Analytics and Reports, Country Analytics, Military Analytics

Operation Absolute Resolve: A Military Assessment

This is a time-sensitive special report and is based on information available as of January 6, 2026. Due to the situation being very dynamic the following report should be used to obtain a perspective but not viewed as an absolute.

The execution of Operation Absolute Resolve in the early hours of January 3, 2026, constitutes a watershed event in the history of United States foreign policy, marking the definitive transition from the era of “strategic patience” and economic sanctions to a new paradigm of “kinetic denial” and “hyper-sovereignty” in the Western Hemisphere. The operation, a coordinated multi-domain strike resulting in the extrajudicial capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, was not merely a law enforcement extraction executed under the color of military authority; it was the kinetic inauguration of the “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine.1

This report provides an exhaustive, analyst-grade examination of the operation, tracing its genesis in the shifting national security doctrines of late 2025, detailing the intricate intelligence and operational mechanics of the raid itself, and forecasting the profound geopolitical and geoeconomic reorganizations now unfolding across the Americas.

The operation successfully achieved its primary tactical objectives: the decapitation of the Chavista leadership structure and the neutralization of Venezuela’s advanced Integrated Air Defense System (IADS) without US fatalities. However, the strategic aftermath presents a complex “Petro-Protectorate” scenario, where the United States has effectively assumed custodial oversight of a sovereign nation’s resource extraction infrastructure to finance the intervention—a policy described as “Reimbursement”.3 This development challenges the foundational norms of the post-1945 international order, effectively creating a precedent where sovereignty is conditional upon alignment with US hemispheric security interests and the exclusion of extra-hemispheric adversaries, specifically the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation.

2. Strategic Context: The Doctrinal Shift to the “Trump Corollary”

2.1 The 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS)

To understand the rationale behind Operation Absolute Resolve, one must analyze the ideological framework established in the months preceding the strike. The December 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) explicitly articulated a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine.2 Unlike the historical Roosevelt Corollary, which justified US intervention to stabilize Latin American economies and prevent European debt collection, the Trump Corollary is fundamentally exclusionist and securitized.

The doctrine posits that the Western Hemisphere is the primary strategic arena for the United States and that the physical or economic control of strategic assets—such as deep-water ports, energy grids, and telecommunications infrastructure—by “non-Hemispheric competitors” constitutes a direct kinetic threat to the US homeland.5 The administration reclassified the Maduro regime not merely as a rogue socialist state or a human rights violator, but as a forward operating base for Eurasian adversaries. The presence of Russian military advisors, Wagner Group remnants, and Chinese dual-use infrastructure projects was interpreted as incompatible with the restored Monroe Doctrine.7

2.2 The “Donroe Doctrine” and Resource Nationalism

President Trump, in post-operation remarks, colloquially referred to this policy shift as the “Donroe Doctrine,” asserting that “American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again”.9 This rhetorical flourish underscores a substantive policy pivot: the willingness to use military force to secure access to energy and mineral resources.

Intelligence reports highlighted the critical importance of Venezuelan reserves of coltan and tantalum—minerals vital for advanced defense technologies including the F-35 supply chain and AI hardware—as a driver for the intervention.10 The strategic calculation was that allowing these resources to remain under the influence of a Beijing-aligned Caracas was an unacceptable vulnerability in the US defense industrial base. Thus, the “Narco-Terrorism” indictments served as the legal mechanism (lawfare) to execute a geopolitical seizure of strategic ground.1

3. Operational Preparation of the Environment (OPE)

The success of Operation Absolute Resolve was predicated on a sophisticated and prolonged Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) that commenced significantly earlier than the kinetic execution.

3.1 Intelligence Infiltration and “Pattern of Life” Analysis

Beginning in August 2025, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) successfully deployed clandestine ground teams into Caracas.11 The primary objective of these teams was to establish a granular “pattern of life” for Nicolás Maduro. This surveillance went beyond traditional movement tracking; it encompassed the most minute details of the target’s existence, including his sleep locations (which rotated between six to eight fortified sites), his dietary habits, his clothing choices, and notably, the movements of his pets.11

This depth of intelligence suggests a catastrophic compromise of Maduro’s inner security circle. While the President relied heavily on Cuban counterintelligence details—who were reportedly more trusted than Venezuelan nationals and enforced strict bans on mobile phone usage near the leader—the CIA briefed that they had cultivated a human source inside the highest echelons of the Venezuelan government.11 This human intelligence (HUMINT) was critical in narrowing the search radius on the night of the operation.

3.2 Technological Surveillance: The Return of the “Wraith”

Complementing the ground infiltration was the deployment of advanced aerial reconnaissance assets. The operation saw the reactivation of the RQ-170 Sentinel stealth drone, known by the moniker “Wraith”.12 Spotters identified this platform operating out of the former Naval Station Roosevelt Roads in Puerto Rico.14

The RQ-170’s role was likely twofold:

  1. Persistent Surveillance: Providing continuous overhead watch of key regime locations without detection.
  2. Electronic Mapping: Developing a high-fidelity Electronic Order of Battle (EOB) of Venezuela’s air defense network. The ability to map the emission signatures of the S-300VM and Buk-M2 batteries allowed planners to design a suppression strategy that could neutralize these threats electronically before kinetic munitions were employed.14

3.3 Rehearsals and Weather Dependencies

The physical execution of the capture was rehearsed extensively by US special operations forces. Delta Force operators trained on a full-scale replica of Maduro’s Fuerte Tiuna compound, mirroring the preparations undertaken for the 2011 raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad.15 These rehearsals allowed the assault force to optimize breach points and movement timing, crucial for an operation where seconds would dictate the difference between capture and a protracted siege.

The operation was originally tentatively scheduled for as early as Christmas Day but was postponed due to unfavorable weather conditions.16 General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, emphasized that the launch criteria required specific atmospheric conditions to favor the acoustic and visual concealment of the rotary-wing insertion force.17

4. Force Composition: The “Absolute Resolve” Package

Operation Absolute Resolve was characterized by an overwhelming application of air power relative to the size of the ground element. The Department of Defense confirmed the participation of over 150 aircraft launching from 20 different bases across the Western Hemisphere.17 This force package was designed not just for transport, but for total airspace dominance against a peer-level air defense threat.

4.1 Air Component

  • Air Superiority and Sanitization: F-22 Raptors and F-35 Lightning IIs were deployed to establish air supremacy and sanitize the airspace of any Venezuelan Air Force response.16 The F-35s likely also contributed to the electronic warfare picture.
  • Strategic Strike: B-1B Lancers were utilized, a significant escalation for a capture mission. Their role likely involved the deployment of standoff precision munitions (such as JASSM-ER) to destroy hardened command and control (C2) nodes and air defense radars from outside the engagement envelope of Venezuelan SAMs.20
  • Electronic Warfare (EW): EA-18 Growlers provided the jamming blanket, blinding Venezuelan radar and disrupting communications networks.20
  • Battle Management: E-2 Hawkeyes served as the airborne command posts, managing the complex traffic of 150 assets in a confined airspace.20
  • Rotary Wing Assault: The 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (SOAR)—the “Night Stalkers”—provided the lift for the assault force. The package included MH-60 Black Hawks (likely in Direct Action Penetrator configurations for close air support) and MH-47 Chinooks for heavy lift and extraction.16

4.2 Maritime and Ground Components

  • Naval Staging: The USS Iwo Jima (LHD-7), a Wasp-class amphibious assault ship, served as the primary afloat forward staging base (AFSB) for the helicopter force and the initial processing point for the high-value targets.16
  • Special Operations Support: The M/V Ocean Trader, a specialized maritime support vessel adapted for special operations, had been pre-positioned in the region for months, likely serving as a covert logistics and intelligence hub.16
  • Assault Force: The primary ground force consisted of operators from the US Army’s Delta Force (1st Special Forces Operational Detachment-Delta), supported by FBI Hostage Rescue Team (HRT) elements for the legal processing of evidence and the targets.12

5. Execution Phase I: Shaping and Suppression (02:00 Hours)

The operation commenced not with an explosion, but with a silence. At approximately 02:00 local time (Venezuela Standard Time), a synchronized cyber-kinetic event plunged large sections of Caracas into darkness.11

5.1 The Cyber-Kinetic Convergence

President Trump later alluded to this blackout as the result of “a certain expertise,” while Gen. Caine referenced “layering effects” involving US Cyber Command.13 Analysis indicates a hybrid attack vector:

  • Cyber Operations: US Cyber Command likely infiltrated the SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) systems of the Venezuelan national power grid. The objective was to confuse grid operators and prevent rapid rerouting of power.
  • Kinetic Strikes: Simultaneously, precision munitions targeted specific power substations and transmission nodes feeding Fuerte Tiuna and key military radar sites.11

This “blinding” technique was operationally critical. By cutting power, the US forces degraded the optical and radar tracking capabilities of the Venezuelan defenses. The blackout also disabled the “city lights” of Caracas, reducing the ambient light that could have silhouetted the inbound helicopters.21

5.2 Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD)

With the grid compromised, the air component initiated a massive Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) campaign. Unlike previous special operations raids (e.g., bin Laden or al-Baghdadi), which faced minimal air defense threats, Operation Absolute Resolve required the neutralization of an integrated system.21

  • Hard Kill: Pre-planned airstrikes targeted the S-300VM batteries and Buk-M2 medium-range SAM sites. Satellite imagery later confirmed the destruction of at least one Buk-M2E system and red-roofed storage facilities at Fuerte Tiuna believed to house missile components.16
  • Soft Kill: Electronic warfare assets (EA-18G Growlers) jammed the acquisition radars that survived the initial volley, creating a “corridor of suppression.”

6. Execution Phase II: The Raid on Fuerte Tiuna (02:01 – 04:29 Hours)

6.1 Ingress and Infiltration

Flying through the “dark corridor” created by the cyber and SEAD attacks, the 160th SOAR helicopters ingressed at an altitude of just 100 feet above the Caribbean Sea and the coastal terrain to mask their radar signature.20 They arrived at the target—the Fuerte Tiuna military complex—at 02:01 local time.19

Fuerte Tiuna, a sprawling military base in Caracas, houses the Ministry of Defense and key residences for the regime leadership. It is a fortified zone, featuring bunkers and tunnels built into the adjacent mountainside.16

6.2 Actions at the Objective

The Delta Force assault team executed a “bum rush” tactic, designed to overwhelm the target’s security detail through speed and violence of action.16 The objective was to breach Maduro’s residence before he could retreat into a hardened steel “safe room” designed for such an eventuality.24

  • The Breach: Utilizing specialized breaching charges and what reports described as “massive blowtorches,” the operators penetrated the fortified doors of the residence.3
  • The Capture: Maduro and Cilia Flores were apprehended while attempting to flee toward the safe room. The speed of the assault prevented them from sealing themselves inside, which would have necessitated a prolonged siege.24
  • The Firefight: The extraction was contested. While the initial breach achieved surprise, the Venezuelan security forces—particularly the Cuban intelligence detail and the 312th “Ayala” Armored Cavalry Battalion—rallied. US gunships and strike aircraft provided close air support, destroying almost all of the 312th Battalion’s armor (Dragoon 300 vehicles) and several transport trucks.16

6.3 Casualties and Damage Assessment

The engagement was lethal for the regime’s defenders.

  • Venezuelan/Cuban Casualties: Reporting indicates that at least 56 personnel were killed, including 24 Venezuelan military members and 32 Cuban security and intelligence advisors.22 The high ratio of Cuban casualties underscores the extent to which Havana’s agents formed the innermost ring of protection for Maduro.
  • US Casualties: There were no US fatalities. However, one helicopter was “hit pretty hard” by ground fire, and President Trump noted that “a couple of guys were hit,” implying non-life-threatening injuries to the operators.12 The damaged helicopter remained flyable and successfully egressed.25
  • Infrastructure Damage: Satellite imagery revealed the total destruction of three long barracks buildings, two storage facilities, and gate security buildings at Fuerte Tiuna. An entrance to a suspected underground facility (UGF) was also destroyed, likely to prevent reinforcements from emerging from the tunnel network.16

7. Execution Phase III: Extraction and Transfer

The extraction force departed the objective and was “feet wet” (over water) by 03:29 local time, marking a total time on the ground of approximately 90 minutes and a total operation time of roughly 2.5 hours.11

The high-value targets (Maduro and Flores) were transported to the USS Iwo Jima, where they were processed and transferred to a fixed-wing aircraft for transport to the United States.24 They were flown to New York, landing at a Manhattan helipad to face immediate arraignment in the Southern District of New York (SDNY).22

8. Post-Operation Governance: The Delcy Rodríguez Paradox

The political aftermath of the operation revealed a pragmatic, if cynical, US strategy. Rather than installing the opposition leader María Corina Machado—who had won the disputed 2024 election—the Trump administration facilitated the swearing-in of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as the interim president.26

8.1 The “Co-Opted Regime” Model

This decision represents a “co-opted regime” model. Rodríguez, a longtime Chavista loyalist and sanctioned individual, was allowed to assume power under explicit conditions dictated by Washington. President Trump stated publicly that she would remain in power “only so long as she does what we want” and threatened a “secondary strike” if she failed to cooperate.26

This arrangement serves two US strategic interests:

  1. Stability: It preserves the administrative state and the loyalty of the military command structure, preventing the chaotic vacuum that followed the de-Baathification of Iraq.
  2. Compliance: A compromised leader, operating under the threat of immediate removal/arrest, is viewed as more pliable for executing US economic directives than a democratic leader beholden to a varied coalition.27

9. Economic Reconstruction: The “Reimbursement” Doctrine

The economic rationale for the operation was made explicit in the immediate aftermath: “Reimbursement.” The Trump administration articulated a policy wherein the cost of the military intervention and the subsequent reconstruction of Venezuela would be financed directly by Venezuelan oil revenues.3

9.1 Executive Order 14157

Executive Order 14157 outlines the legal framework for this “Petro-Protectorate” status. It establishes mechanisms for the US to oversee the management of PDVSA (Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A.) and directs the integration of US energy majors (ExxonMobil, Chevron) into the Venezuelan extraction architecture.3

The goal is to rapidly revitalize the Venezuelan oil sector, increasing production from the current ~900,000 barrels per day (bpd) to potential levels of 2-3 million bpd over the coming years. This influx of supply is strategically designed to lower global oil prices, thereby reducing the revenues of petro-states hostile to the US, specifically Russia and Iran.30

9.2 The “Reshoring” of Resources

The operation effectively “reshores” the vast energy reserves of the Orinoco Belt into the US strategic sphere. By physically removing a regime aligned with China and Russia, the US has denied its adversaries access to the world’s largest proven oil reserves. This aligns with the “Resource Recovery” pillar of the Trump Corollary, which treats hemispheric resources as a component of US national supply chain security.3

10. Geopolitical Fallout and International Law

10.1 The Collapse of International Norms

Operation Absolute Resolve represents a stark challenge to the Westphalian system and the norms of sovereign immunity. The indictment and capture of a sitting head of state via a unilateral military raid—justified as a “law enforcement action”—sets a precedent that erodes the protection traditionally afforded to political leaders.31

Critics argue that by framing the operation as a police action against “narco-terrorism,” the US bypassed the constitutional requirement for a congressional declaration of war. This expands the interpretation of Article II self-defense authorities to include “protection of US personnel” from the indirect threat of drug trafficking, a legal theory that has significant implications for future US interventions.5

10.2 The Eurasian Defeat

For China and Russia, the operation is a strategic humiliation and a material loss.

  • China: Beijing faces a significant “supply shock” and the potential default on billions of dollars in loans that were to be repaid with Venezuelan oil shipments.34 The US takeover of the oil sector provides Washington with leverage over China’s energy security and serves as a forceful demonstration of the US ability to sever China’s supply lines in a conflict scenario.10
  • Russia: Moscow’s inability to protect a key ally in the Western Hemisphere exposes the limits of its power projection capabilities. The destruction of the Russian-supplied S-300VM systems without the loss of a single US aircraft serves as a devastating counter-marketing event for the Russian defense industry.12 While the Kremlin has issued rhetorical condemnations, the lack of a material response confirms that the Caribbean remains an operational “no-go zone” for Russian conventional forces.8

10.3 Regional Realignment

Across Latin America, the reaction is one of shock and forced realignment. The “Trump Corollary” matrix (Visual 1) suggests that other nations with “unacceptable” ties to extra-hemispheric powers or cartels—such as Mexico or Colombia—may face increased pressure to align with US security directives.3 The operation serves as a demonstration effect: the cost of non-alignment is no longer just sanctions, but potential kinetic decapitation.

11. Conclusion

Operation Absolute Resolve was a tactical masterstroke that utilized the full spectrum of US military capabilities—cyber, space, stealth aviation, and special operations—to achieve a strategic objective with minimal friendly cost. It demonstrated that the US military possesses the capability to dismantle the defenses of a mid-tier adversary and remove its leadership in a single night.

However, the strategic success will be determined by the viability of the “Petro-Protectorate” model. By assuming responsibility for the governance and economic reconstruction of Venezuela, the United States has entangled itself in the internal mechanics of a fractured state. The “Trump Corollary” has redefined the Western Hemisphere as a closed security block, asserting that sovereignty is secondary to US strategic denial. Whether this leads to a stable, US-aligned energy hub or a protracted insurgency against a “puppet” regime remains the defining question of the new era.

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