Category Archives: Military Analytics

From Sword and Shield to Scalpel and Algorithm: The Evolution of Russian Special Designation Forces

The evolutionary trajectory of Russian special forces is a complex narrative defined by a persistent, foundational dichotomy. From their inception in the crucible of the Bolshevik Revolution, two distinct lineages of “special purpose” units emerged and developed in parallel: one rooted in the state’s internal security apparatus and the other in the military’s external intelligence directorate. This dual-track evolution, born of different masters, mandates, and philosophies, is the single most critical factor in understanding the structure, capabilities, and employment of these forces, from the Soviet era to the present day. The political lineage prioritized regime preservation, while the military lineage focused on achieving strategic advantage in a potential conflict with external adversaries. This division created distinct organizational cultures that would shape their development for over a century, fostering rivalry and preventing the formation of a unified command structure akin to Western models.

Section 1: Genesis of the ‘Special Purpose’ Concept

The very concept of Spetsial’nogo Naznacheniya, or “special purpose,” first took shape not on a foreign battlefield, but within the chaotic interior of the nascent Soviet state. The earliest progenitors of these forces were the Chasti Osobogo Naznacheniya (Units for Special Use), established in 1918 to act as the armed fist of the Bolshevik regime against its internal enemies.1 These units were instrumental in suppressing anti-Communist movements and rebellions, most notably the Kronstadt rebellion of 1921, where they were infamously used as blocking detachments to “increase the motivation” of regular Red Army troops.1 Their operational control fell to the All-Russian Extraordinary Commission, or Cheka, the state security organ founded in 1917 with the explicit aim to investigate, arrest, and execute enemies of the revolution.2 The Cheka and its successors—the OGPU and the NKVD—thus established the first pillar of Russian special forces: an instrument of political power and internal control, the veritable “sword and shield of the Communist Party”.2 These units were defined by their loyalty to the state security apparatus, their focus on internal threats, and their role in ensuring the stability of the regime.

Concurrent with the rise of these internal security forces, a second, distinct lineage was being forged within the military. In 1918, the Red Army established its own military intelligence agency, the Main Intelligence Directorate, or GRU.3 While the Cheka looked inward, the GRU looked outward, tasked with collecting military-relevant information on foreign adversaries. During the Second World War, this mission set expanded to include direct action and unconventional warfare. The Red Army began to employ front- and army-level SPETSNAZ units for deep reconnaissance and sabotage behind German lines.5 These forces were generally divided into two types: engineer-based demolition units and intelligence-focused reconnaissance teams.5 A prime example was “Unit 9903,” formed in the summer of 1941 and subordinated to the Western Front’s intelligence staff. Composed of highly motivated Komsomol youth, athletes, and hunters, its small groups were deployed deep into the German rear during the defense of Moscow.1 Their missions were multifaceted: they attacked small German garrisons, ambushed staff vehicles to capture prisoners for interrogation (a practice known as capturing “tongues”), destroyed supply depots, and established contact with and provided assistance to local partisan movements.5 This experience established the second pillar of Russian special forces: a military tool designed for reconnaissance, sabotage, and unconventional warfare in direct support of conventional military campaigns. This military track, under the command of the General Staff, was defined by its focus on external military objectives and its integration with the broader armed forces.

Section 2: Cold War Doctrine and Structure

Following the conclusion of the Second World War, the Soviet Union demobilized most of its specialized reconnaissance and sabotage units.1 However, the dawn of the Cold War and the emergence of a new, existential threat—NATO’s tactical nuclear weapons—compelled a rapid and comprehensive reorganization of these forces. The doctrine that would define GRU Spetsnaz for the next four decades was not one of counter-insurgency or counter-terrorism, but of strategic anti-nuclear warfare. The entire structure, training regimen, and operational purpose of these revitalized units were singularly focused on their ability to infiltrate deep into Western Europe in the event of a major conflict and neutralize the very weapons that could halt a massive Warsaw Pact armored offensive across the Fulda Gap.

This strategic imperative drove the formalization of the GRU Spetsnaz structure. In 1949, the first “independent reconnaissance companies of special purpose” were formed, with the explicit mission of targeting and eliminating enemy tactical nuclear delivery systems, such as the American MGR-3 Little John battlefield support rocket.6 As the range and sophistication of NATO’s nuclear arsenal grew, so too did the reach and size of the Spetsnaz. In 1957, these companies were expanded into five battalions, and in 1962, the first Spetsnaz brigades were established.6 These brigades were designed for deep penetration operations, with a doctrinal reach of up to 750 kilometers behind enemy lines, specifically to destroy critical U.S. weapons systems like the MGM-52 Lance, MGM-29 Sergeant, and, most importantly, the MGM-31 Pershing ballistic missile.6 By the late 1970s, the GRU commanded a formidable force of reportedly 20 Spetsnaz brigades and 41 separate companies, a strategic asset poised to cripple NATO’s command, control, and nuclear capabilities in the opening hours of a war.6

While the GRU was honing its military spearhead for a potential hot war, the KGB was forging its own elite units to contend with the changing political and security landscape of the 1970s. The rise of international terrorism, exemplified by the 1972 Munich massacre, exposed a capability gap that the military-focused GRU Spetsnaz were not designed to fill. In response, KGB Chairman Yuri Andropov ordered the creation of Spetsgruppa “A,” universally known as Alpha Group, on July 28, 1974.7 Alpha was established as a dedicated, elite counter-terrorism and hostage rescue unit, a political tool for handling high-stakes domestic and international crises. In 1981, it was joined by Spetsgruppa “V,” or Vympel Group, which was conceived for a different purpose: clandestine sabotage, intelligence gathering, and “active measures” deep inside foreign territory, effectively serving as the KGB’s own foreign special operations force.7

The distinct roles of these parallel forces were occasionally brought into sharp focus. The GRU Spetsnaz conducted their first major foreign operation in August 1968, when they disguised themselves as a civilian flight crew and passengers requesting an emergency landing to seize Prague’s international airport, paving the way for the Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia.6 The most famous—and perhaps only—major joint operation was Operation Storm-333 in December 1979. This mission to assassinate Afghan President Hafizullah Amin was a textbook example of the convergence of the two spearheads. The GRU provided the specialized military muscle in the form of the 154th Spetsnaz Detachment, the so-called “Muslim Battalion,” composed of soldiers from Soviet Central Asia who could blend in more easily. The KGB, meanwhile, provided the surgical political action teams from its Alpha and Zenit groups to lead the direct assault on the Tajbeg Palace.2 The successful operation, which triggered the decade-long Soviet-Afghan War, perfectly illustrated the division of labor: the GRU executed a complex military special operation, while the KGB conducted a high-stakes political assassination.

Section 3: The Soviet-Era Arsenal

During the Cold War, the “elite” status of Spetsnaz operators was defined more by the strategic importance of their mission and the rigor of their training than by access to a bespoke arsenal of exotic weaponry. For the most part, they were equipped with the same robust, reliable, and mass-produced small arms issued to the broader Soviet Armed Forces. The primary assault rifle was the 7.62x39mm AKM, the modernized variant of the iconic AK-47, and its folding-stock version, the AKMS, favored for its compactness by airborne and mechanized troops.12 For designated marksman duties, the standard weapon was the 7.62x54mmR Dragunov SVD, a semi-automatic rifle prized for its accuracy and reliability.12

However, the unique requirements of their clandestine mission set—reconnaissance, sabotage, and assassination deep behind enemy lines—drove early and continuous innovation in the field of suppressed weaponry. The Soviet approach to this challenge was characterized by pragmatism, focusing on adapting existing, proven platforms rather than designing entirely new systems from the ground up. This philosophy was a direct descendant of wartime expedients like the “Bramit device,” a simple but effective clip-on silencer for the Mosin-Nagant M1891/30 rifle.13

In the post-war era, this approach culminated in the development of the PBS-1 (Pribor dlya Beshumnoj Strelby – Device for Noiseless Firing) in the late 1950s.13 The PBS-1 was a large, quick-detachable suppressor designed for the AK and AKM rifles. Its use necessitated the development of specialized 7.62x39mm “US” (Umenshennaya Skorost – Reduced Velocity) ammunition. This subsonic cartridge featured a significantly heavier 12.5-gram (193-grain) bullet and a reduced powder charge to keep its velocity below the speed of sound, thus eliminating the supersonic crack of the projectile.13 The reduced energy of the “US” round was insufficient to reliably cycle the Kalashnikov’s gas-operated action. To overcome this, the PBS-1 incorporated a critical design feature: a disposable rubber wipe or baffle near the end cap. Upon firing, this wipe would temporarily seal the suppressor, trapping enough gas pressure to cycle the weapon’s action. While an ingenious solution, it was also a technical compromise; the rubber wipe had a limited service life of about 200 rounds and degraded the suppressor’s performance with each shot.13 This system, while effective for its time, highlighted the inherent limitations of simply adapting a conventional weapon for a specialized role.

In terms of personal protection, Soviet development significantly lagged behind that of its Western counterparts. Throughout much of the Cold War, the standard-issue body armor, when available at all, was the 6B2 vest. This was not true body armor in the modern sense but rather a flak jacket, analogous to the American M-69 vest from the Vietnam era. It was constructed of layers of nylon fabric and small titanium plates, designed primarily to protect the wearer from low-velocity fragmentation and shrapnel from artillery and grenades. It offered virtually no protection against rifle rounds, reflecting a doctrine that prioritized offensive mass over the survivability of the individual soldier.14 For the Spetsnaz operator of the Cold War, stealth, skill, and surprise were the primary means of survival, as their issued equipment offered little in the way of ballistic protection.

Part II: The Asymmetric Challenge (1979–2000)

The final decade of the Soviet Union and the first decade of the Russian Federation presented its special forces with two fundamentally different, yet equally formative, asymmetric conflicts. The decade-long counter-insurgency campaign in Afghanistan forced a doctrinal pivot away from the theoretical battlefields of Europe and provided a brutal, real-world laboratory for developing new tactics. Subsequently, the two wars in Chechnya plunged these forces into the crucible of high-intensity urban combat, a radically different environment that demanded further adaptation and drove a revolution in specialized weaponry. These two conflicts reshaped Spetsnaz from a force designed for a single, strategic mission against NATO into a more versatile, combat-hardened tool capable of operating across a spectrum of irregular warfare.

Section 4: Trial by Fire in Afghanistan (1979-1989)

The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979 immediately rendered the primary Cold War doctrine of GRU Spetsnaz—strategic anti-nuclear warfare in Europe—irrelevant. The conflict demanded a rapid and painful pivot to a role for which they were not explicitly trained or equipped: counter-insurgency (COIN). On the unforgiving terrain of Afghanistan, large, conventional Soviet formations like motorized rifle divisions proved ponderous and highly vulnerable to the hit-and-run guerrilla tactics of the Mujahideen.15 In this environment, the Spetsnaz, alongside the VDV airborne troops, quickly emerged as the Soviet Union’s most effective and feared combat force. Their combination of elite training, high motivation, and tactical flexibility made them, along with Soviet attack helicopters, the two assets the Mujahideen truly respected and feared.15

The quintessential Spetsnaz mission of the war became the interdiction of Mujahideen supply lines from Pakistan and Iran. This campaign, officially designated “Operation Curtain” but more commonly known as the “Caravan War,” ran from March 1984 to April 1988 and became the defining operational experience for a generation of Spetsnaz operators.17 The tactical template was consistent and effective. During the day, Spetsnaz reconnaissance teams would be inserted by Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters to observe suspected caravan routes. At night, these teams, or larger ambush groups, would move to pre-selected choke points along the trails to intercept the supply columns.17 These helicopter-borne assault and ambush techniques, perfected through years of constant practice, became a core competency of modern Russian special forces. The operation achieved considerable tactical success; Soviet estimates claim that Spetsnaz units killed approximately 17,000 Mujahideen, captured 825 prisoners, and destroyed or captured 990 supply caravans over the four-year period.17

However, this tactical prowess existed within a framework of profound strategic and operational flaws, making the Spetsnaz experience in Afghanistan a classic case study in winning battles while losing the war. Despite their successes, it was estimated that Operation Curtain managed to interdict only 12-15% of the total volume of weapons and supplies flowing to the Mujahideen—a tactical annoyance, but by no means a strategic knockout blow.17 The effectiveness of individual units was consistently undermined by systemic failures. Ambushes were frequently compromised by poor operational security, particularly the excessive and rigid radio reporting procedures mandated by higher command, which allowed the Mujahideen to monitor their movements.18 The issued equipment was often woefully inadequate for the environment. Standard-issue leather army boots were heavy, uncomfortable for mountain operations, and left distinctive tracks that betrayed ambush positions.18 Even the design of armored vehicles like the BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle, with a main gun that could not elevate high enough to engage targets on steep valley slopes, was a critical flaw the Mujahideen expertly exploited.15 This persistent disconnect between the skill and bravery of the operators on the ground and the flawed strategic direction from above was a key lesson of the conflict, demonstrating that even the most elite special forces cannot achieve strategic objectives without being integrated into a coherent, well-supported, and intelligently led campaign.

Section 5: The Urban Crucible of Chechnya (1994-2000)

If Afghanistan forged the Spetsnaz into a capable counter-insurgency force, the wars in Chechnya reforged them in the fires of high-intensity urban combat. The First Chechen War (1994-1996) began with one of the most catastrophic defeats in modern Russian military history: the New Year’s Eve 1994 assault on Grozny. The operation was a textbook example of military incompetence, characterized by a complete underestimation of the enemy, non-existent intelligence preparation, the use of ad-hoc units with no cohesion, and a total breakdown of command and control between different services.19 Russian armored columns, sent into the city without adequate infantry support, were systematically trapped and annihilated by well-prepared and highly motivated Chechen fighters who used the urban terrain to their maximum advantage.19 While Spetsnaz units were among the few formations that were properly trained and prepared for the fight, their tactical competence was an island in a sea of conventional military failure and could not salvage a fundamentally broken strategic plan.11

The lessons from this disaster were learned in blood and applied with brutal resolve in the Second Chechen War (1999-2000). The second Russian assault on Grozny was a starkly different affair. Instead of a hasty, unsupported armored thrust, the advance was preceded by a weeks-long, overwhelming air and artillery bombardment that systematically reduced large parts of the city to rubble. The operational design was to use massive, indiscriminate firepower to obliterate Chechen defensive positions, thereby minimizing casualties among Russian ground troops.19 Command and control were unified under a single military hierarchy, and coordination between air and ground forces was vastly improved.19

In this new operational context, Spetsnaz played a critical and multifaceted role. They were the tip of the spear, conducting reconnaissance to identify Chechen strongpoints for the subsequent artillery and air strikes. They led smaller, more effective assault groups in methodical, house-to-house clearing operations, replacing the disastrous large-scale maneuvers of the first war.19 This brutal urban environment honed their skills in close-quarters battle (CQB), explosive breaching, and small-unit maneuver in a complex, three-dimensional battlespace to a level unmatched by any previous experience. Furthermore, the Chechen Wars cemented the importance of a key Spetsnaz tactic for future conflicts: the cultivation and use of proxy forces. The successful employment of pro-Russian Chechen militias, often trained and advised by Spetsnaz operators, provided loyal local forces that could hold territory and conduct politically sensitive operations, allowing Russia to achieve its objectives with a smaller and more deniable footprint.3 This model of leveraging local allies would become a cornerstone of Russian operations in the 21st century.

Section 6: Weapons Forged in Conflict

The intense and varied combat environments of Afghanistan and Chechnya exposed critical capability gaps in the Spetsnaz arsenal and directly spurred a period of remarkable innovation in Russian special purpose weapons design. The pragmatic Soviet-era philosophy of simply adapting existing platforms proved insufficient for the demands of modern asymmetric warfare. This led to a paradigm shift towards the development of purpose-built, integrated weapon systems designed to solve specific tactical problems identified on the battlefield.

The most significant of these developments was the 9x39mm “revolution.” Experience in Afghanistan quickly revealed that the standard suppressed AKM firing subsonic “US” ammunition was almost completely ineffective against adversaries who were beginning to acquire even rudimentary body armor.13 This urgent operational requirement—the need to defeat protected targets stealthily at ranges beyond that of a pistol—was the direct catalyst for the “Vintorez” program at the Central Institute for Precision Machine Building (TsNII TochMash). The solution was holistic, involving the simultaneous design of a new family of ammunition and the platforms to fire it. The resulting 9x39mm cartridge was loaded with a long, heavy projectile that retained significant energy at subsonic velocities. Two primary loads were developed: the SP-5 for precision sniper work and the SP-6, which featured a hardened steel core penetrator capable of defeating military body armor at ranges of several hundred meters.13

To fire this new ammunition, two groundbreaking weapons were adopted in 1987: the VSS (Vintovka Snayperskaya Spetsialnaya – Special Sniper Rifle) and the AS Val (Avtomat Spetsialnyj – Special Assault Rifle).12 These were not merely rifles with suppressors attached; they were integrally suppressed systems designed from the ground up for clandestine operations. The VSS, with its skeletonized wooden stock and ability to mount a PSO-1 scope, provided unprecedented quiet precision, while the AS Val, with its side-folding metal stock and 20-round magazine, offered a compact and silent source of automatic fire. These weapons proved immensely popular during the Chechen Wars, where their combination of stealth and lethality was perfectly suited for the close-quarters combat of urban environments.13

The demand for compact, powerful weapons for CQB and VIP protection roles, where a full-length integral suppressor was not always necessary, led to further evolution of the 9x39mm platform. In the 1990s, the SR-3 “Vikhr” (Whirlwind) was developed. It was essentially an AS Val action stripped of its integral suppressor, resulting in an extremely compact carbine that delivered the potent, armor-piercing punch of the 9x39mm round in a package similar in size to a submachine gun.21 Alongside these specialized weapons, the Chechen conflict saw Spetsnaz operators begin to move away from standardized state-issued gear. They adopted a variety of commercially produced tactical vests, such as the M23 Pioneer and Tarzan models, and wore a mix of uniforms in patterns like VSR-93 or even foreign woodland camouflage.23 This marked the beginning of a trend towards more individualized, mission-specific loadouts, reflecting the growing professionalization and autonomy of these elite units.

Part III: The Modern Reformation (2001–2021)

The dawn of the 21st century marked a period of profound transformation for Russia’s special designation forces. The lessons learned from the brutal wars in Chechnya, combined with the analysis of high-profile domestic security failures and the observation of Western military operations, catalyzed a comprehensive reformation. This era saw the formalization of a complex, multi-agency landscape of specialized units, each with a distinct mandate. Most significantly, it witnessed the creation of the Special Operations Forces Command (KSSO), a strategic-level asset designed as a precision tool for a new era of “hybrid warfare.” This new force and its evolving doctrines were tested and refined in the annexation of Crimea and the long-running intervention in Syria, while the individual operator was technologically empowered by the long-awaited introduction of the modern Ratnik combat system.

Section 7: A Fractured Landscape and the Catalyst for Change

The collapse of the Soviet Union solidified the distribution of Spetsnaz-type units across multiple, often competing, security and defense agencies. This structure was not merely a bureaucratic artifact but a logical, if complex, specialization in response to a new and varied threat landscape where the primary dangers were no longer a NATO invasion but domestic terrorism, separatism, and rampant organized crime. By the early 2000s, this fractured landscape had crystallized into several key pillars 24:

  • Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) Spetsnaz: Remaining under the Ministry of Defence, these military units retained their focus on traditional special operations roles: deep reconnaissance, direct action, and unconventional warfare in support of the armed forces. They are best understood as elite light infantry, analogous to a combination of the U.S. Army Rangers and Green Berets, rather than a clandestine “Tier 1” force.25
  • Federal Security Service (FSB) TsSN: The FSB’s Special Purpose Center (Tsentr Spetsial’nogo Naznacheniya) became the premier domestic counter-terrorism and special law enforcement body, inheriting the KGB’s most famous units. Directorate “A” (Alpha Group) is the nation’s primary hostage rescue and direct-action counter-terrorism unit, comparable to Germany’s GSG 9 or the FBI’s HRT.9 Directorate “V” (Vympel Group), having lost its original foreign sabotage mission, was repurposed to focus on counter-terrorism at strategic locations, particularly nuclear facilities, and other high-risk security operations.10
  • Rosgvardiya (National Guard): Officially formed in 2016 by presidential decree, the Rosgvardiya is a powerful internal security force that reports directly to the President of Russia. It consolidated various forces from the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD), including OMON (Otryad Mobil’nyy Osobogo Naznacheniya), a gendarmerie-type force for riot control and public security, and SOBR (Spetsial’nyy Otryad Bystrogo Reagirovaniya), elite SWAT-like units designed for high-risk arrests and combating organized crime.28
  • Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR): The SVR, Russia’s external intelligence agency, is reported to maintain its own small, highly secretive special unit known as Zaslon. Its missions are believed to include covert action, high-threat diplomatic protection, and the extraction of Russian intelligence officers from hostile environments, analogous to the CIA’s Global Response Staff.25

This specialized structure was forged in the crucible of crisis. A series of traumatic national events exposed critical weaknesses in coordination, command, and control during complex hostage situations. The 2002 Nord-Ost theatre siege in Moscow and, most devastatingly, the 2004 Beslan school hostage crisis, resulted in massive civilian casualties and were seen as tactical failures, despite the eventual neutralization of the terrorists.31 These events, coupled with the lackluster performance of the Russian military during the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, which exposed continued deficiencies in intelligence, reconnaissance, and joint operations, created an undeniable impetus for radical reform at the highest levels of the Russian state.3

Table 1: Key Russian Special Designation Forces (Post-2000)

Controlling AgencyUnit(s)Primary Role
Ministry of Defence (GU/GRU)Spetsnaz GRU BrigadesMilitary Reconnaissance, Direct Action, Unconventional Warfare
Ministry of Defence (General Staff)Special Operations Forces (SSO/KSSO)Strategic Special Operations, Political/Hybrid Warfare, Foreign Internal Defense
Federal Security Service (FSB)TsSN Directorate “A” (Alpha)Domestic Counter-Terrorism, Hostage Rescue
Federal Security Service (FSB)TsSN Directorate “V” (Vympel)Counter-Terrorism at Strategic/Nuclear Sites, Special Security Operations
National Guard (Rosgvardiya)SOBRHigh-Risk Law Enforcement, Counter-Organized Crime
National Guard (Rosgvardiya)OMONParamilitary Riot Control, Public Order, Counter-Insurgency
Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR)ZaslonEmbassy/Officer Security, Covert Action, Personnel Recovery

Section 8: The KSSO – Russia’s “Tier 1” Asset

The analysis of the failures at Beslan and the shortcomings of the 2008 Georgian campaign led the Russian leadership to a critical conclusion: they lacked a dedicated, strategic-level special operations force that could be deployed rapidly, discreetly, and decisively for politically sensitive missions under the direct control of the national command authority. The existing GRU Spetsnaz were seen as army assets, integrated into the conventional military structure, while the FSB units were primarily domestic-focused. After studying the structure and application of Western special forces, particularly the U.S. Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), Russia embarked on creating its own equivalent.32

The process began in 2009 with the creation of a Special Operations Directorate, formed by transferring elite personnel from the GRU’s 322nd Specialist Training Center at Senezh, near Moscow.34 This process culminated in the official announcement in March 2013 by the Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, of the establishment of the Special Operations Forces Command, or KSSO (Komandovanie Sil Spetsial’nykh Operatsii).33

The most crucial feature of the KSSO is its command structure. It is not subordinate to the GRU or any of the military service branches. Instead, it is a separate branch of the Armed Forces that reports directly to the Chief of the General Staff and, through him, to the Minister of Defence and the President.6 This deliberately flattened chain of command was a political choice, designed to create a force that could be used as a scalpel for strategic political objectives, free from the bureaucratic inertia of the traditional military. The KSSO is a much smaller and more selective organization than the broader Spetsnaz brigades, with an estimated strength of only 2,000-2,500 operators.31 Its mandate is to conduct the most complex, high-stakes, and clandestine missions, including foreign interventions, counter-proliferation, and foreign internal defense—tasks that define a “Tier 1” special operations force.25 The creation of the KSSO was the most significant evolution in Russian special forces since the Cold War, marking their transformation from a purely military tool into a primary instrument of geopolitics and statecraft in the era of hybrid warfare.

Section 9: The Hybrid Warfare Playbook in Crimea and Syria

The newly formed KSSO did not have to wait long for its operational debut, which would become the textbook example of 21st-century Russian hybrid warfare. In late February 2014, highly disciplined, well-equipped soldiers bearing no insignia appeared across Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. These “little green men,” or “polite people” as they were dubbed in Russian media, were operators from the KSSO and other Spetsnaz units.8 Moving with speed and precision, they seized the Crimean parliament, airports, and other strategic sites, effectively neutralizing the Ukrainian military presence on the peninsula with minimal violence.35 This coup de main created a political and military fait accompli, paving the way for a hastily organized referendum and Russia’s subsequent annexation of the territory. The operation was a masterful execution of plausible deniability and political warfare, achieving a major strategic objective without a formal declaration of war. In recognition of this success, President Vladimir Putin officially designated February 27th—the day the parliament building was seized—as the Day of the Special Operations Forces.34

If Crimea was the KSSO’s flawless debut, the Russian intervention in the Syrian Civil War, beginning in September 2015, became the live-fire laboratory where the full spectrum of modern Russian special forces capabilities was tested, refined, and proven.37 The deployment in Syria was not a single-mission operation but a long-term, multi-faceted campaign where Spetsnaz (from both the KSSO and GRU) performed a wide array of critical roles.38 They acted as forward air controllers, using advanced targeting systems to guide airstrikes from the Russian Air Force and cruise missile strikes from the Navy with deadly precision.34 They served as frontline military advisors, embedded with Syrian Army units to improve their combat effectiveness, and even established and trained new proxy forces like the “ISIS Hunters” to conduct offensive operations.3 They also engaged heavily in direct action, leading assaults and playing a pivotal role in key battles such as the multiple offensives to retake the ancient city of Palmyra from ISIS and the brutal urban fighting in Aleppo.31

These operations in Crimea and Syria are the practical application of what has become known in the West as the “Gerasimov Doctrine” of hybrid or non-linear warfare. This concept emphasizes the integrated use of military and non-military tools, with a particular focus on “military means of a concealed character, including… the actions of special-operations forces,” to achieve political and strategic goals in the “grey zone” below the threshold of conventional interstate war.8 The Syrian campaign, in particular, provided an invaluable opportunity to give a new generation of Russian officers and operators combat experience, test new equipment and tactics in a real-world environment, and perfect the TTPs for integrating SOF with airpower, conventional forces, and local proxies—a core set of lessons that would shape Russia’s preparations for future expeditionary conflicts.38

Section 10: The Ratnik Revolution and the Modern Arsenal

The reformation of Russian special forces in the 21st century was not merely doctrinal and structural; it was accompanied by a long-overdue technological revolution in the equipment of the individual soldier. For decades, the Russian infantryman, including the Spetsnaz operator, lagged significantly behind his Western counterparts in terms of personal protection, communications, and night-fighting capabilities. The “Ratnik” (Warrior) program was a comprehensive, systemic effort to close this gap and create a true “soldier of the future” system.45

First seen publicly on the “little green men” in Crimea in 2014, the Ratnik system began serial deliveries to the armed forces in 2015.45 It is not a single piece of equipment but a modular, integrated suite of over 50 components. At its core are two key elements that represent a quantum leap in survivability. The 6B45 body armor vest utilizes high-protection “Granit” ceramic plates, rated under the Russian GOST system to stop multiple hits from 7.62x39mm and 7.62x54mmR rifle rounds, including armor-piercing variants.45 This is paired with the 6B47 aramid fiber helmet, a modern composite design that is lighter than previous steel models, offers superior ballistic protection, and is designed to easily integrate communications headsets and night vision devices.45

The futuristic element of Ratnik is the “Strelets” (Musketeer) command, control, and communications (C2) system. This suite provides the soldier and, critically, the squad leader with a tactical computer, GLONASS satellite navigation, and digital communications.46 It allows for real-time tracking of friendly forces on a digital map, secure voice and data messaging, and the ability to transmit images and target coordinates up the chain of command. This system transforms the infantry squad from a collection of individuals into a networked team, dramatically improving situational awareness and enabling precision fires—a fundamental shift toward network-centric warfare.46

This technological modernization extended to small arms. While the reliable AK-74M remains a workhorse, elite units began receiving the new AK-12 and AK-15 assault rifles as part of the Ratnik program.12 These rifles feature significantly improved ergonomics, a more effective muzzle brake, and, most importantly, integrated Picatinny rails for the standardized mounting of modern optics, lasers, and lights—a feature that was a major deficiency on legacy Kalashnikovs. In the realm of precision fire, the venerable SVD is being supplemented and replaced by a new generation of advanced rifles. These include the modern semi-automatic Chukavin SVCh designated marksman rifle and high-end domestic bolt-action sniper rifles from manufacturers like Lobaev Arms and Orsis, chambered in powerful long-range calibers like.338 Lapua Magnum.22 Demonstrating a new pragmatism, Russian SOF have also adopted top-tier foreign systems when a domestic equivalent was lacking, including Austrian Steyr SSG 08 sniper rifles and Glock 17 pistols.50 The outdated 9x18mm Makarov pistol has been largely phased out in frontline units in favor of more powerful 9x19mm sidearms like the domestic MP-443 Grach, while the PP-19 Vityaz-SN has become the standard modern submachine gun.12

Table 2: Comparative Evolution of Spetsnaz Small Arms

EraPrimary RifleSuppressed SystemDMR/Sniper RifleKey Technical Driver
Cold War (pre-1979)AKM (7.62x39mm)AKM + PBS-1 SuppressorSVD (7.62x54mmR)Mass Production, Standardization
Afghanistan/Late Soviet (1979-1991)AK-74 (5.45x39mm)VSS Vintorez / AS Val (9x39mm)VSS Vintorez / SVDNeed for Stealth & Armor Penetration
Chechnya/Early Post-Soviet (1992-2008)AK-74M (5.45x39mm)VSSM / AS Val-MSV-98 (7.62x54mmR)Urban CQB Requirements
Modern/Hybrid War (2009-Present)AK-12 / AK-15 (5.45/7.62mm)VSSM / AS Val-MSVCh, Orsis T-5000, Steyr SSG 08 (.338 LM)Modularity, Optics Integration, Network-Centric Ops

Table 3: Evolution of Individual Protection Systems

EraHelmetBody ArmorProtection Level
Soviet (1980s)SSh-68 (Steel)6B2 / 6B3 (Flak Vest)Fragmentation Only
Early Post-Soviet (1990s)Sfera STSh-81 (Titanium)Various commercial vests (e.g., Korund)Limited/Variable Rifle Protection
Early Modern (2000s)6B7 (Aramid-Composite)6B23 / 6B43 (General Issue Plates)Enhanced Rifle Protection
Ratnik System (2014-Present)6B47 (Aramid)6B45 (Advanced Ceramic Plates)Integrated System, Full Rifle/AP Protection

Part IV: The Future of Russian Special Forces (2022 and Beyond)

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 represents another pivotal, and perhaps the most challenging, inflection point in the history of Russian special forces. The nature of this high-intensity, peer-level conflict has subjected their doctrines, structures, and technologies to the most severe test they have ever faced. The initial phases of the war exposed critical flaws in their employment, while the realities of the modern, drone-saturated battlefield have created an existential crisis for the very concept of traditional special operations. In response, Russia is accelerating its push towards an unmanned and cyber-centric future, envisioning a new type of special operator for a new era of warfare.

Section 11: The Meat Grinder – Lessons from High-Intensity War in Ukraine

The opening days of the 2022 invasion were marked by the catastrophic misuse of Russia’s most elite forces. In a stark departure from their intended role as specialized reconnaissance and surgical strike assets, units from the GRU Spetsnaz and the VDV were employed as conventional shock troops, tasked with leading frontal assaults on heavily defended objectives. The disastrous helicopter assault on Hostomel Airport near Kyiv, where elements of the 45th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade were mauled by Ukrainian defenders, is a prime example of this doctrinal failure.53 This repeated use of highly trained, experienced, and difficult-to-replace special operators as assault infantry resulted in devastatingly high attrition rates, particularly within the NCO and junior officer corps that form the backbone of any professional force.54 This squandering of a strategic asset represents a significant degradation of Russia’s special operations capability that will take years, if not a decade, to reconstitute.55

This misuse may stem from a catastrophic failure of initial planning, but it could also reveal a deeper, more troubling aspect of Russian military thought: a residual Soviet-era command culture that, despite the professionalization of recent decades, still views even its most elite soldiers as ultimately expendable in pursuit of a strategic goal. This stands in stark contrast to the Western approach, which treats its SOF personnel as precious, strategic assets to be deployed with great care and preserved.

Beyond the human cost, the conflict in Ukraine has created a fundamental, perhaps existential, crisis for traditional special forces doctrine. The ubiquitous presence of thousands of reconnaissance and FPV (first-person view) attack drones by both sides has created a “transparent battlefield”.56 On this battlefield, the core tenets of special operations—stealth, surprise, and the ability to operate undetected deep behind enemy lines—have been rendered nearly obsolete. A small Spetsnaz team attempting a deep infiltration is now highly likely to be detected by a persistent drone loitering overhead, turning a clandestine mission into a desperate fight for survival. This reality forces a doctrinal reckoning for all special forces globally, but especially for Russia’s: how can SOF remain relevant when they can no longer reliably hide? In response, their roles have been forced to adapt, shifting away from deep reconnaissance and towards tasks in the immediate “grey zone,” such as directing precision drone and artillery strikes, hunting high-value targets with their own FPV drones, and conducting small-scale raids supported by overwhelming unmanned aerial support.

Section 12: The Unmanned and Cyber Frontier

The war in Ukraine has unequivocally demonstrated that the future of warfare is unmanned. After initially lagging, Russia has responded to this new reality with urgency, dramatically scaling up the production, innovation, and integration of unmanned systems.56 Russian forces now extensively use a variety of UAVs for reconnaissance, real-time artillery spotting, and direct kinetic strikes using FPV drones and Lancet loitering munitions.57 To counter Ukraine’s formidable electronic warfare (EW) capabilities, Russian engineers are rapidly developing and fielding new technologies, such as fiber-optic guided drones that are immune to jamming and “sleeper” drones that can be pre-positioned near a target in a dormant state before being activated for a surprise attack.57

Recognizing that this is a permanent paradigm shift, Russia announced in late 2024 its intention to create a new, dedicated branch within its armed forces: the Unmanned Vehicle Troops, with a target completion date of late 2025.60 This move will formalize doctrine, centralize training, and streamline procurement and development for unmanned systems across all domains—air, land, and sea. This development suggests that the future role of the Spetsnaz operator will evolve from being a direct kinetic actor to a forward “systems integrator.” They will be the highly skilled human-in-the-loop at the tactical edge, capable of commanding and coordinating a network of disparate assets: directing swarms of autonomous attack drones, deploying unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) for reconnaissance and assault, and designating targets for long-range precision fires.62

This unmanned frontier is complemented by Russia’s formidable capabilities in cyberspace, which have become an integral tool of modern special operations. The GRU, in particular, operates some of the world’s most notorious state-sponsored cyber units, including Unit 26165 (also known as APT28 or Fancy Bear) and Unit 74455 (Sandworm).3 These units are primary instruments of hybrid warfare, conducting a spectrum of operations from espionage and election interference to disruptive and destructive cyberattacks. Their attack on the Viasat satellite communications network, which disrupted Ukrainian military command and control in the opening hours of the 2022 invasion, demonstrates the critical role of cyber warfare as a preparatory and supporting element for both special and conventional military operations.64

Section 13: Speculative Futures – Doctrine, Structure, and the ‘Sotnik’ Soldier

Despite the profound tactical lessons of the Ukraine war, current Russian military discourse suggests a reluctance to fundamentally alter pre-war strategic concepts. The prevailing view among the military elite appears to be that their failures were the result of poor execution and underestimation of Western support for Ukraine, not a flawed core doctrine.58 Consequently, their focus is not on abandoning the concept of rapid, decisive operations but on enabling it through technological overmatch. The goal is to leverage advanced technologies—next-generation unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, and sophisticated EW—to suppress enemy ISR and strike capabilities, thereby creating temporary windows of opportunity for maneuver and decisive action.58 For future special forces doctrine, this means a heavy emphasis on counter-drone and counter-ISR TTPs, as well as mastering the deployment of their own autonomous systems to seize and maintain a temporary information advantage on the battlefield. The overarching framework of the “Gerasimov Doctrine,” with its seamless integration of military and non-military tools, will almost certainly remain the guiding strategic principle.44

The physical embodiment of this future vision is the next generation of combat equipment being developed to succeed the Ratnik system. The “Sotnik” (Centurion) combat system, projected for service around 2025, is designed to create an operator who is not just a soldier, but a networked sensor-shooter platform, fully integrated with robotic systems.48 Key projected features of Sotnik, and its even more distant successor “Legioner,” include:

  • Integrated Exoskeleton: A lightweight, likely passive, exoskeleton to enhance the operator’s physical capabilities, reduce fatigue, and allow for carrying heavier loads, including more batteries and electronic systems.67
  • Advanced Protection and Concealment: Lighter and stronger composite body armor, reportedly designed to defeat.50 caliber rounds, and mine-proof footwear. The uniform will likely incorporate materials that reduce the soldier’s thermal and radar signatures, providing a degree of “invisibility” to enemy sensors.48
  • Human-Machine Teaming: The system will be fully integrated with micro-drones and other robotic platforms, with critical data and video feeds projected directly onto the operator’s helmet visor or augmented reality goggles.67
  • AI Integration: Future iterations will likely incorporate artificial intelligence to assist with target recognition, threat prioritization, and navigation.63

The race to develop and field this technology underscores the Russian military’s core conclusion from the war in Ukraine: physical toughness and traditional martial skill, while still necessary, are no longer sufficient for victory. The future battlefield will be dominated by the side that achieves technological superiority in the domains of ISR, counter-ISR, robotics, and artificial intelligence. The feasibility of mass-producing and fielding such a complex and expensive system as Sotnik remains a significant question, especially under sanctions. However, the doctrinal vector is clear. The future of Russian special operations lies in the complete fusion of the human operator with autonomous and artificially intelligent systems, transforming the Spetsnaz soldier from a warrior into the master of a robotic pack.

Conclusion

The history of Russian special designation forces is a story of continuous, often brutal, evolution, driven by the shifting demands of the state and the harsh realities of the battlefield. From their dual origins as the political enforcers of the Cheka and the military scouts of the Red Army, they have morphed and adapted through successive eras of conflict. During the Cold War, they were forged into a strategic weapon, a scalpel aimed at the nuclear heart of NATO. In the mountains of Afghanistan, they were reforged into a hardened counter-insurgency force, mastering the art of the helicopter assault. In the rubble of Grozny, they became premier urban warriors, learning the bitter lessons of close-quarters combat.

In the 21st century, under a new political leadership, they were reformed again, emerging as the deniable “little green men” of Crimea and the multi-role operators of Syria—the primary instruments of a new “hybrid” way of war. This period saw the creation of the KSSO, a true strategic asset, and the technological empowerment of the individual soldier through the Ratnik system, closing a long-standing gap with their Western counterparts.

Today, these forces face their greatest challenge yet on the transparent, drone-saturated battlefields of Ukraine. The catastrophic losses and the erosion of their traditional methods have forced another painful but necessary evolution. The future of Russian special forces is now inextricably linked to the unmanned and cyber frontiers. The Spetsnaz operator of tomorrow will be less of a clandestine saboteur and more of a forward systems integrator, a human-in-the-loop commanding swarms of autonomous drones and robotic ground systems. Their success or failure will hinge not just on their legendary toughness, but on their ability to master the technologies that will define the next generation of conflict, and on their political masters’ ability to learn the enduring lesson that even the most elite forces cannot overcome a flawed strategy. The journey from sword and shield to scalpel and algorithm is far from over; it has simply entered a new, more complex, and more lethal chapter.



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Small Arms of the People’s Republic of China: A Technical and Strategic Assessment

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of the People’s Republic of China is currently executing the most comprehensive and technologically ambitious small arms modernization program in its history. This transformation is centered on the system-wide adoption of the QBZ-191 modular weapon family, a development that signifies a profound strategic and doctrinal evolution. The prevailing trend is a decisive pivot away from the isolated, proprietary, and ergonomically challenged designs of the past, most notably the bullpup QBZ-95 family. In its place, the PLA is embracing a design philosophy rooted in modularity, superior ergonomics, and the seamless integration of advanced electro-optics and accessories, aligning Chinese infantry weapons with global design paradigms for the first time.

This report provides a detailed technical and strategic assessment of the small arms currently in service across all branches of China’s armed forces, including the PLA Ground Force (PLAGF), Navy (PLAN), Air Force (PLAAF), the paramilitary People’s Armed Police (PAP), and the China Coast Guard (CCG). The analysis indicates that the current modernization is far more than a simple equipment upgrade. It is a direct reflection of a deeper doctrinal shift towards information-centric, combined-arms warfare, where the individual soldier is a networked sensor and shooter. The new generation of weapons is engineered to enhance the lethality, tactical flexibility, and operational sustainability of small units, empowering them to fight and win on a complex, multi-domain battlefield.

While the new QBZ-191 system is being prioritized for frontline combat units, a vast inventory of legacy weapons, including millions of QBZ-95 family rifles and a significant reserve of Type 81 rifles, remains in service. This demonstrates a pragmatic, tiered, and cost-conscious approach to modernization. Equipment is cascaded from elite units to second-line troops, reserves, and internal security forces, maximizing the combat effectiveness of the entire force structure within realistic fiscal and logistical constraints. This report will dissect each major weapon system, analyze its role within the PLA’s evolving doctrine, and provide a concluding assessment of China’s defense-industrial capacity and the future trajectory of its small arms development.

II. The New Generation: The QBZ-191 Modular Weapon System

The centerpiece of the PLA’s infantry modernization is the weapon family officially designated the QBZ-191. Its introduction marks a definitive break with the preceding generation of bullpup rifles and represents a wholesale adoption of contemporary, conventional rifle design principles. This shift is not merely stylistic; it is a fundamental realignment of the infantryman’s weapon with the demands of modern, informationized warfare.

This is a photo of a QBZ-191 taken at the 2021 China Airshow. Photo by: By Dan3031949 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=112466629

Core Design Philosophy and Doctrinal Shift

The QBZ-191 (191式自动步枪, 191 Shì Zìdòng Bùqiāng, Type 191 Automatic Rifle) family abandons the bullpup configuration of its QBZ-95 predecessor in favor of a conventional layout. Mechanically, it operates on a short-stroke gas piston and rotating bolt system, a mechanism renowned for its reliability and adopted by many of the world’s most advanced assault rifles, such as the Heckler & Koch HK416 and the FN SCAR. The weapon’s architecture includes features now considered standard for a modern military rifle: a multi-position adjustable stock, improved ergonomics for varied shooting positions, and fully ambidextrous controls, including the fire selector and magazine release.

The decision to abandon the bullpup layout, after investing heavily in it for over two decades with the QBZ-95, is the most telling aspect of the new design philosophy. The QBZ-95, while offering the benefit of a long barrel in a compact overall length, was plagued by inherent design flaws that became increasingly untenable. These included a notoriously heavy and imprecise trigger due to the long linkage from the trigger to the rear-mounted action, awkward magazine changes that required breaking a firing grip, and ejection ports located close to the user’s face, making off-hand shooting difficult. Most critically, however, the QBZ-95 was a product of a different doctrinal era.

The most significant physical feature of the QBZ-191, and the clearest indicator of the new doctrine, is its full-length, monolithic MIL-STD-1913 Picatinny rail along the top of the receiver and handguard. The QBZ-95 featured only a short, proprietary dovetail mount that was poorly suited for mounting anything other than a single, specific optic. The adoption of the universal Picatinny standard is a revolutionary step for the PLA. This rail provides ample space for the flexible mounting of a suite of accessories in various combinations—for example, a variable-power magnified optic paired with a clip-on thermal or night vision sight, a laser aiming module, and backup iron sights. This physical change is the direct consequence of a profound doctrinal evolution. The PLA no longer views advanced optics as specialist equipment for designated marksmen but as standard-issue equipment for the common infantryman. This signals a massive parallel investment in the domestic electro-optics industry and a fundamental shift in training methodology. The PLA is moving from an “iron sights first” mentality to an “optics first” doctrine, aiming to increase the effective engagement range, first-hit probability, and all-weather, day/night fighting capability of every soldier. This, in turn, enhances small-unit lethality, situational awareness, and autonomy on the battlefield.

Ammunition: The DBP-191 5.8x42mm Cartridge

The development of the QBZ-191 rifle is inextricably linked to the simultaneous development of a new generation of ammunition: the DBP-191 5.8x42mm cartridge. The weapon and the cartridge were designed as a single, integrated system, with each component optimized to enhance the performance of the other. This holistic approach is a hallmark of a mature and sophisticated research and development process.

The original 5.8x42mm cartridge, DBP-87, was developed in the 1980s and was a contemporary of the 5.56x45mm NATO and 5.45x39mm Soviet rounds. While adequate for its time, it and its successor, the DBP-10, lacked the performance of modern intermediate cartridges, particularly at extended ranges. The DBP-191 was specifically designed to overcome these deficiencies. It features a heavier, longer, and more streamlined projectile with a superior ballistic coefficient. This results in a flatter trajectory, reduced wind drift, and greater retained energy at medium and long ranges. The projectile construction includes a hardened steel core for improved penetration against body armor and light barriers.

In weapons design, the internal and external ballistics of the cartridge are the foundational elements that dictate critical design parameters of the rifle, including barrel length, rifling twist rate, gas system tuning, and the practical effective range of the platform. The PLA’s ordnance establishment clearly identified a performance deficit in its existing 5.8mm ammunition and understood that a new rifle alone could not solve the problem. By developing a new, higher-performance round and then engineering a family of weapons optimized to fire it, they have achieved a synergistic leap in capability. The superior performance of the DBP-191 cartridge is precisely what enables the Designated Marksman Rifle variant of the family, the QBU-191, to be effective out to ranges of 600-800 meters and what gives the standard QBZ-191 rifle a tangible performance advantage over its predecessor.

System Variants

The QBZ-191 was designed from the outset as a modular family of weapons, sharing a common receiver and operating mechanism, to fulfill multiple battlefield roles.

  • QBZ-191 (191式自动步枪, 191 Shì Zìdòng Bùqiāng, Type 191 Automatic Rifle): This is the standard infantry rifle and the core of the family. It features a 14.5-inch (368mm) barrel, providing a good balance between ballistic performance and maneuverability. It is slated to become the most widely issued variant, systematically replacing the QBZ-95-1 in frontline PLAGF combined arms brigades and PLAN Marine Corps units.
  • QBZ-192 (192式短自动步枪, 192 Shì Duǎn Zìdòng Bùqiāng, Type 192 Short Automatic Rifle): This is the compact carbine variant, equipped with a shorter 10.5-inch (267mm) barrel. The reduced length makes it ideal for personnel operating in confined spaces, such as vehicle crews, special forces conducting close-quarters battle (CQB), and naval personnel aboard ships. It serves the same role as the American Mk 18 or the Russian AK-105.
  • QBU-191 (191式精确射手步枪, 191 Shì Jīngquè Shèshǒu Bùqiāng, Type 191 Precision Marksman Rifle): This is the Designated Marksman Rifle (DMR) variant of the family. It is designed to provide accurate semi-automatic fire at the squad level beyond the effective range of standard assault rifles. It achieves this through a longer, heavier, free-floated barrel for enhanced accuracy and consistency, an improved trigger mechanism, and the standard issuance of a new 3-8.6x variable power magnified optic, the QMK-191. The QBU-191 is specifically designed to leverage the superior long-range ballistic performance of the new DBP-191 ammunition, enabling effective engagements out to 600-800 meters.
  • QJB-201 (201式班用机枪, 201 Shì Bānyòng Jīqiāng, Type 201 Squad Machine Gun): While not officially designated as part of the ‘191’ family, the QJB-201 is a new-generation 5.8x42mm light machine gun whose development was concurrent with and complementary to the QBZ-191 program. It is designed to replace the magazine-fed QJB-95-1 Squad Automatic Weapon. The most significant improvement is its switch to a belt-feed mechanism, allowing for a much higher volume of sustained suppressive fire. This addresses a major deficiency of its predecessor and provides PLA squads with a true light machine gun capability comparable to the FN Minimi/M249.

III. Prevalent Service Rifles and Carbines: The QBZ-95 Era

Despite the rollout of the QBZ-191, the incumbent QBZ-95 family of bullpup rifles remains the most numerous and widely distributed weapon system in the PLA’s inventory. Its vast numbers ensure that it will continue to see service for at least another decade, particularly with second-line units, reserves, and the People’s Armed Police, as the PLA undertakes its phased modernization.

QBZ-95/95-1 Family (95/95-1式枪族, 95/95-1 Shì Qiāngzú, Type 95/95-1 Gun Family)

Introduced in the late 1990s to coincide with the handover of Hong Kong, the QBZ-95 was a radical departure for the PLA. It was a gas-operated, bullpup rifle chambered for the then-new, domestically developed 5.8x42mm DBP-87 cartridge. This move represented a major technological leap, transitioning the PLA from its lineage of 7.62x39mm Kalashnikov-derived platforms (the Type 56 and Type 81) to a proprietary design utilizing a modern small-caliber, high-velocity round. The bullpup configuration, placing the action and magazine behind the trigger, allowed for a full-length 18.2-inch barrel in an overall package shorter than many carbines, a significant advantage for mechanized infantry.

Around 2010, an upgraded version, the QBZ-95-1, was introduced. This model addressed some of the original’s ergonomic flaws, most notably by relocating the safety selector from the rear of the stock to a more accessible position above the pistol grip. It also featured a heavier barrel and was chambered for the improved DBP-10 ammunition, which used a heavier projectile for better long-range performance.

The rapid and expensive decision by the PLA to abandon the entire bullpup concept after only one major upgrade suggests that the perceived flaws of the QBZ-95 were not minor but fundamental to its design. The platform’s legacy is therefore complex. It should not be viewed simply as a failed rifle, but rather as a crucial and necessary transitional system. The QBZ-95 project achieved its primary strategic objective: it forced the Chinese defense industry to master modern rifle manufacturing techniques, including the use of engineering polymers, and successfully introduced a proprietary small-caliber cartridge, breaking the PLA’s long-standing dependence on Soviet calibers and designs. In this, it was an unqualified success. Its secondary goal, to be a world-class fighting rifle, was only partially met. The institutional flexibility demonstrated by the PLA and Norinco in critically evaluating their own flagship product and making the bold decision to replace it entirely is a sign of a mature and pragmatic military-industrial complex, one that prioritizes combat capability over institutional prestige.

  • Variants in Service:
  • QBZ-95/95-1: The standard rifle variant. For two decades, it has been the primary individual weapon of the PLAGF, PAP, and other branches.
  • QBZ-95B/95B-1: A compact carbine version with a significantly shorter barrel. It has been used by special forces, vehicle crews, and naval boarding parties, but its utility was hampered by a severe muzzle blast, flash, and a significant reduction in projectile velocity and effective range.
  • QJB-95/95-1: The Squad Automatic Weapon (SAW) variant. It is essentially a heavy-barreled version of the rifle, designed to be fed from a 75-round drum magazine. While providing more sustained fire capability than a standard rifle, it is not a true light machine gun. It is prone to overheating during prolonged firing and lacks the advantages of a quick-change barrel or a belt-feed system.

Legacy Systems in Reserve/Second-Line Service

The Type 81 (81式自动步枪, 81 Shì Zìdòng Bùqiāng) rifle, a 7.62x39mm weapon system, continues to serve with reserve formations, militia units, and some border defense forces. The Type 81, while visually resembling the Kalashnikov, is a distinct design featuring a short-stroke gas piston system (unlike the AK’s long-stroke piston), which contributed to its improved accuracy over the Type 56 (a direct Chinese copy of the AK-47). It is a robust, reliable, and simple weapon that remains effective for its intended role.

Tyoe 81 Rifle. By Tyg728 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=114962053

The continued presence of the Type 81 and the gradual displacement of the QBZ-95 is not an indication of logistical failure or economic hardship, but rather the product of a deliberate and cost-effective strategy of tiered modernization. Equipping the entirety of China’s massive armed forces—including millions of active duty personnel, PAP, and reservists—with the latest QBZ-191 system simultaneously is financially prohibitive and logistically unfeasible. Instead, the PLA employs a cascading procurement model. New QBZ-191 systems are fielded to high-readiness, frontline combat brigades. Their displaced QBZ-95-1 rifles are then refurbished and re-issued to second-line units, garrison troops, or the PAP. This pushes older but still serviceable weapons like the Type 81 further down the chain to reserve and militia units. This methodical approach maximizes the overall combat power of the force structure by ensuring that even lower-tier units receive upgraded equipment, all while managing the immense cost of a full-scale re-equipment program.

IV. Precision Fire Systems: From Marksman to Anti-Materiel

The PLA has made significant strides in developing and fielding a range of precision fire systems, recognizing the critical importance of engaging targets accurately at ranges beyond that of a standard service rifle. This capability area has evolved from rudimentary sniper rifles to a sophisticated ecosystem of designated marksman, bolt-action sniper, and heavy anti-materiel systems.

Designated Marksman Rifles (DMRs)

  • QBU-191: As detailed previously, the QBU-191 is the PLA’s newest DMR and represents the future of squad-level precision fire. It is being fielded as an integral part of the new modular weapon family.
  • QBU-88 (Type 88) (88式狙击步枪, 88 Shì Jūjí Bùqiāng, Type 88 Sniper Rifle): The QBU-88 was the PLA’s first purpose-built DMR, introduced alongside the QBZ-95 family. It is a semi-automatic, bullpup rifle chambered for the 5.8x42mm “heavy round” (a predecessor to the DBP-10). While officially designated a “sniper rifle,” its performance characteristics and intended role place it squarely in the DMR category. For its time, the QBU-88 was a revolutionary concept for the PLA, introducing the principle of a squad-level precision rifle. However, it is based on the QBZ-95 action and suffers from many of the same limitations, including poor ergonomics, a heavy trigger, and inadequate provisions for mounting modern optics. Its accuracy is considered adequate for its role but is surpassed by more modern designs. The QBU-88 is being actively replaced by the superior QBU-191.

Bolt-Action Sniper Rifles

  • CS/LR4 (and variants): The CS/LR4 represents a significant departure in PLA small arms procurement philosophy. It is a modern, high-precision bolt-action sniper rifle system chambered in 7.62x51mm NATO. This system, used by PLAGF special operations forces and elite PAP counter-terrorism units like the Snow Leopard Commando Unit, is a direct equivalent to Western precision rifles like the Remington M24 or Accuracy International Arctic Warfare.
One of the Norinco NSG-1 / CS-LR4 Sniper Rifles that China donated to the Philippine armed forces last June 2017. Photo taken during the Philippine Army’s 121st Anniversary Exhibit at the Bonifacio High Street Activity Center. By Rhk111 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=67238847

The adoption of a foreign, NATO-standard caliber for a premier sniper rifle is a highly revealing decision. It breaks with the PLA’s long-standing doctrine of logistical self-sufficiency and reliance on domestic calibers. This choice was not made lightly. It indicates that the performance requirements for high-precision, long-range sniping—specifically, consistent sub-Minute of Angle (MOA) accuracy—were so stringent that existing domestic cartridges, such as the 5.8mm or the legacy 7.62x54mmR, were deemed insufficient. The PLA’s ordnance experts and procurement officers made a pragmatic choice, recognizing that the global commercial and military ecosystem for high-quality, match-grade 7.62x51mm ammunition was far more mature and offered superior performance compared to any domestic equivalent. This prioritization of raw capability over logistical purity for a specialized, high-value role suggests a sophisticated, two-tiered approach to ammunition philosophy. For general-issue weapons, domestic calibers are paramount for strategic independence during a major conflict. For elite, special-purpose units where mission success hinges on the highest possible performance, they will adopt the best available global standard.

Anti-Materiel Rifles

  • QBU-10 (10式大口径狙击步枪, 10 Shì Dàkǒujìng Jūjí Bùqiāng, Type 10 Large-Caliber Sniper Rifle): The QBU-10 is a semi-automatic anti-materiel rifle chambered in the powerful 12.7x108mm cartridge, the Eastern Bloc equivalent of the.50 BMG. This is a heavy, team-served weapon, typically deployed on a tripod or mounted on a vehicle. Its purpose is to engage and destroy high-value materiel targets at very long ranges (up to 1,500 meters), such as light armored vehicles, radar and communications equipment, parked aircraft, and enemy personnel behind substantial cover. A key feature of the QBU-10 system is its sophisticated, integrated day/night optic, which reportedly incorporates a laser rangefinder and a ballistic computer to aid the gunner in achieving first-round hits at extreme distances. This weapon provides PLA infantry units with an organic capability to defeat targets that would otherwise require dedicated anti-tank guided missiles or heavier fire support, making it a key asset for long-range interdiction and battlefield dominance.
A Chinese marine holding a QBU-10 in a Ghillie Suit. By Mil.ru, CC BY 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=109882081

V. Sidearms and Close-Quarters Systems

This category includes weapons designed for personal defense, urban combat, and special operations, where compactness, rate of fire, and specialized capabilities like sound suppression are paramount. Recent developments in this area show a clear trend towards standardization on globally accepted calibers.

Pistols (手枪, Shǒuqiāng)

  • QSZ-92 (92式手枪, 92 Shì Shǒuqiāng, Type 92 Pistol): The QSZ-92 has been the standard service pistol for the PLA and PAP for over two decades. It is a polymer-framed, short-recoil-operated pistol. Uniquely, it was produced in two distinct caliber variants. The primary military version fires the proprietary 5.8x21mm DAP-92 armor-piercing cartridge, issued to officers and combat troops. A second version, chambered in the ubiquitous 9x19mm Parabellum, was produced primarily for PAP units and for export. The 5.8mm version was designed with the specific doctrinal goal of defeating enemy body armor, a concept shared by the Western FN 5.7x28mm. However, like its Western counterparts, the small-caliber pistol round concept has been widely criticized for having questionable terminal ballistics and stopping power against unarmored targets compared to larger, heavier conventional pistol rounds.
QSZ92 Pistol. By Tyg728 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=62580963
  • QSZ-193 (193式手枪, 193 Shì Shǒuqiāng, Type 193 Pistol): The QSZ-193 is a new, compact, striker-fired pistol that has been observed in service with PLAAF pilots and special forces units. Crucially, it is chambered in 9x19mm Parabellum. The emergence of this new 9mm pistol as the apparent next-generation sidearm for specialized roles effectively signals the end of the PLA’s two-decade experiment with the 5.8x21mm pistol cartridge. The decision to standardize on the globally dominant 9x19mm caliber for its new sidearm indicates that the PLA has reached the same conclusion as many Western militaries: modern 9mm ammunition, particularly with advanced hollow-point or controlled-expansion projectiles, offers a superior overall balance of terminal performance, magazine capacity, and controllability, while the perceived advantage of armor penetration from small-caliber pistol rounds is marginal in most real-world scenarios.

Submachine Guns (冲锋枪, Chōngfēngqiāng)

  • QCQ-171 (171式冲锋枪, 171 Shì Chōngfēngqiāng, Type 171 Submachine Gun): A modern, lightweight submachine gun (SMG) chambered in 9x19mm, the QCQ-171 is being issued to special operations forces and other units with a specific requirement for a compact, high-rate-of-fire weapon for close-quarters combat. It features a telescopic stock, accessory rails for optics and lights, and appears to be a direct competitor to Western designs like the Heckler & Koch MP5 or B&T APC9.
  • QCW-05 (05式轻型冲锋枪, 05 Shì Qīngxíng Chōngfēngqiāng, Type 05 Light Submachine Gun): The QCW-05 is a unique bullpup SMG chambered in the proprietary 5.8x21mm pistol cartridge. Its most notable feature is its large, integral sound suppressor, which makes the weapon very quiet. It is fed from a 50-round, four-column “quad-stack” magazine located in the pistol grip. While effective in its niche role for stealth operations, it suffers from the same ballistic limitations as the QSZ-92 pistol in the same caliber. Its use is primarily confined to PLA special forces and PAP counter-terrorism units. The fielding of the 9mm QCQ-171 in many frontline SOF roles further reinforces the PLA’s strategic move away from the 5.8x21mm cartridge ecosystem.
QCW-5 Bullpup Submachine Gun. By Tyg728 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=62566026

VI. Crew-Served and Support Weapons

These weapons provide sustained fire support at the platoon and company level, giving infantry units the ability to suppress and destroy enemy positions and light vehicles. This category includes machine guns and automatic grenade launchers.

Machine Guns (机枪, Jīqiāng)

  • QJY-88 (88式通用机枪, 88 Shì Tōngyòng Jīqiāng, Type 88 General Purpose Machine Gun): The QJY-88 was developed as the PLA’s first true General Purpose Machine Gun (GPMG), intended to be fired from a bipod in the light machine gun role or from a tripod in the sustained-fire medium machine gun role. It was designed to replace the aging 7.62x54mmR Type 67 machine gun. However, in a highly unusual design choice, the QJY-88 was chambered in the 5.8x42mm “heavy round”. This decision represents a rare doctrinal mismatch in PLA weapon development. The GPMG concept, epitomized by the German MG3, the American M240, and the Russian PKM, is predicated on the use of a full-power rifle cartridge (e.g., 7.62x51mm or 7.62x54mmR). These powerful rounds are essential for providing effective, long-range suppressive fire and for penetrating cover, light vehicles, and field fortifications. By chambering their GPMG in an intermediate cartridge, even a heavy-for-caliber one, the PLA created a weapon that lacked a significant performance advantage in range and barrier penetration over a modern squad automatic weapon, yet was heavier and more cumbersome. The weapon has been widely criticized as being underpowered for its intended role, and the notable lack of a clear successor suggests that the PLA is re-evaluating its entire machine gun doctrine.
  • QJZ-89 (89式重机枪, 89 Shì Zhòng Jīqiāng, Type 89 Heavy Machine Gun): The QJZ-89 is the PLA’s standard heavy machine gun (HMG), chambered in 12.7x108mm. Its most remarkable feature is its exceptionally low weight. At approximately 26 kg (57 lbs) for the gun and tripod combined, it is the lightest HMG in service anywhere in the world, weighing significantly less than the American M2 Browning or the Russian Kord. This light weight is achieved through the use of advanced alloys and a hybrid direct-impingement/short-stroke piston operating system. This makes it more man-portable than its peers, allowing infantry units to reposition it on the battlefield more rapidly. It is used in both tripod-mounted infantry support roles and as a primary or secondary armament on a wide variety of PLA vehicles.

Automatic Grenade Launchers (榴弹发射器, Liúdàn Fāshèqì)

  • QLZ-87/11 (87/11式榴弹发射器, 87/11 Shì Liúdàn Fāshèqì, Type 87/11 Grenade Launcher): The QLZ-87 is a 35mm automatic grenade launcher (AGL) that provides devastating anti-personnel and light anti-materiel fire support for infantry units. It is a selectively-fired weapon that can be fired from an integral bipod in a direct-fire role or from a tripod for indirect fire. It is fed from 6- or 15-round drum magazines. The newer QLZ-11 is a lightened and improved version of the design. The 35mm grenades provide a significant area-effect capability, allowing a small infantry unit to suppress and neutralize enemy troops in trenches, behind cover, or in the open at ranges out to 1,700 meters.

VII. Armament by Service Branch: A Comparative Analysis

While there is increasing standardization around the new QBZ-191 family, the specific small arms loadouts vary between the different branches of China’s armed forces, reflecting their unique operational requirements and mission sets.

PLA Ground Force (PLAGF) (中国人民解放军陆军, Zhōngguó Rénmín Jiěfàngjūn Lùjūn)

  • Standard Infantry: The PLAGF’s frontline combined arms brigades are at the forefront of the modernization effort. Standard infantry squads are actively transitioning from the QBZ-95-1 to the new QBZ-191 as their primary service rifle. A typical squad will be augmented with the QBU-191 for designated marksman duties and the new belt-fed QJB-201 as the squad’s light machine gun. Officers and vehicle crews are typically issued the QSZ-92 pistol for personal defense. Second-line and garrison units will continue to operate the QBZ-95-1 for the foreseeable future.
  • Special Operations Forces (SOF): PLAGF special forces are among the first to receive the full suite of new-generation weapons. They are likely to be fully equipped with the compact QBZ-192 carbine for its maneuverability in direct action missions. Their specialized inventory also includes the high-precision CS/LR4 bolt-action sniper rifle for long-range engagements and the new 9mm QCQ-171 SMG for suppressed, close-quarters operations.

PLA Navy (PLAN) (中国人民解放军海军, Zhōngguó Rénmín Jiěfàngjūn Hǎijūn)

  • Marines (海军陆战队, Hǎijūn Lùzhànduì): As an elite expeditionary force analogous to the USMC, the PLAN Marine Corps is receiving the QBZ-191 family concurrently with the PLAGF’s frontline units. Given their focus on amphibious assault, littoral operations, and potential urban warfare scenarios, the compact QBZ-192 carbine is expected to be a common issue weapon alongside the standard QBZ-191 rifle.
  • Shipboard Personnel: For general security, anti-piracy, and visit, board, search, and seizure (VBSS) operations, compactness is the key driver of weapon selection. Personnel were historically armed with the QBZ-95B carbine, but are now likely transitioning to the superior QBZ-192 carbine. The QSZ-92 pistol remains the standard sidearm.

PLA Air Force (PLAAF) (中国人民解放军空军, Zhōngguó Rénmín Jiěfàngjūn Kōngjūn)

  • Base Security/Ground Personnel: PLAAF ground personnel, such as those in airfield security units, are typically equipped with standard infantry rifles. They currently operate the QBZ-95-1 and will likely be among the later recipients of the QBZ-191 as production ramps up.
  • Pilots: Aircrew are issued compact weapons for survival and self-defense in the event of an ejection over hostile territory. This role was historically filled by machine pistols like the Type 80, but is now transitioning to the new, more reliable, and compact QSZ-193 pistol in 9x19mm.

People’s Armed Police (PAP) (中国人民武装警察部队, Zhōngguó Rénmín Wǔzhuāng Jǐngchá Bùduì)

The PAP is a massive paramilitary force responsible for internal security, counter-terrorism, and border control. Its armament reflects this dual law enforcement and military role.

  • Internal Security Units: The vast majority of PAP units, tasked with roles like riot control and guarding critical infrastructure, widely use the QBZ-95-1 rifle and the QSZ-92 pistol (often the 9mm version).
  • Counter-Terrorism Units: Elite PAP units, such as the Beijing-based Snow Leopard Commando Unit and various regional special police units, maintain a diverse and highly specialized inventory. Their requirements overlap significantly with military SOF but with a greater emphasis on surgical urban operations. They utilize the CS/LR4 sniper rifle for precision hostage rescue shots, both the integrally suppressed 5.8mm QCW-05 and the new 9mm QCQ-171 SMGs for close-quarters battle, and specialized tactical shotguns like the QBS-09 (09式军用霰弹枪, 09 Shì Jūnyòng Xiàndànqiāng, Type 09 Military Shotgun).

China Coast Guard (CCG) (中国海警局, Zhōngguó Hǎijǐng Jú)

As a paramilitary maritime law enforcement agency, the CCG’s armament is more standardized and focused on its mission set. Boarding teams are typically equipped with compact weapons suitable for use on ships, primarily the QBZ-95B carbine and the QSZ-92 pistol. Their cutters and larger vessels are armed with deck-mounted heavy machine guns and autocannons.

VIII. Concluding Analysis: Industrial Capacity and Future Trajectory

The ongoing modernization of the PLA’s small arms inventory reveals several key strategic trends and provides a clear indication of the capabilities of China’s domestic defense industry. The trajectory points towards a force that is rapidly closing the technological and doctrinal gap with leading Western militaries at the level of the individual soldier.

The analysis synthesizes four dominant trends. First is the primacy of modularity and optics integration, exemplified by the QBZ-191’s conventional layout and full-length Picatinny rail. Second is the shift towards a holistic, systems-based design approach, where the rifle, cartridge (DBP-191), and optic (QMK-191) are developed concurrently as an optimized package. Third is the pragmatic adoption of international standards, such as the MIL-STD-1913 rail and the 9x19mm pistol caliber, when they offer a clear performance advantage over proprietary solutions. Fourth is the implementation of a deliberate, cost-effective, tiered modernization strategy that maximizes the combat power of the entire force structure during a prolonged transition period.

The development and mass production of the QBZ-191 family is a testament to the maturity of China’s state-owned defense industry, primarily represented by the corporate giant Norinco. It demonstrates a sophisticated capability for rapid, clean-sheet design, the use of modern materials and manufacturing methods (such as advanced polymers for furniture and aluminum forgings and extrusions for receivers), and the large-scale production and integration of complex electro-optics. The ability to identify the doctrinal shortcomings of a previous flagship system (QBZ-95) and execute a complete and rapid course correction speaks to an agile and capability-focused industrial base.

Looking forward, the full replacement of the QBZ-95 family in all frontline PLAGF and PLAN Marine Corps units is likely to be completed within the next 5-10 years. Future development will likely focus on addressing remaining gaps in the PLA’s small arms portfolio. A high-priority area will likely be the development of a new GPMG, probably chambered in a full-power cartridge, to rectify the doctrinal and performance shortcomings of the 5.8mm QJY-88. Furthermore, the PLA will almost certainly continue the trend of integrating “smart” technologies into the infantry weapon system, including networked sights that can share data, integrated command and control links, and other technologies that further embed the individual soldier into a digital battlefield network. The overall trajectory is clear: China is committed to equipping its infantry with small arms systems that are not merely sufficient, but are technologically on par with, and in some cases potentially superior to, those of any potential adversary.

IX. Appendix: Comprehensive Small Arms Summary Table

The following table provides a consolidated, at-a-glance reference for the primary small arms systems currently in service with the armed forces of the People’s Republic of China.

CategoryChinese Designation (Hanzi)Pinyin RomanizationU.S. English Name/TranslationManufacturerCaliberOperating PrincipleWeight (Unloaded)Overall LengthPrimary Users
Service Rifle191式自动步枪191 Shì Zìdòng BùqiāngType 191 Automatic RifleNorinco State Arsenals5.8x42mm DBP-191Short-stroke gas piston, rotating bolt~3.25 kg~950 mm (stock extended)PLAGF, PLAN Marines
Carbine192式短自动步枪192 Shì Duǎn Zìdòng BùqiāngType 192 Short Automatic RifleNorinco State Arsenals5.8x42mm DBP-191Short-stroke gas piston, rotating bolt~3.0 kg~810 mm (stock extended)SOF, Vehicle Crews, PLAN
Service Rifle95-1式自动步枪95-1 Shì Zìdòng BùqiāngType 95-1 Automatic RifleNorinco State Arsenals5.8x42mm DBP-10Short-stroke gas piston, rotating bolt3.25 kg745 mmPLAGF, PAP, PLAN, PLAAF
Legacy Rifle81式自动步枪81 Shì Zìdòng BùqiāngType 81 Automatic RifleNorinco State Arsenals7.62x39mmShort-stroke gas piston, rotating bolt3.4 kg955 mm (fixed stock)PLA Reserve, Militia
Pistol92式手枪92 Shì ShǒuqiāngType 92 PistolNorinco State Arsenals5.8x21mm / 9x19mmShort recoil, rotating barrel0.76 kg190 mmPLA, PAP
Pistol193式手枪193 Shì ShǒuqiāngType 193 PistolNorinco State Arsenals9x19mmShort recoil, striker-firedN/A (Compact)N/A (Compact)PLAAF Pilots, SOF
SMG171式冲锋枪171 Shì ChōngfēngqiāngType 171 Submachine GunNorinco State Arsenals9x19mmBlowback~2.8 kg~690 mm (stock extended)SOF, PAP
SMG05式轻型冲锋枪05 Shì Qīngxíng ChōngfēngqiāngType 05 Light Submachine GunNorinco State Arsenals5.8x21mmBlowback, integrally suppressed2.2 kg500 mmSOF, PAP
DMR191式精确射手步枪191 Shì Jīngquè Shèshǒu BùqiāngType 191 Precision Marksman RifleNorinco State Arsenals5.8x42mm DBP-191Short-stroke gas piston, rotating bolt~4.5 kg (est.)~1100 mm (est.)PLAGF, PLAN Marines
DMR88式狙击步枪88 Shì Jūjí BùqiāngType 88 Sniper RifleNorinco State Arsenals5.8x42mm (Heavy)Short-stroke gas piston, rotating bolt4.1 kg920 mmPLAGF, PAP
Sniper RifleCS/LR4CS/LR4CS/LR4 High-Precision Sniper RifleNorinco State Arsenals7.62x51mm NATOBolt-action6.5 kg1100 mmPLAGF SOF, PAP CTU
Anti-Materiel10式大口径狙击步枪10 Shì Dàkǒujìng Jūjí BùqiāngType 10 Large-Caliber Sniper RifleNorinco State Arsenals12.7x108mmGas-operated, semi-automatic13.3 kg1380 mmPLAGF
LMG201式班用机枪201 Shì Bānyòng JīqiāngType 201 Squad Machine GunNorinco State Arsenals5.8x42mm DBP-191Gas-operated, belt-fed< 5 kg (est.)N/APLAGF
SAW95-1式班用机枪95-1 Shì Bānyòng JīqiāngType 95-1 Squad Machine GunNorinco State Arsenals5.8x42mm DBP-10Short-stroke gas piston, rotating bolt3.95 kg840 mmPLAGF, PAP
GPMG88式通用机枪88 Shì Tōngyòng JīqiāngType 88 General Purpose Machine GunNorinco State Arsenals5.8x42mm (Heavy)Gas-operated, belt-fed11.8 kg (gun & bipod)1150 mmPLAGF
HMG89式重机枪89 Shì Zhòng JīqiāngType 89 Heavy Machine GunNorinco State Arsenals12.7x108mmGas-operated, belt-fed17.5 kg (gun only)1192 mmPLAGF
AGL87/11式榴弹发射器87/11 Shì Liúdàn FāshèqìType 87/11 Grenade LauncherNorinco State Arsenals35x32mmSRBlowback, semi/full auto12 kg (gun & bipod)970 mmPLAGF


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Convergence and Collision: A Comparative Analysis of U.S. and Chinese Military Philosophies in the 21st Century

The strategic competition between the United States and the People’s Republic of China is the defining geopolitical dynamic of the 21st century, and at its core lies a fundamental divergence in military philosophy, doctrine, and strategic posture. This report provides a comparative analysis of these competing military worldviews. The United States continues to operate under a philosophy of global power projection, enabled by a network of alliances and underpinned by a new doctrine of Joint All-Domain Operations (JADO) designed to achieve decision dominance through superior integration. In contrast, China’s military thought is rooted in a concept of “Active Defense,” a strategically defensive but operationally offensive posture designed to secure its regional periphery and deter outside intervention. This philosophy is operationalized through a doctrine of “Intelligentized Warfare” and “System Destruction,” which aims to paralyze a technologically superior adversary by attacking the network-centric systems that provide its strength.

These philosophies are not evolving in a vacuum; they are a direct response to one another, creating a dynamic of doctrinal competition. Where the U.S. seeks to build a resilient, integrated “kill web,” China seeks to develop the “assassin’s mace” capabilities to break it. Where the U.S. leverages a global network of allies, China pursues strategic self-reliance. This analysis reveals that while both powers converge on the belief that future warfare will be a contest of information and decision speed, their methods for achieving victory are starkly different, creating a complex and potentially volatile military balance.


Table 1: Comparative Matrix of U.S. and Chinese Military Philosophies

Capability/MindsetUnited StatesChinaAreas of SimilarityAreas of DifferenceKey Lessons
Overarching PhilosophyGlobal Power Projection: An expeditionary mindset focused on defending global interests far from home, maintaining access to the global commons, and supporting allies.1Active Defense: A strategically defensive posture focused on securing the national periphery, allowing for tactically and operationally offensive actions to deter or defeat intervention.3Both philosophies are designed to secure national interests and deter aggression, adapting to perceived threats.Geographic Scope: Global and expeditionary vs. Regional and counter-interventionist. Strategic Posture: Proactive and forward-deployed vs. Reactive and bastion-focused.U.S. power is inherently expeditionary, creating logistical vulnerabilities. China’s philosophy leverages geography as a strategic asset.
Core DoctrineJoint All-Domain Operations (JADO): Integration of effects across all domains (air, land, sea, space, cyber, EMS) to overwhelm an adversary’s decision-making cycle.5Intelligentized Warfare / System Destruction: Use of AI-enabled systems to attack an adversary’s C4ISR network, causing systemic collapse rather than attriting forces.7Both doctrines prioritize information superiority and decision speed, viewing the network as the central battlefield. Both are moving toward AI-enabled C2.Targeting Logic: U.S. targets adversary decision-making (paralysis). China targets the adversary’s system itself (collapse). Method: U.S. seeks integration (“kill web”). China seeks disintegration (“system destruction”).The central conflict is a doctrinal race: the U.S. builds an integrated network while China builds the tools to break it.
Geographic FocusGlobal: Postured to operate in multiple theaters simultaneously, with a significant focus on the Indo-Pacific and Europe.2Regional Periphery: Focused on the First and Second Island Chains, particularly scenarios involving Taiwan and the South China Sea.11Both view the Indo-Pacific as the primary theater of strategic competition.U.S. faces the “tyranny of distance” and must project power across vast oceans. China enjoys the “tyranny of proximity,” a home-field advantage.Geography remains a dominant factor. China’s A2/AD strategy is a direct exploitation of its geographic advantage.
Role of AlliancesCentral Pillar: A global network of formal treaty allies is integral to strategy, providing basing, legitimacy, and combat power.13Strategic Self-Reliance: Advocates “partnerships, not alliances,” avoiding binding mutual defense commitments to maintain strategic autonomy.16Both engage in military diplomacy and joint exercises with other nations.Nature of Commitment: U.S. has formal, binding defense treaties. China has pragmatic, non-binding partnerships.Alliances are a key U.S. asymmetry, providing mass but adding complexity. China’s approach provides speed but risks isolation.
Technological DriverNetwork-Centric “Kill Webs”: Focus on connecting any sensor to any shooter across all domains via JADC2 to create a resilient, integrated force.18Asymmetric “Assassin’s Mace”: Focus on developing niche, high-impact capabilities (e.g., ASBMs, hypersonics) to exploit specific U.S. vulnerabilities.20Both are heavily investing in AI, autonomy, cyber, and space capabilities as force multipliers.U.S. seeks to enhance its existing system through networking. China seeks to bypass and defeat the U.S. system with asymmetric weapons.Technology is not just about quality but about the strategic logic of its application.
Industrial ModelDistinct Defense Industrial Base: A largely separate ecosystem of specialized defense contractors, though with increasing ties to commercial tech.22Military-Civil Fusion (MCF): A national strategy to eliminate barriers between civilian and military R&D and industry, leveraging the entire national economy for military modernization.24Both recognize the need to leverage national technological and industrial power for military advantage.Integration Level: U.S. model is one of partnership between distinct sectors. China’s model is one of state-directed fusion.MCF presents a whole-of-nation challenge that blurs the lines between economic and military competition.
Theory of VictoryParalysis through Overwhelm: Present the adversary with so many simultaneous, multi-domain dilemmas that their ability to command and control their forces is paralyzed.5Disintegration through Disruption: Degrade and destroy the adversary’s C4ISR systems, severing the links between sensors and shooters, causing their warfighting system to collapse.7Both aim to win decisively and quickly by targeting the adversary’s cognitive and command functions, not just their physical forces.U.S. theory is based on the resilience of its own network. China’s theory is based on the fragility of the adversary’s network.Victory is increasingly defined by disruption, not attrition.
Civil-Military RelationsStrict Civilian Control: The military is subordinate to elected civilian leadership (President, Congress) as mandated by the Constitution.27Party-Army Fusion: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is the armed wing of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), not the state. Its ultimate loyalty is to the Party.3In both, the military is an instrument of national policy.Source of Authority: U.S. military serves the Constitution and the nation. The PLA serves the CCP.This fundamental difference shapes strategic objectives, risk tolerance, and the ultimate purpose for which military force is used.

The 10 Key Lessons Learned

  1. The central battlefield of the 21st century is the network. Both the United States and China have concluded that victory in modern warfare hinges on achieving “decision dominance” by processing information and executing commands faster and more effectively than the adversary.
  2. U.S. military power is fundamentally expeditionary and alliance-dependent. Its ability to project force globally is its greatest strength, but the long logistical chains and complex political coordination required are also its most critical vulnerabilities.
  3. China’s military philosophy is fundamentally regional and counter-interventionist. It is designed to leverage geography and asymmetric technology to create a formidable bastion within the Indo-Pacific, making it prohibitively costly for the U.S. to intervene in matters China defines as its core interests.
  4. The U.S. and China are engaged in a direct doctrinal race. The U.S. is building integrated “kill webs” (JADO) to connect all its assets, while China is simultaneously developing “system destruction” capabilities specifically designed to find and break the links in those webs.
  5. The U.S. relies on a distinct, highly advanced defense industry, while China’s Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) strategy presents a whole-of-nation challenge. MCF blurs the lines between economic and military competition, turning the entire global technology ecosystem into a contested space.
  6. Alliances are a defining asymmetry. The U.S. fights as a coalition, gaining immense capability and legitimacy at the cost of operational complexity and slower decision-making. China fights alone, gaining speed and unity of command at the cost of strategic isolation.
  7. The character of conflict is shifting from attrition to disruption. Victory may be defined not by destroying the most enemy platforms, but by paralyzing an adversary’s ability to command them, causing a systemic collapse.
  8. Geography remains paramount. The United States faces the “tyranny of distance” in any potential Pacific conflict, while China enjoys the “tyranny of proximity”—a home-field advantage that its Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy is built to exploit.
  9. The PLA’s modernization is a reactive process. Much of its doctrinal and technological development has been shaped by decades of meticulously studying U.S. military operations to identify and build capabilities to exploit perceived American weaknesses.
  10. Both powers believe emerging technologies like AI are revolutionary. However, China’s state-directed, fused civil-military approach aims to “leapfrog” U.S. capabilities, while the United States seeks to integrate these technologies to enhance its existing joint force structure and operational concepts.

Part I: The American Way of War: Global Expeditionary Power and All-Domain Integration

The military philosophy of the United States is intrinsically linked to its status as a global power with interests that span the globe. Its military is not postured primarily for homeland defense but as an expeditionary force designed to project power, deter aggression, and defend national interests far from its own shores. This philosophy has evolved from the Cold War’s containment strategy to a modern doctrine of integrated, all-domain operations designed to maintain a competitive edge in an era of renewed great power competition.

The Philosophy of Global Power Projection

The foundational strategic mindset of the U.S. military is that of a global power with global interests.2 Its economic prosperity depends on global trade, its security is tied to a network of international allies, and its influence is challenged by competitors in key regions worldwide. Consequently, its military is tasked with protecting the nation’s interests on a correspondingly global scale, including safeguarding the freedom to use the global commons—the sea, air, space, and cyberspace domains.2 This mandate necessitates a force capable of power projection, which the U.S. Department of Defense defines as the “ability of a nation to apply all or some of its elements of national power—political, economic, informational, or military—to rapidly and effectively deploy and sustain forces in and from multiple dispersed locations to respond to crises”.1

This philosophy is operationalized through a combination of strategic capabilities. At its heart is a reliance on expeditionary forces that can be deployed from bases within the United States and sustained over vast distances.29 This requires immense strategic mobility, including airlift and sealift capabilities, to move troops and equipment to distant theaters.1 To reduce deployment times, this expeditionary posture is augmented by a network of forward bases and prepositioned stocks of equipment at strategic locations around the world.1 This forward presence serves not only a logistical purpose but also a political one, demonstrating U.S. commitment and acting as a deterrent to potential aggressors.30

Crucially, this global posture is built upon a vast and deeply integrated network of alliances. Unlike the temporary arrangements that have characterized much of history, the U.S. network of formal treaty allies is treated as a permanent and indispensable operational platform.15 Allies share the burden of power projection, provide critical basing and overflight rights, and contribute their own military forces to coalition operations.1 This approach was historically shaped by a force-sizing construct intended to handle two “nearly simultaneous major regional conflicts,” a standard that, while no longer official doctrine, continues to inform the scale and ambition of the U.S. force structure.2 Russian military analysis acknowledges this unique characteristic, noting that “the U.S. military has a worldwide presence and can project combat power throughout the globe,” in stark contrast to Russia’s own regionally focused military.10

This reliance on global power projection, however, creates a profound strategic paradox. The very capability that underpins America’s superpower status—its global reach—is simultaneously the source of its greatest logistical vulnerability. The need to deploy and, critically, sustain forces across thousands of miles of ocean and air creates long and potentially exposed supply lines.1 An adversary focused on regional defense can concentrate its efforts on disrupting this logistical chain, preventing the U.S. from bringing its full military might to bear. This dynamic has not been lost on U.S. competitors and forms the central challenge that its modern military doctrine seeks to overcome.

The Doctrine of Joint All-Domain Operations (JADO)

In response to the reemergence of great power competition and the erosion of its traditional military advantages, the United States has developed a new operational concept: Joint All-Domain Operations (JADO). This doctrine represents a fundamental rethinking of how to orchestrate military power in a highly contested, technologically advanced battlespace where adversaries can challenge U.S. forces across every warfighting domain.5 JADO is the U.S. military’s answer to the proliferation of advanced technologies and the development of sophisticated Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) threats by competitors like China.5

The core principle of JADO is the “convergence of effects,” which involves synchronizing kinetic (e.g., missiles) and non-kinetic (e.g., cyber attacks) capabilities across the domains of air, land, maritime, cyberspace, and space, as well as the electromagnetic spectrum.5 The goal is to present an adversary with multiple, simultaneous dilemmas at a tempo that complicates or negates their response, enabling U.S. forces to operate inside the adversary’s decision-making cycle.5 This approach is “objective-centric and domain-agnostic,” meaning it focuses on achieving a desired outcome using the most efficient and effective tools available, regardless of which military service owns the asset.6 For example, an air operation might be enabled by a preceding cyber operation that disables enemy air defense communications.6

Enabling this complex orchestration is the concept of Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2). JADC2 is the technological and procedural backbone of JADO, designed to create a unified network that connects sensors from all military branches to all “shooters” or effectors.18 The goal is to turn the vast amounts of data collected from disparate sources into actionable intelligence, allowing commanders to “sense, make sense, and act” with a speed and coherence that outpaces the enemy.5 This is a direct application of Colonel John Boyd’s “OODA loop” (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) theory to 21st-century warfare, where victory is achieved by manipulating the tempo of operations to generate confusion and paralysis in the adversary.5

Successfully implementing JADO requires a “paradigm shift” in military planning and execution. It demands that commanders consider all domains from the very beginning of the planning process, moving away from the traditional, stovepiped approach where each service plans its operations in its primary domain before attempting to deconflict and integrate them later.5 Furthermore, given the U.S. reliance on coalition warfare, JADO explicitly incorporates the challenge of operating in a combined environment with allies, whose capabilities and procedures must be integrated into the all-domain framework.31

The development of JADO is an implicit acknowledgment that the era of guaranteed U.S. domain dominance is over. Past doctrines, such as AirLand Battle, were predicated on the assumption that the U.S. could achieve air superiority, which would then create the conditions for freedom of maneuver on the ground.29 JADO, by contrast, starts from the premise that adversaries can now contest every domain simultaneously.5 Therefore, the new strategic objective is not necessarily to achieve total control of any single domain, but rather to achieve “decision dominance.” This is accomplished by using temporary or localized advantages in one domain to create decisive effects in another, ultimately paralyzing the adversary’s ability to command its forces. It marks a subtle but profound shift from a strategy of annihilation to a strategy of systemic paralysis.

The Engine of Dominance: The U.S. Defense-Industrial Ecosystem

The U.S. military’s technological superiority is sustained by a vast and sophisticated defense-industrial ecosystem. This ecosystem operates under the principle of strict civilian control, a cornerstone of American governance enshrined in the Constitution. The President acts as Commander-in-Chief, while Congress holds the power to declare war and, crucially, to raise, support, and fund the armed forces.22 This creates a clear, formal separation between the Department of Defense and the largely private-sector defense industry that equips it.23

The priorities of this industrial engine are guided by the National Defense Strategy, which explicitly identifies China as the “pacing challenge”.34 The Fiscal Year 2025 budget request reflects this focus, prioritizing investments in modernization to meet 21st-century threats.35 Key modernization priorities are directly aligned with the requirements of JADO and great power competition. These include developing and fielding long-range precision fires, advanced air and missile defense systems, cyber and electronic warfare capabilities, AI-driven command and control systems, and a new generation of unmanned and autonomous platforms.36

Concrete examples of this strategic pivot are evident across the services. The U.S. Army’s 2024 force structure transformation is a prime case, divesting legacy systems designed for counterinsurgency while creating new, high-tech formations such as Multi-Domain Task Forces (MDTFs) built to deliver long-range kinetic and non-kinetic effects.39 Similarly, the U.S. Air Force is investing heavily in its Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) family of systems, Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), and the modernization of its nuclear triad with the B-21 Raider bomber and the Sentinel ICBM, all aimed at maintaining strategic superiority over a peer adversary.40

However, this powerful industrial ecosystem faces a significant challenge. The U.S. defense acquisition system has been optimized for decades to produce small numbers of exquisite, technologically complex, and extremely expensive platforms like aircraft carriers and stealth fighters. While these systems remain critical, the emerging character of modern warfare, as observed in conflicts like the war in Ukraine, increasingly demands mass, speed, and affordability—particularly in areas like attritable drones and loitering munitions. Directives to “accelerate delivery of war winning capabilities,” “eliminate wasteful spending,” and “reform the acquisition process” indicate a recognition that the current system is often too slow and inefficient to keep pace with the threat.37 This creates a fundamental tension: the established industrial base excels at large, multi-decade programs, but the future battlefield may be dominated by the rapid, iterative development of cheaper, more numerous, and potentially disposable systems. The U.S. is attempting to pivot, but its deeply entrenched industrial and bureaucratic structures present a formidable hurdle to this transformation.

Part II: The Chinese Way of War: Regional Bastion and System Confrontation

China’s military philosophy is a product of its unique history, political ideology, and strategic circumstances. It has evolved from a continental, revolutionary mindset into a sophisticated, technologically driven approach aimed at securing its regional interests and challenging the post-Cold War, U.S.-led order. Its core tenets are designed to counter a more powerful, expeditionary adversary by leveraging geography, asymmetric technology, and a whole-of-nation approach to military modernization.

The Philosophy of “Active Defense”

The cornerstone of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) strategic thought is “Active Defense” (积极防御, jījí fángyù). This is not a modern invention but a long-standing concept with roots in the revolutionary warfare of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), first articulated by Mao Zedong as early as 1935.43 The philosophy is a deliberate paradox: it maintains a strategically defensive posture, asserting that China will not be the aggressor, while simultaneously authorizing tactically and operationally offensive actions to defeat an attacking enemy.3 It is a strategy of counter-attack, designed to seize the initiative from an opponent who strikes first.

This philosophy has not been static. The PLA has issued nine major strategic guidelines since 1949, with three representing fundamental shifts in direction.43 The most significant of these occurred in 1993, a direct reaction to two world-changing events: the collapse of the Soviet Union, which removed the primary land threat to China’s north, and the stunning display of U.S. technological prowess in the First Gulf War.3 These events convinced PLA planners that their traditional strategy of “luring the enemy in deep” to swallow an invader in a protracted “People’s War” was obsolete. The new imperative was to win “local wars under high-technology conditions” by fighting a forward defense along China’s periphery, keeping any conflict far from its vital economic and political centers.3

Today, this philosophy is inextricably linked to President Xi Jinping’s overarching national goal of the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”.3 Achieving this “Chinese Dream” requires a powerful military capable of protecting China’s sovereignty, securing its expanding overseas interests, and, crucially, preventing a repeat of the “century of humiliation” when foreign powers intervened in and dominated China.4 Active Defense, in its modern form, is therefore the military expression of this national ambition: a strategy to create a regional bastion so formidable that it deters intervention in what China considers its internal affairs, most notably Taiwan.17 It is a patient, long-term strategy that prioritizes political objectives, seeks to win without fighting where possible, but prepares to win quickly and decisively if conflict becomes unavoidable.

The Doctrine of “Intelligentized Warfare” and System Destruction

The modern operational expression of Active Defense is a doctrine centered on information, technology, and systemic disruption. The PLA’s modernization has progressed through distinct but overlapping phases: from mechanization (building a modern force of tanks, ships, and planes) to informatization (networking those platforms) and now to intelligentization (integrating artificial intelligence, big data, and autonomous systems into every aspect of warfare).8 This final phase, which China believes is the next revolution in military affairs, is intended to allow the PLA to “leapfrog” its competitors.9

The central warfighting concept within this framework is “system destruction warfare” (体系破击战, tǐxì pòjī zhàn). This doctrine, developed from years of studying the U.S. military’s network-centric approach, posits that a modern, technologically advanced military is a highly integrated “system of systems”.9 Its greatest strength—the network that connects sensors, command nodes, and shooters—is also its greatest vulnerability.7 Therefore, victory is achieved not by destroying enemy platforms in a battle of attrition, but by attacking the C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) architecture that enables the system to function. The objective is to sever the links, blind the sensors, and jam the communications, causing the adversary’s entire warfighting system to collapse into a collection of isolated, ineffective parts.7

To execute this doctrine, the PLA has invested heavily in asymmetric “assassin’s mace” (杀手锏, shāshǒujiǎn) capabilities—niche, high-impact weapons designed to exploit specific vulnerabilities of a superior foe.21 The most prominent examples are its families of anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), such as the DF-21D and DF-26, and its development of hypersonic weapons.11 These weapons are designed to hold high-value U.S. assets, particularly aircraft carriers and major forward bases like Guam, at risk from hundreds or even thousands of miles away.11 This doctrine of systemic fragility is a direct counter to the U.S. doctrine of network-centric integration. A PLA campaign would likely commence not with a direct assault on U.S. forces, but with a multi-domain barrage of cyber attacks, electronic warfare, anti-satellite weapons, and long-range missile strikes aimed at blinding, deafening, and decapitating the U.S. military before the main battle is joined.

The Engine of Modernization: Military-Civil Fusion (MCF)

Underpinning the PLA’s rapid technological advancement is a unique national strategy known as Military-Civil Fusion (MCF, 军民融合, jūnmín rónghé). Personally overseen by Xi Jinping, MCF is an aggressive, whole-of-government effort to build a “world-class military” by 2049.24 Its core objective is to systematically eliminate the barriers between China’s civilian research and commercial sectors and its military and defense industrial sectors. The goal is to ensure that any new innovation, whether developed in a state lab, a private company, or a university, simultaneously advances both economic and military development.24

MCF targets key dual-use technologies that are seen as driving the future of warfare: artificial intelligence, quantum computing, big data, semiconductors, 5G, and aerospace technology.24 The Chinese Communist Party implements this strategy through a wide range of licit and illicit means. These include direct state investment in private industries, global talent recruitment programs, directing academic and research collaboration toward military ends, and leveraging intelligence gathering, forced technology transfer, and outright theft to acquire foreign technology.24 The strategy explicitly exploits the open and transparent nature of the global research enterprise to bolster the PLA’s capabilities, often without the knowledge or consent of foreign partners.51

Military-Civil Fusion is far more than a simple defense procurement strategy; it represents a fundamental reconception of national power. It treats technological prowess, economic strength, and military might not as separate pillars of statecraft, but as a single, integrated objective. In the U.S. system, a clear, if sometimes blurry, line exists between a commercial tech firm and a defense contractor. MCF deliberately erases that line. A Chinese company developing AI for commercial logistics is, by national strategy, also developing it for military logistics. A university conducting fundamental research in quantum computing is contributing directly to national defense.51 This creates a strategic competition that transcends the military domain, turning the entire globalized economy and research ecosystem into a potential arena of conflict. For the United States and its allies, this means that competing with China militarily requires competing with its entire national technological and industrial base.

Part III: A Comparative Strategic Framework: Similarities, Differences, and Asymmetries

While the military philosophies of the United States and China are born of different histories and geopolitical realities, they exhibit striking points of convergence alongside their profound divergences. Both powers are grappling with the same technological revolution and have arrived at similar conclusions about the future character of war. Yet, their strategic responses to these shared realities are fundamentally asymmetric, reflecting their different positions in the international system, their geographic circumstances, and their political structures.

Points of Convergence – The Race for Decision Dominance

Despite their opposing strategic postures, both the U.S. and Chinese militaries have independently concluded that the decisive element in modern, high-tech warfare is the ability to make better decisions faster than the enemy. The future battlefield will not be won simply by the side with the superior platforms, but by the side with the superior information processing and command and control architecture. This shared belief has ignited a race for what can be termed “decision dominance.”

The U.S. concept of JADC2 is explicitly designed to “deliver information and decision advantage” to commanders, enabling them to operate inside an adversary’s OODA loop.5 Similarly, China’s doctrine of “Informatized Warfare” seeks to achieve “Information Dominance” by disrupting the enemy’s C2 systems, thereby paralyzing their ability to make coherent decisions.7 Russian military analysis, observing both powers, confirms this convergence, noting that a shared objective is “achieving dominance in decision-making in future wars”.9 To this end, both nations are pouring immense resources into the enabling technologies of this new era of warfare. The U.S. is pursuing “AI-driven command and control” at all echelons 37, while China’s entire concept of “intelligentization” is predicated on the mass integration of AI to accelerate sensing, analysis, and action.45

This convergence on decision-centric warfare creates a deeply unstable dynamic. When victory is perceived to depend on striking first and disabling the enemy’s cognitive functions, it creates a powerful “first-mover advantage.” In a crisis, the side that believes its AI-enabled C2 system can achieve a decisive advantage in the opening moments may be more tempted to launch a preemptive cyber, electronic, or kinetic strike against the adversary’s C2 network. This establishes a dangerous “use it or lose it” pressure on both sides’ most critical command systems, making any crisis over a flashpoint like Taiwan incredibly volatile and prone to rapid, hard-to-control escalation.

Points of Divergence – Expeditionary Offense vs. A2/AD Defense

The sharpest contrast between the two military postures lies in their geographic orientation and operational approach. The U.S. military is fundamentally an expeditionary force, structured for global power projection. Its ability to deploy and sustain forces thousands of miles from its homeland, centered on its fleet of 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and a global network of bases, is the primary instrument of its foreign policy and military strategy.1

China’s military, in direct response, is structured as a regional bastion. Its A2/AD strategy is explicitly designed to counter U.S. power projection by raising the costs of intervention to an unacceptable level.20 This strategy creates a layered, integrated defense network of sensors, long-range anti-ship missiles, submarines, and air power that extends hundreds of miles from its coast, covering the First and Second Island Chains.11 This creates a significant “home game” advantage, where China’s land-based assets, particularly the PLA Rocket Force, can provide immense firepower to augment its naval and air forces.49 This has forced the U.S. to begin shifting its strategic focus from simple power projection to what some analysts call “power protection”—developing the capabilities and concepts needed for its forward forces to survive and operate effectively within a highly contested A2/AD environment.29

This creates a competition that is not symmetric—carrier versus carrier or fighter versus fighter—but is instead highly asymmetric. A U.S. carrier strike group operating in the Western Pacific would not merely face the Chinese Navy; it would be targeted by the full weight of China’s land-based missile forces, its space-based surveillance systems, and its cyber and electronic warfare units.48 China’s land-based “carrier-killer” anti-ship ballistic missiles, for example, possess a range that can exceed that of the aircraft deployed on a U.S. carrier. This forces U.S. naval forces to either operate from farther away, reducing their combat effectiveness and sortie rates, or to enter a “kill zone” and accept a level of risk not faced since World War II. China has successfully weaponized geography to offset the qualitative and quantitative superiority of U.S. expeditionary platforms.

The Alliance Factor – A Networked Coalition vs. Strategic Self-Reliance

A final, profound asymmetry lies in how each nation approaches partnerships. The U.S. military strategy is inseparable from its global network of formal treaty allies, including NATO in Europe and Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia in the Indo-Pacific.13 These alliances are not merely political arrangements; they are integral to U.S. military operations, providing essential basing, logistical support, intelligence sharing, and substantial additional combat power.14

China, by contrast, officially “advocates partnerships rather than alliances and does not join any military bloc”.17 Its relationships, even its close strategic partnership with Russia, are pragmatic and lack the binding mutual defense commitments of a formal alliance.16 Russian analysis suggests that while military cooperation with China is deep, it is highly unlikely to evolve into a formal alliance, primarily because Beijing is unwilling to cede any of its strategic autonomy or be drawn into conflicts not of its own choosing.58

This divergence presents a fundamental strategic trade-off for both sides. The U.S. approach generates potentially overwhelming combat mass and enhances the political legitimacy of its actions. However, operating as a coalition introduces immense friction. The need to coordinate the command and control, technological systems, and political objectives of multiple nations is an extraordinary challenge—one that the JADO concept explicitly seeks to address.31 This complexity inevitably slows down the decision-making cycle that JADO is trying to accelerate. China’s approach, conversely, preserves absolute unity of command and action. Decisions can be made and executed with a speed and coherence that a coalition would struggle to match. However, this self-reliance comes at the cost of potential strategic isolation. In a major conflict, China could find itself facing a coalition of powerful nations with no formal allies obligated to come to its aid. In essence, the United States trades speed for mass, while China trades mass for speed.

Part IV: Strategic Implications and Future Outlook

The collision of these competing military philosophies is reshaping the strategic landscape, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. The doctrinal and technological race between the United States and China is not an abstract exercise; it is actively playing out in the gray zone and defining the potential character of a future conflict. Understanding this dynamic is critical for assessing risk and navigating the turbulent decades ahead.

The Shifting Military Balance and Flashpoint Scenarios

The theoretical comparison of military doctrines becomes starkly practical when applied to the region’s most volatile flashpoints: Taiwan and the South China Sea. These are the arenas where the U.S. philosophy of power projection directly confronts China’s strategy of Active Defense and A2/AD.

Taiwan remains the most dangerous potential flashpoint for a direct U.S.-China conflict.59 The PLA’s modernization is increasingly postured to provide Beijing with a credible military option to compel unification, with a key benchmark set for 2027.46 A Chinese campaign against Taiwan could manifest in several ways, from a “gray zone” quarantine led by its coast guard to disrupt shipping and assert administrative control, to a full-scale military blockade and invasion.61 Any such scenario would represent a direct clash of doctrines. A Chinese A2/AD bubble would be established to deter or defeat U.S. intervention, employing the principles of system destruction warfare against incoming U.S. naval and air forces. A U.S. response, guided by its obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act, would be a textbook application of JADO, attempting to penetrate this A2/AD zone and disrupt China’s invasion plans through integrated, multi-domain attacks.62

In the South China Sea, this doctrinal clash is already a daily reality. China’s assertion of sovereignty via its “nine-dash line,” coupled with its construction and militarization of artificial islands, is a direct challenge to the principle of freedom of navigation, a core U.S. interest.64 U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS), where naval vessels sail through waters claimed by China, are a tangible application of the power projection philosophy, demonstrating that Washington does not accept Beijing’s claims and will operate its military wherever international law allows.65 China’s response—using its navy, coast guard, and maritime militia to shadow, harass, and attempt to expel U.S. ships—is a real-world application of its A2/AD and Active Defense mindset in the gray zone, short of open conflict.66 These interactions are a constant, high-stakes dialogue conducted with military hardware, where both sides test each other’s resolve, refine their operational procedures, and signal their strategic intent. The inherent risk is that a miscalculation by a single ship captain or pilot in this tense environment could rapidly escalate into the high-intensity conflict that both militaries are preparing to fight.

The Future Character of Conflict

The trajectory of this strategic competition points toward a future battlefield that is radically different from those of the past. It will be a battlespace saturated with ubiquitous sensors, from satellites in orbit to unmanned systems underwater, all connected through resilient networks and processing data at machine speed.69 The defining characteristic of future conflict will be a relentless “contest of data and deception.”

In response, the U.S. is driving its forces to become “leaner, more lethal,” and more adaptable. Its modernization efforts are focused on developing the tools for this new era: long-range autonomous weapons, AI-driven command and control, and resilient, networked communications.37 The goal is to create a force that can absorb an initial blow and still generate overwhelming, coordinated effects across all domains.

China, meanwhile, is pursuing its strategy of “intelligentization” with the explicit goal of leapfrogging U.S. capabilities. It believes that by mastering AI and autonomy within its state-directed, military-civil fused system, it can achieve an enduring advantage in decision speed and operational effectiveness, rendering traditional U.S. platform superiority irrelevant.9

This sets the stage for a future conflict defined by a “battle of the logics.” The United States is betting on the logic of network resilience. Its JADO concept is a wager that it can build a network of networks so robust, redundant, and intelligent that it can withstand systemic attacks and continue to function, ultimately overwhelming the enemy. China is betting on the logic of systemic fragility. Its doctrine of System Destruction is a wager that any complex network, no matter how resilient, contains critical nodes and unavoidable dependencies that can be identified and severed, triggering a cascading collapse that paralyzes the entire force. This is not just a technological race to build better hardware; it is a conceptual struggle over the fundamental nature of networked warfare. The winner of a future conflict may not be the side with the most advanced ship or plane, but the side whose underlying assumption about this new character of war proves more correct.

Conclusion – Ten Key Lessons for the Modern Strategist

The strategic competition between the United States and China is a multi-faceted and dynamic challenge that will define the international security environment for decades to come. A comparative analysis of their military philosophies reveals a complex interplay of converging technological paths and diverging strategic cultures. For the modern strategist, policymaker, and industry analyst, ten key lessons emerge from this analysis:

  1. The central battlefield of the 21st century is the network. Both powers have concluded that victory hinges on “decision dominance.” The U.S. JADC2 and China’s “Informatized Warfare” are parallel efforts to achieve information superiority, making the command, control, and communications architecture of each side the primary target and the primary weapon in any future conflict.
  2. U.S. military power is fundamentally expeditionary and alliance-dependent. The ability to project force across the globe is the defining feature of the U.S. military. However, this strength is predicated on secure logistical chains and the political cohesion of its alliances, both of which are now primary targets for adversary strategies.
  3. China’s military philosophy is fundamentally regional and counter-interventionist. The PLA is not currently configured for global power projection but is optimized for a single, overriding task: to dominate its immediate periphery and make it impossible for the U.S. to intervene effectively in a regional crisis, thereby leveraging geography as a decisive strategic asset.
  4. The U.S. and China are engaged in a direct doctrinal race. This is the central dynamic of the military competition. The U.S. concept of JADO aims to create a perfectly integrated “kill web.” China’s concept of “System Destruction” is designed to be the ultimate “web breaker.” This is a classic offense-defense spiral playing out in the information age.
  5. The U.S. relies on a distinct, highly advanced defense industry, while China’s Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) strategy presents a whole-of-nation challenge. MCF transforms the competition from a military-to-military affair into a nation-to-nation contest across the technological, industrial, and economic domains, posing a systemic challenge to the traditional Western model of defense procurement.
  6. Alliances are a defining asymmetry. The U.S. strategy is built on the overwhelming combat potential and political legitimacy of its coalition of allies. This provides strategic depth and mass but introduces operational friction. China’s preference for self-reliance ensures unity of command and speed of action but risks strategic isolation in a widespread conflict.
  7. The character of conflict is shifting from attrition to disruption. The theories of victory for both nations prioritize the paralysis and systemic collapse of the adversary’s military over the physical destruction of its forces. This suggests that future wars could be decided with shocking speed, with the decisive blows being struck in cyberspace and the electromagnetic spectrum.
  8. Geography remains paramount. Despite technological advances, the physical realities of the Indo-Pacific theater are critical. The U.S. must overcome the “tyranny of distance” to bring its power to bear. China, by contrast, is weaponizing the “tyranny of proximity” through its A2/AD strategy, turning its geographic position into a formidable defensive advantage.
  9. The PLA’s modernization is a reactive process. For three decades, the PLA has been a dedicated student of the American way of war. Its doctrines, technologies, and force structure have been systematically developed to counter specific, perceived U.S. strengths and exploit perceived weaknesses, making it a force tailored to fight the United States.
  10. Both powers believe emerging technologies like AI are revolutionary. The race to operationalize AI is central to the competition. China’s state-directed MCF model aims to use AI to “leapfrog” the U.S. technologically. The U.S. seeks to integrate AI to perfect its vision of a fully networked, all-domain force. The nation that most effectively harnesses this technology will likely hold a decisive military advantage for years to come.


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