterrence doctrine. Pyongyang has accelerated its anti-Western rhetoric while deepening its military-industrial integration with Iran, particularly through joint drone production facilities located in Russian territory and the historical transfer of ballistic missile technology.10

These state actors view a drawn-out conflict between Iran and the United States through distinct, self-interested strategic lenses. The Russian Federation seeks to trap the United States in a prolonged Middle Eastern war of attrition to relieve systemic pressure on its own military operations in Eastern Europe.13 The People’s Republic of China views the conflict as a severe threat to its energy security and regional infrastructure investments, yet simultaneously recognizes a strategic opportunity to observe United States force projection capabilities in preparation for its own Indo-Pacific planning.8 The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea views the conflict as irrefutable proof that disarmament invites regime destruction, utilizing the geopolitical instability to extract economic and technological concessions from both Moscow and Tehran.14

Ultimately, these supporting states share a unified macro-objective. They aim to prevent the total collapse of the Iranian political establishment, recognizing that the survival of the current regime is essential to maintaining a multipolar counterbalance to United States global hegemony.

2.0 Strategic Context and the Iranian Operational Environment

To accurately assess the support mechanisms provided by foreign state actors, it is critical to contextualize the current operational environment within the Islamic Republic of Iran. The initial phases of Operation Epic Fury achieved unprecedented kinetic effects against the central command architecture of the regime. The destruction of sovereign leadership elements has forced supporting nations to adapt their engagement strategies to interface with a heavily fractured political and military landscape.

2.1 The Leadership Vacuum and Institutional Fragmentation

The confirmed death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28 removed the ultimate decision-making authority over Iran’s military, nuclear program, judiciary, and regional proxy network.2 This event immediately activated Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution, leading to the formation of a provisional ruling body. This Interim Leadership Council consists of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and Expediency Council member Alireza Arafi.15 Under normal circumstances, this council would temporarily assume the core responsibilities of the Supreme Leader, including oversight of the armed forces and the issuance of strategic wartime directives, until the Assembly of Experts could convene to elect a permanent successor.

However, the constitutional succession process has been severely disrupted by continuous military operations. On March 3, the Israeli Air Force reportedly executed precision strikes against a facility housing the Assembly of Experts in Qom.18 Intelligence reports indicate that the council secretary and multiple officials responsible for administering Supreme Council votes were killed, and critical administrative infrastructure was destroyed.18 This vacuum at the absolute pinnacle of the state apparatus has effectively decentralized command and control.

Despite the loss of at least forty senior military and security officials, including the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Defense Minister, and the Armed Forces Chief of Staff, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retains significant structural resilience.2 The organization has shifted to a distributed command model, allowing individual commanders to act on their own initiative to execute retaliatory missile and drone barrages.19 Consequently, foreign state actors seeking to support Iran must now navigate a fractured political landscape, frequently bypassing the civilian Interim Leadership Council to interface directly with autonomous Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps elements that control the physical instruments of state power.

2.2 Degradation of the Defense Industrial Base

The combined United States and Israeli military campaign has systematically targeted Iran’s defense industrial base with the explicit objective of permanently neutralizing its retaliatory capabilities and dismantling its ballistic missile program. High-value facilities have sustained repeated and devastating aerial bombardment. The Shiraz Electronics Industries Zone in Fars Province, which produces military electronics, avionics, radars, and missile guidance components, was struck at least thirteen times by March 6.20

Furthermore, satellite imagery confirms severe damage to the Raja Shimi Industries plant in Tehran Province, a critical node for the production of rocket propellants located adjacent to the Imam Sajjad Missile Base.20 The Esteghlal Industrial Zone and the Defense Industries Organization facilities have also been repeatedly targeted.20 The systematic destruction of these domestic supply chains has rendered the Iranian military apparatus entirely dependent on external state actors for the replenishment of advanced munitions, early warning radar systems, and aerospace components. This acute material dependency forms the primary vector through which foreign governments are currently exercising leverage and providing critical material support to Tehran.

3.0 The Russian Federation: Intelligence Sharing and Strategic Diversion

The Russian Federation has emerged as the most operationally active and aggressive state supporter of the Iranian regime in the current conflict. The bilateral relationship between Moscow and Tehran has evolved significantly over the past five years from a transactional partnership into a highly integrated military alliance, accelerated by reciprocal dependencies developed during the ongoing war in Ukraine. Russia is currently leveraging its vast military intelligence apparatus to directly enhance Iranian strike capabilities while simultaneously testing Western defensive perimeters globally.

3.1 Provision of Real-Time Targeting Intelligence

United States intelligence officials and defense personnel have confirmed that the Russian military apparatus is providing direct targeting intelligence to Iranian forces.5 This comprehensive intelligence package includes high-resolution satellite imagery, electronic intelligence, and real-time tracking data regarding the positions, movements, and operational status of United States military assets. This includes the precise coordinates of warships navigating the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and aircraft stationed at regional bases throughout the Middle East.5

The provision of this telemetry and targeting data represents a massive escalation in Russian involvement. Iran’s indigenous satellite capabilities and aerial reconnaissance networks have been severely degraded or entirely blinded by the ongoing coalition air campaign. Furthermore, Iran historically lacks access to continuous, high-quality commercial satellite imagery due to stringent international sanctions.21 By bridging this critical capability gap, Russian military intelligence enables the remnants of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to conduct highly precise ballistic missile and drone strikes against coalition forces. This direct assistance exponentially increases the lethality of Iranian retaliatory operations and directly threatens the lives of United States service members stationed in the region.

3.2 Probing Operations in the High North and the Arctic

Beyond the immediate Middle Eastern theater, the Russian Federation is actively attempting to exploit the United States’ operational focus on Iran by aggressively testing defensive perimeters in the Arctic Circle. On March 4, 2026, the North American Aerospace Defense Command detected, tracked, and intercepted two Russian Tu-142 maritime patrol aircraft operating deep within the Alaskan and Canadian Air Defense Identification Zones.6 In response, a coalition of twelve aircraft, including six fighter jets and six refueling and intelligence aircraft, were dispatched to monitor the incursion.6 A similar incident occurred weeks prior on February 19, 2026.6

While Russian aerial incursions into the Air Defense Identification Zone are a historical norm, the timing and frequency of these specific deployments mark a calculated strategic probe.6 The primary objective of these high-altitude maneuvers is to assess what specific actions trigger a North American Aerospace Defense Command response and to precisely measure the speed and volume of that response. Moscow aims to determine whether the immense logistical, intelligence, and operational demands of Operation Epic Fury have degraded the rapid-response capabilities of the United States military in the High North.6 This aggressive posturing indicates that Russia views the Iranian conflict not merely as a regional dispute, but as a mechanism to stress-test the global strategic bandwidth of the United States. In response to these escalating threats, NATO has been forced to activate the Arctic Sentry scheme to coordinate allied exercises and monitor Russian submarines transiting the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom gap.6

3.3 Defense Industrial Integration and the Yelabuga Complex

The material and technical support between the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran is bi-directional and highly institutionalized. A primary node of this enduring cooperation is the Yelabuga special economic zone located in the Republic of Tatarstan, deep within Russian territory. Open-source imagery analysis and satellite telemetry confirm a massive, sustained infrastructure expansion at the Yelabuga facility.10 Since late 2021, the complex has grown from two minor buildings into a sprawling 17-facility industrial hub encompassing 116 buildings across 2.82 million square meters.10

This facility, originally established with Iranian assistance to mass-produce the Iranian-designed Geran-1 and Geran-2 uncrewed aerial vehicles for Russian use in Eastern Europe, now serves as a central hub for technological preservation and transfer.10 The facility is currently producing an estimated 5,500 drone units per month.10 As Iranian domestic production facilities are systematically destroyed by United States and Israeli airstrikes, the Yelabuga complex provides a secure, out-of-theater manufacturing base that is completely immune to conventional military strikes by coalition forces.20 The shared telemetry data derived from combat deployments in both Eastern Europe and the Middle East allows Russian and Iranian engineers to continuously refine drone avionics, payload delivery systems, and evasion capabilities against modern Western integrated air defense systems.10

3.4 Russian Strategic Objectives and Conflict Outlook

The political and military establishment in Moscow views a drawn-out, high-intensity conflict between Iran and the United States as highly advantageous to Russian national security interests. A prolonged war of attrition in the Persian Gulf diverts American financial resources, advanced military hardware, and critical political capital away from the European theater. The Russian Ministry of Defense calculates that a permanent state of conflict in the Middle East will exhaust Western munitions stockpiles, particularly regarding air defense interceptors, and erode domestic political support within the United States for sustained global military interventions.13

Consequently, Russia is highly motivated to provide just enough intelligence, electronic warfare support, and material assistance to prevent the total collapse of the Iranian regime. By ensuring that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retains sufficient asymmetric capabilities to continuously harass coalition forces, Russia guarantees that the conflict remains a persistent, bleeding drain on American strategic resources, thereby shifting the global balance of power favorably toward Moscow.

4.0 The People’s Republic of China: Economic Lifelines and Strategic Ambiguity

The People’s Republic of China is navigating an highly complex strategic calculus regarding the Iranian conflict. Unlike the Russian Federation, Beijing has formally rejected direct military intervention and maintains a strict doctrine of strategic insulation and non-intervention.8 However, China’s vast economic machinery remains the primary pillar preventing the total collapse of the Iranian state under the crushing weight of combined military strikes and international financial sanctions.

4.1 Diplomatic Condemnation and Regional Positioning

Diplomatically, the Chinese government has emerged as the most vocal and aggressive critic of the United States-Israeli military campaign among all major Indo-Pacific nations.22 While other regional powers such as India, Japan, and Australia have urged restraint, prioritized diplomacy, or quietly supported the strikes, Beijing has officially characterized the military operations as an illegal violation of Iranian sovereignty and a dangerous breach of international law.22 On the international stage, Chinese diplomats have joined their Russian counterparts in demanding emergency sessions at the United Nations Security Council to condemn the airstrikes and demand an immediate cessation of hostilities.8 Furthermore, Beijing has dispatched special envoys to the region in an attempt to elevate its diplomatic profile as a global peacemaker.8

Despite this intense public rhetoric, China’s tangible actions are heavily constrained by its broader regional interests. China is deeply invested in the Gulf Cooperation Council states, particularly the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Between 2019 and 2024, China invested approximately 89 billion dollars directly into the Middle East, with Belt and Road Initiative capital flowing heavily toward these Gulf economies.8 Because Iranian retaliatory strikes have indiscriminately targeted civilian infrastructure, airports, and energy facilities within the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf nations, Beijing is forced into a precarious balancing act.24 It must balance its ideological alignment with Tehran against the necessity of protecting its massive financial investments and the safety of its expatriate workforce in the surrounding states.8

4.2 Financial Subversion and the Shadow Banking Architecture

China’s most vital and effective contribution to the survival of the Iranian regime is purely financial. Prior to the outbreak of open hostilities, China accounted for the purchase of approximately 90 percent of all Iranian crude oil exports, providing a crucial lifeline to Tehran.7 To successfully bypass United States secondary sanctions and insulate its own central banking system from international penalties, Beijing has cultivated a highly sophisticated, multi-layered shadow banking network.

This covert payment pipeline effectively operates entirely outside the SWIFT network and conventional dollar-clearing channels. Under this clandestine arrangement, Iranian crude oil is transported to Chinese ports via a massive “shadow fleet” of dark vessels utilizing ship-to-ship transfers in open waters to obscure the origin of the cargo.7 The purchases are facilitated by corporate entities linked to the Chinese state trader Zhuhai Zhenrong.7 Crucially, the massive capital generated from these sales is not repatriated to Tehran in standard fiat currency. Instead, it is deposited with an unregistered, opaque financial intermediary vehicle known as Chuxin.7

Chuxin then utilizes these accumulated funds to directly pay Chinese domestic engineering and construction contractors. These contractors, operating under the protective umbrella of Sinosure, the Chinese state-owned export credit insurance agency, are deployed to develop massive infrastructure projects within Iran.7 Western intelligence officials estimate that this closed-loop system provided the Iranian regime with up to 8.4 billion dollars in critical infrastructure value in the previous year alone, entirely evading international financial compliance tripwires.7

Entity NameFunction within Evasion ArchitectureSanctions Status
Zhuhai ZhenrongState-linked trader facilitating the initial purchase of illicit Iranian crude oil via shadow fleet tankers.Not currently under US sanctions for this specific mechanism.
ChuxinUnregistered financial intermediary that holds capital generated from oil sales to prevent dollar-clearing exposure.Not currently under US sanctions.
SinosureState-owned export credit insurance agency providing risk mitigation and an operational umbrella for Chinese contractors in Iran.Not currently under US sanctions.

4.3 Potential Escalation of Material Support

While China has historically restricted its exports to Tehran to dual-use technologies and civilian infrastructure equipment, current intelligence assessments indicate that Beijing is actively weighing the provision of direct financial aid and critical lethal weapons components.9 As coalition airstrikes systematically obliterate Iran’s domestic manufacturing base, the Iranian armed forces face a critical, paralyzing shortage of replacement parts for their integrated air defense networks, drone fleets, and ballistic missile systems.

The Central Intelligence Agency and the United States Department of Defense are closely monitoring logistical channels for definitive signs that China is preparing to transfer advanced missile-related components, guidance systems, and aerospace replacement parts to Tehran.9 However, human intelligence sources indicate that the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party is approaching this decision with extreme caution. Supplying direct lethal aid risks triggering severe United States secondary sanctions against vital Chinese technology sectors. Furthermore, it could provoke reciprocal actions by the United States Navy to interdict Chinese commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, an escalation Beijing is desperate to avoid.9

4.4 Chinese Strategic Objectives and Conflict Outlook

The leadership in Beijing views a drawn-out, uncontrolled conflict in the Middle East as highly detrimental to its near-term domestic economic stability. The disruption of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz directly threatens China’s energy security, driving up global commodity prices and transportation costs. This economic friction severely imperils Premier Li Qiang’s targeted domestic economic growth rate of 4.5 to 5 percent for the 2026 fiscal year, the lowest target set since 1991.27

Conversely, the military dimension of the conflict offers the People’s Liberation Army a unique and invaluable intelligence-gathering opportunity. The massive mobilization of United States naval carrier strike groups, the deployment of advanced stealth aircraft, and the utilization of integrated air defense systems provide Chinese military planners with an unprecedented theater to observe American operational art in real-time.8 Beijing is actively utilizing its space-based intelligence assets to monitor allied deployments in the Gulf of Oman, extracting critical data to refine its own strategic planning and anti-access/area denial strategies for future contingencies in the Indo-Pacific, particularly regarding Taiwan.8

Ultimately, China hopes to achieve a managed stabilization of the Iranian regime. A surviving, albeit weakened, Iran preserves Beijing’s access to heavily discounted hydrocarbons while simultaneously anchoring United States military power and political attention far from the South China Sea.8

5.0 The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea: Doctrinal Validation and Munitions Support

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has responded to the military campaign against Iran with severe diplomatic hostility and a renewed, aggressive commitment to its own nuclear armament program. The relationship between Pyongyang and Tehran is foundational to the strategic military capabilities of both states, characterized by decades of illicit technology sharing, intelligence exchange, and mutual sanctions evasion.

5.1 Rhetorical Posture and the Doctrine of Illegal Aggression

Following the February 28 decapitation strikes that eliminated Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the North Korean Foreign Ministry issued highly aggressive statements via the state-run Korean Central News Agency.12 Pyongyang characterized the United States and Israeli operations as an act of “illegal aggression,” “gangster-like behavior,” and a “despicable form of sovereignty violation”.12 This rhetoric deliberately frames the conflict through an anti-imperialist lens, attempting to generate global solidarity among nations currently operating under Western sanctions regimes.

More importantly, the destruction of the Iranian political leadership serves as a stark ideological validation for Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un.12 North Korean state media and internal propaganda apparatuses have utilized the war in Iran to explicitly justify the nation’s nuclear weapons program. The regime argues that any nation lacking an active, deployable, and terrifying nuclear deterrent is guaranteed to face violent regime change orchestrated by Western powers.12 The supreme leadership in Pyongyang views the fate of the Iranian government as empirical evidence that diplomatic concessions regarding weapons of mass destruction are inherently fatal to regime survival.14 Demonstrating this renewed commitment, Kim Jong Un recently oversaw the launch of a missile from the Choe Hyon, a 5,000-tonne destroyer-class vessel, stating that the arming of naval ships with nuclear weapons was making satisfactory progress.14

5.2 Ballistic Missile Proliferation and Asymmetric Warfare

The technical foundation of the Iranian ballistic missile program is deeply intertwined with North Korean engineering and design principles. Iran’s primary medium-range delivery systems, including the Shahab-3, Emad, and Ghadr missiles, are direct derivatives of the North Korean Rodong missile architecture.11 This historical collaboration, dating back to the 1980s, involves intense intelligence exchange, the transfer of solid-fuel technologies, and the sharing of critical reentry vehicle telemetry data.11

As the Iranian military rapidly exhausts its stockpiles of medium-range ballistic missiles in retaliatory barrages against Israel and Gulf states, the regime will require immediate external assistance to rebuild its arsenal.32 North Korea is uniquely positioned to supply basic missile components, older legacy systems, and essential spare parts that are highly compatible with existing Iranian launch infrastructure.33 While Pyongyang will likely reserve its most advanced, cutting-edge technologies for its own defense against the Republic of Korea, the provision of low-end munitions, drone components, and structural materials is highly probable as Iran seeks to sustain a high operational tempo in a war of attrition.33

5.3 Subterranean Engineering and Human Capital Export

In addition to hardware transfers, North Korea provides highly specialized human capital to its strategic allies. Since the cessation of hostilities in the 1950s Korean War, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has perfected the engineering of deeply buried, hardened military facilities designed to withstand sustained aerial bombardment.11 This unique expertise has previously been exported to state actors such as Syria during the construction of its nuclear reactor, and intelligence reports suggest North Korean engineers have actively assisted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the construction of subterranean missile bases and hardened enrichment sites.11

Furthermore, human intelligence and open-source reports indicate that up to 12,000 North Korean technicians and laborers have been deployed to the Russian Yelabuga complex.10 This workforce is instrumental in facilitating the rapid mass production of Iranian-designed uncrewed aerial systems.10 This trilateral cooperation allows North Korea to gain invaluable real-world combat data regarding the efficacy of drone swarms against modern Western air defense systems without directly exposing its own military assets to retaliatory strikes on the Korean Peninsula.10

5.4 Nuclear Hedging and Extreme Scenarios

A severe, low-probability but high-impact risk involves the direct transfer of nuclear material or weaponization expertise. Intelligence analysts assess that North Korea currently produces an excess of weapons-grade highly enriched uranium, operating facilities at Yongbyon and Kangson capable of generating up to 230 kilograms annually.34 This quantity is sufficient to produce seven to nine highly enriched uranium-based nuclear weapons per year.34

If the remnants of the Iranian regime determine that a rapid nuclear breakout is absolutely necessary for their ultimate survival following the decapitation of their leadership, North Korea represents the most viable global source for intact nuclear material or advanced weaponization technology.34 Furthermore, following the assassination of numerous senior Iranian nuclear scientists by Israeli intelligence, North Korea could theoretically lend its own weapons designers, metallurgists, and engineers to Tehran to bridge the critical knowledge gap created by the coalition strikes.34

5.5 North Korean Strategic Objectives and Conflict Outlook

Pyongyang views a drawn-out conflict in the Middle East as a highly favorable operational environment. The absorption of United States military assets, naval carrier groups, and intelligence bandwidth in the Persian Gulf drastically reduces the immediate threat profile on the Korean Peninsula. Consequently, North Korea hopes to utilize this period of strategic distraction to rapidly expand its own nuclear arsenal, test advanced delivery systems, and potentially engage in localized coercive military actions against the Republic of Korea without facing the full, undivided attention of the United States military.30 In exchange for its material and technical support of Iran, Pyongyang will likely demand reciprocal transfers of advanced drone technology, refined petroleum products, and hard currency to circumvent international sanctions.

6.0 Regional Facilitators, Proxies, and Ideological Allies

While Russia, China, and North Korea provide the strategic depth and industrial capacity required to sustain the Iranian regime, a secondary tier of state actors and non-state proxies provides critical logistical nodes, localized military pressure, and ideological solidarity.

6.1 The Syrian Arab Republic: Logistical Dilemmas and Regime Survival

The Syrian Arab Republic remains a vital geographic node in the “Axis of Resistance,” historically serving as the primary logistical land bridge connecting Tehran to Hezbollah forces operating in Lebanon.4 However, the current conflict places the government of President Bashar al-Assad in an highly precarious strategic position. The intensive Israeli air campaign has systematically targeted Iranian supply lines, command centers, and weapons depots located within Syrian territory over the past two years, heavily degrading Syria’s domestic infrastructure.35

Currently, Damascus is facing immense geopolitical pressure. The United States and its allies are highly motivated to secure a swift outcome in the war and are likely to leverage military force to definitively sever the remaining supply corridors passing through Syria.4 Consequently, Syria’s ability to provide material support to Iran is severely constrained. The Assad government is forced to balance its historical ideological and military alignment with Tehran against the immediate, existential necessity of insulating the fragile Syrian state from a broader regional conflagration that could fracture its territorial unity.4 Furthermore, mass population displacements from southern Lebanon into Syria—with nearly 10,000 Syrians and 1,000 Lebanese crossing the border daily—have placed an unsustainable strain on local resources, further degrading the state’s capacity to facilitate Iranian military operations.36

6.2 The Axis of Resistance: Hezbollah and Regional Militias

Heeding intense pressure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah has actively engaged in the conflict to draw Israeli military resources away from the Iranian homeland. Despite absorbing over 600 airstrikes from the Israeli Air Force since February 28, open-source intelligence tracking confirms that Hezbollah retains an arsenal of approximately 25,000 rockets and missiles.37 The group has escalated its tactical approach, utilizing Iranian-supplied cluster munition warheads in strikes against civilian centers such as Yehud, demonstrating a deliberate shift toward maximizing civilian casualties to force a coalition ceasefire.37 Alongside Hezbollah, the Iranian regime continues to receive operational support through its network of proxies, including the Houthis in Yemen and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, which create the possibility of a sustained multi-theater insurgency.22

6.3 Latin American Alignments: Venezuela, Cuba, and the Hemispheric Divide

In the Western Hemisphere, the Iranian regime receives highly vocal diplomatic and ideological support from anti-Western governments, primarily Venezuela and Cuba. However, the capacity of these states to provide tangible material, intelligence, or financial support is practically nonexistent due to severe domestic economic crises and aggressive United States interventions.

In January 2026, the United States conducted a highly controversial military operation in Venezuela, resulting in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro.29 This unprecedented action has neutralized the Venezuelan state apparatus as an active strategic partner for Iran. The remnants of the Venezuelan government, alongside Cuba and Nicaragua, continue to denounce the United States strikes on Iran as imperialist aggression, yet their support remains purely rhetorical.3 This ideological solidarity highlights a deep hemispheric divide, contrasted sharply by the governments of Argentina and Paraguay. Both Argentina and Paraguay have actively endorsed the military operations against Iran, utilizing the moment to remind the international community of Iran’s global belligerence, specifically citing the role of Iranian officials like Ahmad Vahidi in the 1994 AMIA Jewish center bombing in Buenos Aires.22

7.0 Financial Evasion Mechanisms and Supply Chain Resilience

The survival of the Iranian regime in a protracted conflict relies almost entirely on the ability of its state supporters to circumvent Western financial sanctions and maintain the flow of critical commodities. The events of early 2026 have accelerated the integration of a parallel economic architecture among sanctioned states.

7.1 Digital Currency Integration and Sanctions Evasion

To permanently mitigate the risks associated with reliance on the SWIFT network and dollar-dominated clearing houses, supporting states are rapidly advancing the development and implementation of alternative financial settlement systems. The People’s Republic of China is actively exporting its digital yuan infrastructure to sanctioned entities, recently assisting Myanmar’s military regime in developing a digital payment system to bypass United States sanctions.39 By routing transactions through China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System utilizing layered digital currencies, foreign actors can effectively obscure the ultimate ownership of assets and the final destination of funds, exploiting correspondent ties with major global banks.39

Concurrently, Russia and Iran, functioning within the BRICS framework, have escalated efforts to develop ruble-backed and gold-backed stablecoins to facilitate bilateral trade.40 While widespread macroeconomic adoption of these central bank digital currencies remains distant, the utilization of these decentralized, highly encrypted payment technologies presents a severe challenge to Western financial containment strategies. These systems ensure that vital components, raw materials, and drone parts can still be procured by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on the global black market.40

7.2 The Proliferation of the Shadow Fleet and Global Logistics

The physical manifestation of this sanctions evasion strategy is the “shadow fleet”, an armada of aging, unflagged, or deceptively flagged maritime vessels responsible for transporting Iranian crude oil to willing buyers, primarily in China.26 Russia has directly adopted and integrated Iran’s shadow fleet tactics to sustain its own petroleum exports following European embargoes.41 This shared tactical evolution demonstrates a high degree of operational learning between Moscow and Tehran. The maintenance of this fleet is essential to providing the Iranian regime with the hard currency required to fund its military reconstruction and sustain domestic subsidy programs during the conflict.26

The conflict has also severely impacted global supply chains. Major shipping lines have diverted vessels away from the Strait of Hormuz, adding significant time and expense to the delivery of materials. The construction industry is particularly vulnerable, as essential materials such as cement, steel, concrete, and aluminum are heavily produced or sourced in the Middle East.42 The disruption of these shipping routes threatens to increase the cost-to-serve by up to forty percent for global supply chains, creating an economic ripple effect that supporting states like China and Russia must carefully manage.43

8.0 Strategic Outlook and Actor Intentions

The coalition of states supporting the Islamic Republic of Iran is not bound by a formal defense treaty, but rather by a shared, pragmatic strategic imperative to dismantle the unipolar dominance of the United States. Their varying levels of support are meticulously calibrated to advance specific national interests in the context of a drawn-out conflict.

  1. Exploitation of United States Strategic Bandwidth: All supporting actors calculate that an extensive military entanglement in the Middle East will heavily deplete American munitions stockpiles, stress naval logistics, and fracture domestic political consensus. Russia requires this distraction to prosecute its war in Europe; China requires this distraction to accelerate its military modernization without interference in the South China Sea; North Korea requires this distraction to expand its nuclear arsenal without facing immediate preemptive strikes.
  2. Regime Preservation over Absolute Victory: None of the supporting states harbor illusions regarding Iran’s ability to achieve a conventional military victory against the combined forces of the United States and Israel. Their objective is strictly preservation. By providing financial lifelines, targeting intelligence, and critical components, they aim to ensure that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retains sufficient asymmetric capabilities to exact a heavy toll on coalition forces, thereby preventing the establishment of a pro-Western government in Tehran.
  3. The Threat of Escalation: If the collapse of the Iranian regime appears imminent, the threshold for direct, highly lethal technology transfer will likely be breached. The most significant systemic risks include the mass transfer of Chinese advanced air defense platforms, the provision of Russian hypersonic anti-ship missiles to block the Strait of Hormuz, or the transfer of North Korean fissile material and nuclear expertise.

9.0 Conclusion

The military operations initiated on February 28, 2026, have successfully degraded the upper echelons of the Iranian leadership, fragmented its constitutional succession process, and inflicted severe damage upon the nation’s defense industrial base. However, the regime is currently being sustained by a robust, multi-dimensional network of state actors who view the survival of the Islamic Republic as critical to their own geopolitical security and the broader goal of challenging United States hegemony.

The Russian Federation has crossed the threshold into direct operational support through the provision of satellite targeting intelligence, fundamentally altering the lethality of the conflict for coalition forces. The People’s Republic of China continues to provide the essential economic bedrock via clandestine oil purchases and highly sophisticated shadow banking mechanisms, while aggressively monitoring the battlespace for its own future military applications. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea provides critical ideological reinforcement and remains the most likely source for the rapid replenishment of ballistic missile components and asymmetric technology.

For the United States and its allies, achieving the strategic objectives of Operation Epic Fury will require significantly more than the kinetic destruction of Iranian infrastructure. It will necessitate the systematic dismantling of the financial evasion networks, shadow fleets, and external logistical corridors that currently connect Tehran to Moscow, Beijing, and Pyongyang. A failure to interdict these complex global supply lines will ensure that the conflict devolves into a prolonged, heavily subsidized war of attrition, precisely fulfilling the strategic objectives of Iran’s state sponsors.

10.0 Summary Table of Support by Country

The following table categorizes the distinct mechanisms of support provided by foreign state actors to the Iranian regime during the current conflict.

State ActorDiplomatic PostureFinancial & Economic SupportIntelligence & Military SupportPrimary Strategic Objective
Russian FederationHigh support; calls for emergency UN intervention.Integration of evasion tactics; BRICS digital currency cooperation.Providing real-time satellite targeting intelligence; hosting joint drone production facilities (Yelabuga); probing US homeland defenses.Divert US military bandwidth from Europe; trap coalition forces in a war of attrition.
People’s Republic of ChinaHigh support; vocal condemnation of US strikes; opposing regime change.Primary buyer of Iranian oil (90 percent of exports); operating Chuxin shadow banking network; providing infrastructure financing via Sinosure.Weighing the provision of replacement missile components and dual-use technology; observing US operations.Secure cheap energy imports; protect regional investments; observe US operational deployments for Taiwan planning.
Democratic People’s Republic of KoreaExtreme support; characterizing strikes as illegal aggression.Potential barter agreements exchanging munitions for energy.Historic ballistic missile tech transfers (Rodong lineage); joint engineering operations; potential lending of nuclear personnel and HEU.Validate domestic nuclear doctrine; acquire combat data on drone systems; distract US forces from the Korean Peninsula.
Syrian Arab RepublicModerate support; constrained by severe domestic threats.Negligible due to domestic economic collapse.Maintaining vulnerable logistical land bridges to Hezbollah and proxy forces.Balance regime survival against historical ideological commitments to the Axis of Resistance.
Venezuela & CubaHigh rhetorical support; heavily constrained by US intervention.Negligible.Negligible.Demonstrate anti-imperialist solidarity following the US capture of the Venezuelan President.

Appendix A: Methodology

This Situation Report was generated utilizing a comprehensive real-time sweep of global open-source intelligence, military monitors, and official state broadcasts spanning the period immediately preceding and following the initiation of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026. The intelligence collection prioritized high-reliability geopolitical think tanks, defense industry monitors, and verifiable satellite imagery analyses. To ensure chronological accuracy, a 36-hour operational overlap was calculated, verifying independent reports of strike locations and asset movements against corresponding diplomatic statements issued from Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang. Conflicting open-source intelligence reports regarding battlefield damage were weighed by corroborating initial local media claims against secondary visual confirmation from independent geospatial analysis groups. The analysis strictly adheres to a neutral, factual methodology, filtering state propaganda to extract verifiable logistical, financial, and military data points.

Appendix B: Glossary of Acronyms

  • ADIZ: Air Defense Identification Zone
  • BRICS: An intergovernmental organization comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates.
  • CBDC: Central Bank Digital Currency
  • CENTCOM: United States Central Command
  • CIPS: Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (China)
  • DPRK: Democratic People’s Republic of Korea
  • GCC: Gulf Cooperation Council
  • HEU: Highly Enriched Uranium
  • IRGC: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
  • ISR: Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance
  • KCNA: Korean Central News Agency
  • NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization
  • NORAD: North American Aerospace Defense Command
  • OSINT: Open-Source Intelligence
  • SWIFT: Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication
  • UAE: United Arab Emirates

Appendix C: Glossary of Foreign Words

  • Artesh: The conventional military forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, operating parallel to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
  • Basij: A paramilitary volunteer militia established in Iran, operating as a subordinate force to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, primarily utilized for internal security and suppression of domestic dissent.
  • Chuxin: An unregistered Chinese financial intermediary vehicle utilized to channel capital between state traders and construction firms to bypass international sanctions on Iran.
  • Geran: The Russian designation for the Shahed-series of loitering munitions (suicide drones) developed by Iran and heavily utilized by Russian forces in Eastern Europe.
  • Khamenei: Referring to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran from 1989 until his death in the opening decapitation strikes of the 2026 conflict.
  • Knesset: The unicameral national legislature of the State of Israel.
  • Majlis: The Islamic Consultative Assembly, the national legislative body of Iran.
  • Rodong: A family of North Korean medium-range ballistic missiles that form the technological baseline for multiple Iranian missile systems.
  • Shahab: A class of Iranian ballistic missiles, specifically the Shahab-3, which is heavily reliant on imported North Korean aerospace technology.
  • Sinosure: The China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation, a major state-owned enterprise providing export credit insurance.
  • Zhuhai Zhenrong: A Chinese state-backed energy trading company heavily involved in the purchase of Iranian crude oil.

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Sources Used

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  2. Iran Update – 1 March 2026: What Khamenei’s Death Changes | The Chertoff Group, accessed March 10, 2026, https://chertoffgroup.com/situation-report-iran-u-s-israeli-military-operations/
  3. Iran’s Reach in Latin America: Strategic Networks and U.S. Pressure in Venezuela, accessed March 10, 2026, https://gulfif.org/irans-reach-in-latin-america-strategic-networks-and-u-s-pressure-in-venezuela/
  4. Syria and the War on Iran: The Dilemma of Hostility and Neutrality – معهد السياسة والمجتمع, accessed March 10, 2026, https://politicsociety.org/2026/03/08/syria-and-the-war-on-iran-the-dilemma-of-hostility-and-neutrality/?lang=en
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  14. Trump’s Iran war will reinforce North Korea’s view that nuclear weapons are the only path to security – The Guardian, accessed March 10, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/10/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-trump-iran-war
  15. Interim council takes control in Iran after Khamenei’s death | Iran International, accessed March 10, 2026, https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603015688
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  18. Israel Strikes Tehran Regime’s Assembly of Experts, Underlining Efforts to Disrupt Succession Process, accessed March 10, 2026, https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/03/03/israel-strikes-tehran-regimes-assembly-of-experts-underlining-efforts-to-disrupt-succession-process/
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  22. Iran War: A Defining Moment for the Middle East—Global Analysis …, accessed March 10, 2026, https://www.ajc.org/iran-war-a-defining-moment-for-the-middle-east-global-analysis-from-ajc-experts
  23. For China, billions of dollars are at risk from a widening war, accessed March 10, 2026, https://m.economictimes.com/small-biz/trade/exports/insights/for-china-billions-of-dollars-are-at-risk-from-a-widening-war/articleshow/129377065.cms
  24. The Gulf that emerges from the Iran war will be very different – Atlantic Council, accessed March 10, 2026, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/the-gulf-that-emerges-from-the-iran-war-will-be-very-different/
  25. How China’s enormous bet on Iran failed, accessed March 10, 2026, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/03/06/china-iran-failure-strategy/
  26. The axis of evasion: Behind China’s oil trade with Iran and Russia – Atlantic Council, accessed March 10, 2026, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-axis-of-evasion-behind-chinas-oil-trade-with-iran-and-russia/
  27. China sets a lower economic growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026 as challenges loom, accessed March 10, 2026, https://apnews.com/article/china-congress-economy-gdp-trump-target-1822006cd39ff43505fa9a47a4581a16
  28. ‘Xi’s world order died with Khamenei’: The good, the bad, and ugly of US-Iran war for China, accessed March 10, 2026, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/trump-xi-jinping-summit-iran-war-and-china-us-iran-war-trumps-iran-war-khamenei-killing/articleshow/129216408.cms
  29. North Korea Steps Up Anti-US Rhetoric in Initial Response to Strikes Against Iran, accessed March 10, 2026, https://www.38north.org/2026/03/north-korea-steps-up-anti-us-rhetoric-in-initial-response-to-strikes-against-iran/
  30. Iran war will reinforce Kim’s view on nuclear power – Taipei Times, accessed March 10, 2026, https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2026/03/11/2003853638
  31. Korean Peninsula Update, March 3, 2026 | ISW, accessed March 10, 2026, https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/korean-peninsula-update-march-3-2026/
  32. Iran Update Evening Special Report, February 28, 2026 | ISW, accessed March 10, 2026, https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-evening-special-report-february-28-2026/
  33. North Korea: Revisionist Ambitions and the Changing International Order – CSIS, accessed March 10, 2026, https://www.csis.org/analysis/north-korea-revisionist-ambitions-and-changing-international-order
  34. Could Iran buy nuclear weapons from North Korea?, accessed March 10, 2026, https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2025/11/could-iran-buy-nuclear-weapons-from-north-korea/
  35. Statement on the Recent Developments in the Middle East, accessed March 10, 2026, https://www.globalr2p.org/publications/statement-on-the-recent-developments-in-the-middle-east/
  36. MIDDLE EAST LIVE 4 March: Conflict continues across region amid US, Israeli and Iranian strikes | UN News, accessed March 10, 2026, https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/03/1167076
  37. Strategic Assessment of the Iranian Conflict: Deterrence Attrition, Subterranean Resilience and the Mojtaba Khamenei Succession – https://debuglies.com, accessed March 10, 2026, https://debuglies.com/2026/03/10/strategic-assessment-of-the-iranian-conflict-deterrence-attrition-subterranean-resilience-and-the-mojtaba-khamenei-succession/
  38. What you need to know about the U.S. war on Iran – AFSC.org, accessed March 10, 2026, https://afsc.org/news/what-you-need-know-about-us-war-iran
  39. Weekly Sanctions Update: November 24, 2025 – Steptoe, accessed March 10, 2026, https://www.steptoe.com/en/news-publications/international-compliance-blog/weekly-sanctions-update-november-24-2025.html
  40. CRINK Economic Ties: Uneven Patterns of Collaboration – CSIS, accessed March 10, 2026, https://www.csis.org/analysis/crink-economic-ties-uneven-patterns-collaboration
  41. China’s Facilitation of Sanctions and Export Control Evasion, accessed March 10, 2026, https://www.uscc.gov/research/chinas-facilitation-sanctions-and-export-control-evasion
  42. The 2026 Iran War and Its Global Impact on Construction Supply Chains | Baker Donelson, accessed March 10, 2026, https://www.bakerdonelson.com/the-2026-iran-war-and-its-global-impact-on-construction-supply-chains
  43. The Impacts of the Iran Attack on Supply Chains and Global Business – ISM, accessed March 10, 2026, https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/news-publications/inside-supply-management-magazine/blog/2026/2026-03/the-impacts-of-the-iran-attack-on-supply-chains-and-global-business/
Analytics and Reports, Country Analytics, History and Socio-Political Analytics

Cognitive Warfare: The New Face of Disinformation – How Americans Are Being Polarized by Foreign Nations

The United States enters the mid-2020s facing an unprecedented challenge to its internal stability, characterized by the systematic exploitation of domestic political and social divisions by foreign state and non-state actors. This report, synthesized from the collective perspectives of national security, foreign affairs, and intelligence analysis, identifies a shift from traditional election interference toward a more pervasive doctrine of “cognitive warfare.” The primary objectives of these foreign adversaries—most notably the Russian Federation, the People’s Republic of China, Islamic Republic of Iran and North Korea—are to degrade the social fabric of American life, paralyze the federal government through internal discord, and undermine global confidence in the democratic model.1

The methodology of these actors involves the synchronization of deceptive narratives with significant geopolitical milestones and the weaponization of emerging technologies like generative artificial intelligence. By leveraging the “attention economy” of social media, which prioritizes engagement over accuracy, foreign entities have effectively “outsourced” the distribution of propaganda to unsuspecting American citizens and domestic influencers.4 The result is a fractured information ecosystem where “shared epistemic foundations”—the basic agreement on facts required for governance—are increasingly absent.7

The intent of this report is to provide an analysis of the threat landscape to facilitate civilian awareness. It details the specific actors involved, the psychological and technical tactics they employ, and the resulting impacts on public safety and institutional trust. Crucially, the analysis concludes that technical and governmental solutions alone are insufficient; the primary line of defense is an informed and analytically rigorous public. By adopting strategies such as lateral reading and psychological “pulse checks,” Americans can guard against deception and ensure that their democratic decisions are informed by reality rather than synthetic manipulation.9

The Strategic Environment: Polarization as a Weapon of War

The contemporary threat to the United States homeland is no longer confined to kinetic or traditional cyber-attacks. National security analysis indicates that polarization itself has been operationalized by foreign adversaries as a strategic weapon.7 The intelligence community defines this environment through the lens of Foreign Malign Influence (FMI), encompassing subversive, covert, or coercive activities conducted by foreign governments or their proxies.11 Unlike historical “active measures” that were often limited in scope and speed, modern FMI leverages digital connectivity to achieve global reach at minimal cost.12

The Philosophy of Cognitive Warfare

Foreign affairs analysis suggests that adversaries have shifted their focus to “cognitive warfare,” a doctrine that targets the human mind as the “final domain” of conflict. This approach operates in the psychological and informational spheres, exploiting human cognition to manipulate beliefs, emotions, and decision-making processes.13 The objective is not necessarily to convince the public of a specific lie, but rather to create a state of perpetual confusion and skepticism where “seeing is no longer believing”.5

Tactical ConceptIntelligence DefinitionStrategic Objective
Cognitive WarfareExploitation of human vulnerabilities to induce behavioral and perceptual shifts.Erosion of democratic norms and institutional trust.
Narrative SynchronizationAligning manipulative content with geopolitical events (e.g., NATO summits).Creating “information asymmetry” during high-stakes moments.
Algorithmic TargetingUsing social media data to deliver tailored content to specific demographics.Reinforcing “echo chambers” and accelerating “sorting” of the public.
Active MeasuresCovert operations to influence world events (mimicry, disinformation, agents of influence).Weakening U.S. global standing and internal cohesion.
Source: 13

The Crisis of Democratic Legitimacy

The integration of foreign disinformation into the domestic political discourse has resulted in what scholars term a “crisis of democratic legitimacy”.7 Intelligence assessments from 2024 and 2025 reveal that when citizens are repeatedly exposed to narratives questioning the integrity of electoral processes or the competence of mainstream institutions, they develop “affective polarization”—an intense, emotional hostility toward those with different political views.2 Foreign actors do not “create” these divisions; instead, they act as “force multipliers,” identifying existing societal “fault lines” and driving wedges into them to ensure they remain unbridgeable.2

Principal Actors: Motivations and Strategic Intent

A coordinated “Axis of Autocracy”—consisting of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea—is increasingly working in concert to challenge the U.S.-led international order.3 While their specific methods vary, their shared goal is to create a more permissive environment for authoritarianism by distracting the United States with internal crises.1

The Russian Federation: The Architect of Disinformation

Russia remains the pre-eminent and most active foreign influence threat to the United States.2 Moscow’s overarching goal is to weaken the United States, undermine Washington’s support for Ukraine, and fracture Western alliances.2 Intelligence analysis shows that the Kremlin views election periods as moments of extreme vulnerability for democracy and seeks to amplify divisive rhetoric that makes the U.S. system look weak.2

The “Doppelgänger” campaign remains one of the most significant Russian operations identified in recent years. This campaign involves the creation of dozens of websites that mimic legitimate U.S. news organizations, such as The Washington Post and Fox News, to publish fabricated articles that align with Russian interests.4 Furthermore, Russia has adopted a “laundered” approach to influence, funneling millions of dollars to domestic companies to pay American influencers to spread Kremlin talking points under the guise of independent commentary.4

The People’s Republic of China: Comprehensive Economic and Cyber Pressure

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) represents the “most comprehensive and robust” strategic competitor to the United States.15 Beijing’s influence operations are often “whole-of-government” campaigns designed to fend off challenges to its legitimacy, gain an edge in economic and military power, and silence criticism from diaspora communities.1

While the PRC has historically been more cautious than Russia in its direct influence of U.S. domestic politics, recent reports indicate a shift toward more assertive tactics. During the 2024 election cycle, the PRC used bot accounts to post negative content about congressional candidates it deemed anti-China.4 Beyond information manipulation, the PRC’s strategy involves “weaponizing supply chain dependencies” and pre-positioning cyber actors on U.S. critical infrastructure to exert coercive pressure in the event of a conflict.15

The Islamic Republic of Iran: Escalation of Malign Activity

Iran has significantly increased its effort to influence the American public and political environment as of 2025.2 Tehran’s strategy is multi-pronged, seeking to stoke social discord, undermine confidence in the electoral process, and retaliate for U.S. and Israeli military actions in the Middle East.2 Iranian operations have evolved from simple social media propaganda to sophisticated cyber-espionage and direct physical threats.

In late 2024, the Department of Justice announced criminal charges against members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps for hacking into a presidential campaign and leaking stolen documents to the media.4 Perhaps most concerning to the intelligence community is Iran’s orchestration of “murder-for-hire” plots intended to assassinate high-profile U.S. officials, including Donald Trump, representing a dramatic escalation from digital influence to physical violence.4

State ActorPrimary MotivationCore Tactic in 2025Key Impact on US Public
RussiaHalting aid to Ukraine; fracturing NATO.Mimicking news outlets; paying domestic influencers.Deepened partisan hostility; distrust of mainstream news.
ChinaProtecting CCP legitimacy; economic dominance.Cyber pre-positioning; targeting anti-China candidates.Economic anxiety; concerns over infrastructure safety.
IranRetaliation for strikes; ending US presence in ME.Hacking and leaking campaign data; assassination plots.Political chaos; fear for the safety of public leaders.
North KoreaNormalizing nuclear status; financial theft.Cyber theft and money laundering via TCOs.Financial instability; critical infrastructure vulnerability.
Source: 1

Methodologies of Deception: Tactics and Technologies

Adversaries leverage a combination of psychological triggers and advanced technologies to bypass rational scrutiny and ensure their narratives gain traction within the American public.

The Rise of Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI)

The proliferation of generative AI has revolutionized the “manufacture of reality.” Tools that were once in the realm of experimental science are now routine parts of the disinformation toolkit.18

  1. Deepfake Audio and Video: AI can create near-photo-realistic visuals and clone voices with high precision. In 2025, bad actors used a voice clone of Secretary of State Marco Rubio to contact U.S. and foreign officials, attempting to gain access to sensitive accounts.18 Similarly, deepfake videos have been used to show political figures making statements they never said, such as JD Vance criticizing Elon Musk or Barack Obama expressing concerns about Donald Trump’s health.18
  2. Disaster Porn and Clickbait: AI tools like OpenAI’s Sora 2, released in late 2025, have been used to capitalize on natural disasters. During Hurricane Melissa, viral videos depicted sharks swimming in hotel pools and the destruction of Kingston Airport—events that never happened but were shared millions of times because of their sensational nature.6
  3. Chatbot Unreliability: AI chatbots, often viewed as neutral arbiters, frequently repeat information from low-quality social media posts. During a political rally in October 2025, chatbots amplified false claims that genuine news coverage was “old footage,” misleading the public about crowd size.18

Narrative Synchronization: Timing the Attack

Intelligence analysis reveals that adversaries do not release disinformation randomly. Instead, they use “narrative synchronization”—aligning their messaging with real-world geopolitical events to maximize psychological impact.13 For example, Russian narratives regarding nuclear threats or Western “provocations” are often synchronized with NATO summits or announcements of military aid to Ukraine.13 This temporal relevance increases the perceived credibility of the disinformation, as it appears linked to tangible, current events.13

The Psychology of Susceptibility: Targeting the Mind

Foreign influence operations are effective because they exploit fundamental “neutral and normal cognitive processes”.12 Adversaries systematically target specific psychological vulnerabilities:

  • Confirmation Bias and Motivated Reasoning: Individuals are more likely to believe and share information that aligns with their pre-existing beliefs, regardless of its accuracy.5
  • Affective Polarization: When people have strong negative feelings toward an opposing group, they are more susceptible to “politically aligned disinformation” that reinforces their hatred.7
  • The Power of Emotions: Content that triggers awe, amusement, or, most commonly, anger and anxiety is shared much more frequently than neutral, factual content.5
  • Fuzzy-Trace Theory: People often remember the “gist” (the general feeling) of a story rather than the “verbatim” details. Even if a story is later debunked, the negative “gist” remains in the individual’s memory.23

Case Study: Hurricane Melissa and the Chaos of 2025

The landfall of Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica in late October 2025 serves as a primary case study for how foreign-influenced narratives and AI-generated “synthetic slop” can paralyze domestic response systems.6

The Information Surge

Within thirty minutes of the hurricane’s landfall, AI-generated videos began trending on X, TikTok, and Instagram. These videos, often depicting spectacular but entirely fake destruction, racked up millions of views.6 National security analysts note that while many of these videos were created for financial gain (clickbait), they served the strategic interests of foreign actors by “clogging” official communication channels and drowning out safety information.6

Real-World Consequences

The disinformation surge had tangible safety costs:

  • Emergency Response Delays: False videos showing the destruction of Kingston Airport caused an unnecessary rush of citizens toward inland roads, creating traffic jams that delayed medical convoys by almost an hour.25
  • Resource Diversion: Emergency managers were forced to divert valuable time and personnel to debunking rumors—such as the “sharks in the pool” video—rather than tracking storm surge data and coordinating rescues.24
  • Erosion of Trust in Real Data: The prevalence of AI fakes led the public to question the validity of genuine videos, such as those from the U.S. Air Force “Hurricane Hunters”.26

This event highlights the “liar’s dividend”—a state where the presence of many fakes allows individuals to deny the authenticity of real evidence.25

The Shifting Institutional Landscape of Defense

The ability of the United States to defend against foreign malign influence has undergone significant changes in 2025, primarily due to shifts in executive policy and agency mandates.

The Dissolution of the Foreign Influence Task Force (FITF)

Historically, the FBI’s Foreign Influence Task Force (FITF) served as the primary bridge between the intelligence community and social media companies. Its role was to share actionable intelligence about specific foreign-backed accounts so that platforms could use their discretion to remove them.11 However, in February 2025, Attorney General Pam Bondi ordered the dissolution of the FITF, signaling a retreat from the government’s role in investigating foreign disinformation on social media.27

Gutting of Election Security and Global Engagement

Simultaneously, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) saw its election security mission significantly curtailed. Operations focused on countering disinformation and protecting voting systems were “paused” for review in early 2025, and many expert staff members were placed on administrative leave.27 At the State Department, the Global Engagement Center (GEC), founded in 2016 to coordinate communications against Russian and Chinese influence, had its budget mandate expire and its activities reduced to a “zero-content-involvement” policy.27

AgencyFormer Role (Pre-2025)Current Status (2026)Operational Impact
FBI (FITF)Real-time identification of foreign accounts; SMC briefings.Dissolved February 2025.Loss of centralized intelligence sharing with tech companies.
DHS (CISA)Securing election infrastructure; debunking fakes.Election security activities “paused”; staff on leave.Vulnerability of local officials to cyber and influence threats.
State (GEC)Global counter-propaganda efforts.Funding expired; “zero-content” policy adopted.Reduced U.S. voice in countering autocratic narratives abroad.
FBI (Election Command Post)24/7 monitoring of threats during voting cycles.Operations limited to criminal acts only.Narrower window for identifying “perception hacking” campaigns.
Source: 4

National security analysts warn that these institutional rollbacks represent a “gift on a silver platter” to adversaries like Russia and China, who are now more active than ever in their interference efforts.28 In the absence of federal coordination, the responsibility for defense has shifted to fragmented civil society actors who lack the intelligence and resources of the federal government.27

Civilian Defense: Guarding Against Deception

In an environment of reduced institutional protection, the individual citizen must act as a primary node of defense. Foreign affairs and intelligence analysts recommend a series of practical, “cognitive-first” strategies to mitigate the impact of disinformation.

The Core Strategy: Lateral Reading

Research from the Stanford History Education Group (SHEG) demonstrates that “lateral reading” is the most effective way to determine the truthfulness of online information.9 Unlike “vertical reading”—scrolling down a single webpage and looking for professional-looking fonts or “About” pages—lateral reading involves leaving the source to see what other trusted sources say about it.9

  1. Open New Tabs: When you encounter a sensational claim, don’t read the article yet. Instead, open three or four new browser tabs.
  2. Search the Source: Search for the name of the organization or the author. Use Wikipedia or specialized news literacy sites to see if the source has a history of bias or spreading misinformation.9
  3. Cross-Reference the Facts: Check if major, reputable news outlets are reporting the same story. If a “massive scandal” or “disaster” is only being reported by one obscure website or social media account, it is likely false.32

Technical Checks for Deepfakes and AI Content

While AI tools are improving, there are still physical and geometric inconsistencies that can be identified with a “gut check” and careful observation.26

Verification AreaDeepfake Indicator (Red Flag)Authentic Indicator
Facial TextureOverly smooth “airbrushed” skin; pores missing; unnatural blinking.Natural asymmetries; visible pores; irregular blinking patterns.
Lighting/ShadowsShadows pointing toward the light source; flickering around the eyes.Consistent lighting based on identifiable light sources.
Geometric PhysicsBuildings with multiple “vanishing points”; garbled text on signs.Consistent architectural perspective; legible signage.
Audio PatternsLack of breathing; robotic inflection; mouth movements out of sync.Natural cadence; rhythmic breathing; synchronized lip movements.
Logic/ContextMagazine-quality beauty in a crisis zone; anachronistic vehicles.Visuals match the setting; historical/weather data matches the claim.
Source: 19

Psychological Resilience: The Emotional “Pulse Check”

Because disinformation is designed to bypass logic and trigger emotion, the most powerful defense is self-awareness.10 Before clicking “share” or forming a hardened opinion, citizens should ask themselves:

  1. Am I having a heightened emotional reaction? Disinformation is often “emotional and arousing,” designed to make the reader feel awe, amusement, anxiety, or anger.12
  2. Does this align too perfectly with my existing beliefs? If a story seems “too good to be true” because it makes your political rivals look bad, it is a prime candidate for disinformation targeting your confirmation bias.7
  3. Would I question this if it came from the “other side”? Applying a neutral standard to all information, regardless of the source, is the foundation of digital citizenship.10

Verification Tools for the Public

Several free tools are available to help civilians perform their own forensic analysis:

  • Reverse Image Search (Google/TinEye): Allows users to find the original source of an image and see if it was taken from a different context or an old event.10
  • TrueMedia.org: A free service that analyzes images, audio, and video for hidden mathematical signatures of AI generation.34
  • RumorGuard / Checkology: Platforms that provide real-world practice in spotting common tactics used to mislead and evaluate sources for credibility.33
  • Metadata Check: By right-clicking an image and selecting “Properties” (PC) or “Get Info” (Mac), users can sometimes see the original creation date and the software used, which may contradict the claimed story.34

Conclusion: Rebuilding the Shared Reality

The analysis conducted by this joint team of analysts indicates that the United States is currently the target of a sustained, multi-front campaign of cognitive warfare. Foreign adversaries—principally Russia, China, and Iran—have moved beyond the era of simple “fake news” into a period of sophisticated “synthetic reality” designed to exacerbate domestic polarization.2 By weaponizing the psychological mechanisms of confirmation bias and moral outrage, and amplifying them through generative AI, these actors have successfully turned the American information ecosystem against itself.7

The institutional shifts of 2025, which have reduced federal oversight of foreign influence operations, have effectively decentralized the defense of the homeland. The stability of the American democratic system now rests more than ever on the “epistemic resilience” of its citizens. The results of the 2025 Hurricane Melissa disinformation crisis serve as a stark warning: in a digital world, information failure leads directly to physical danger.24

For the average American, the path forward is not to stop consuming information, but to change how it is consumed. By prioritizing analytical scrutiny over emotional reaction and adopting the rigorous verification habits of professionals—such as lateral reading and technical cross-referencing—citizens can neutralize the “force multiplier” effect of foreign adversaries.9 The goal of foreign influence is to make the public believe that nothing is true and everything is possible. The civilian defense, therefore, is to insist on a shared reality based on evidence, skepticism of the sensational, and an unwavering commitment to the truth.

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Sources Used

  1. Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence … – DNI.gov, accessed January 31, 2026, https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf
  2. Election Security: U.S. Government’s Efforts to Protect the 2024 U.S. Election from Foreign Malign Influence – United States Department of State, accessed January 31, 2026, https://2021-2025.state.gov/briefings-foreign-press-centers/protecting-the-2024-election-from-foreign-malign-influence/
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