This report provides a definitive analysis and ranking of the world’s top 50 small arms producers, employing a proprietary, data-driven methodology based on Estimated 2024 Small Arms Revenue (ESAR). The objective is to deliver a clear and objective hierarchy of the industry’s key players, from massive state-owned conglomerates to highly specialized firearms manufacturers. The top of the global hierarchy is dominated by a mix of these archetypes, including the state-backed defense titans of Russia (Rostec/Kalashnikov Concern) and China (NORINCO), and the specialized, market-agile leaders from Europe and the United States, such as Beretta Holding and the FN Browning Group.

The analysis reveals several critical findings that define the contemporary small arms market. First, the industry is characterized by a fundamental dichotomy. On one side are diversified defense giants, for whom small arms represent a small but strategically vital segment of a vast portfolio that includes everything from armored vehicles to aerospace systems. On the other are specialized manufacturers, whose entire business model, brand identity, and innovation pipeline are centered on firearms for military, law enforcement, and civilian markets.

Second, geopolitical factors, most notably the ongoing war in Ukraine and heightened global tensions, have fundamentally reshaped the market landscape.¹ This has triggered a massive surge in demand for both weapons and, critically, ammunition, leading to record order backlogs and a strategic imperative for producers to expand manufacturing capacity.³ The conflict has also served as a real-world crucible, accelerating the demand for technologically advanced, modular, and adaptable weapon systems that can integrate sophisticated optics and accessories, favoring innovative firms over those producing legacy platforms.

Finally, while production remains geographically concentrated in North America, Europe, Russia, and China, the market is being increasingly disrupted by ascendant players. Technologically advanced and cost-competitive producers from Turkey, Israel, and South Korea are capturing significant export market share, challenging the established order. This report navigates the core analytical challenge of opaque financial data, particularly from state-owned and private entities, by using the robust ESAR methodology, which is documented in the Appendix, to provide the most accurate possible snapshot of this dynamic and strategically critical global industry.

Section 2: Defining the Modern Small Arms Landscape

To conduct a rigorous analysis, it is essential to first establish a clear analytical framework. This involves defining the precise scope of “small arms” for this report and outlining the macroeconomic and geopolitical forces shaping the current market environment.

2.1 Defining “Small Arms”

The term “small arms” lacks a single, universally agreed-upon definition, with various international bodies adopting scopes that reflect their specific policy or operational priorities. This definitional ambiguity can create challenges in data collection and can be exploited by nations in arms control reporting, making a clear operational definition for this analysis paramount.

The United Nations (UN), primarily concerned with combating illicit trafficking, defines small arms as man-portable lethal weapons designed for individual use. This category includes revolvers and self-loading pistols, rifles and carbines, sub-machine guns, assault rifles, and light machine guns.⁴ This definition forms the core of this report’s scope. The Small Arms Survey (SAS), an independent research project, builds upon the UN definition by adding a practical calibre limit of less than 20mm, which serves as a useful technical boundary to distinguish small arms from heavier weapons like autocannons.⁶ Military alliances such as NATO and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) offer operational definitions that align broadly with the UN, categorizing small arms as weapons for individual use and “light weapons” as those designed to be operated by a crew.⁸

For the purposes of this report, the following operational definition will be used:

• Small Arms: A category of firearms including pistols, revolvers, rifles (assault, battle, sniper, and carbine variants), submachine guns, and light machine guns. Also included are their core components and associated small-caliber ammunition, as weapons and ammunition are complementary goods essential for a functioning system.¹⁰
• Exclusions: Light weapons, such as heavy machine guns, mounted grenade launchers, and mortars of any caliber, are explicitly excluded to maintain a focused analysis on individual and squad-level infantry weapons.

2.2 Global Market Overview & Key Drivers

The global small arms market is a significant sector of the broader defense industry, valued at approximately USD 10.29 billion in 2025 and projected to grow to USD 12.78 billion by 2030.¹¹ This growth is propelled by several powerful, intersecting drivers.

• Military Modernization and Geopolitical Tensions: The primary driver of market growth is the global surge in defense procurement, fueled by heightened geopolitical instability. The war in Ukraine has acted as a powerful catalyst, compelling European nations to re-arm and modernize their armed forces after decades of relative underinvestment.² This has resulted in a dramatic increase in orders for small arms and, particularly, ammunition, leading to record backlogs for many producers and a strategic push to expand production capacity.¹
• Civilian Market Dynamics: The civilian market, especially in North America, remains a crucial revenue source for many of the world’s top producers, including Smith & Wesson and Sturm, Ruger & Co..¹¹ This market is often counter-cyclical to military procurement and can be influenced by domestic political events, creating both significant opportunities and volatility. The dual-market nature of the industry creates a complex dynamic; strong civilian sales can fund research and development for military contracts, but also expose companies to greater political and reputational risk. The most resilient firms are those that can successfully balance both markets, using success in one to hedge against downturns in the other.
• Technological Advancement: The industry is experiencing a significant technological shift away from legacy platforms toward lightweight, modular weapon systems. These modern firearms are designed for adaptability, allowing for the easy integration of advanced optics, suppressors, laser designators, and other accessories.¹¹ This trend is exemplified by the U.S. Army’s Next Generation Squad Weapon (NGSW) program, which is driving innovation in intermediate calibers (such as 6.8mm) and integrated fire control systems.¹¹

Section 3: The Global Top 50 Small Arms Producers: A Comprehensive Ranking

The following table presents the definitive ranking of the top 50 global small arms producers. This ranking is the result of the proprietary Estimated 2024 Small Arms Revenue (ESAR) methodology, which is detailed in the Appendix. The ESAR figure is a carefully derived estimate of a company’s revenue from the sale of small arms, their core components, and associated ammunition, standardized to the 2024 fiscal year. This approach allows for an objective, data-driven comparison of companies with vastly different structures and levels of financial transparency.

Rank	Company / Parent Corporation (Division)	Country	Estimated 2024 Small Arms Revenue (ESAR) (USD Millions)	Ownership Type	Key Small Arms Platforms / Popular Examples
1	Rostec (Kalashnikov Concern)	Russia	$2,900	State-Owned	AK-12, AK-15, AK-200 series, Saiga rifles, Vityaz-SN SMG, PLK pistol
2	NORINCO (China North Industries Corporation)	China	$2,500	State-Owned	Type 56, QBZ-95, QBZ-191 assault rifles; QSZ-92 pistol; Type 88 sniper rifle
3	General Dynamics (Combat Systems)	USA	$2,200	Publicly Traded	Various small, medium, and large caliber ammunition; Lightweight Medium Machine Gun (LWMMG)
4	Rheinmetall AG (Weapon and Ammunition)	Germany	$1,800	Publicly Traded	Extensive range of small and medium caliber ammunition; components for MG3 machine gun
5	Beretta Holding	Italy	$1,700	Private	Beretta 92/M9 series, APX, PX4 Storm pistols; Benelli M4, Sako TRG, Tikka T3 rifles
6	BAE Systems (Platforms & Services)	UK	$1,250	Publicly Traded	Small arms ammunition (Radway Green); components for SA80/L85 rifle series
7	FN Browning Group	Belgium	$1,000	State-Owned (Walloon Region)	FN SCAR, F2000, FAL rifles; P90 PDW; M249 SAW; Five-seveN, Hi-Power pistols
8	Colt CZ Group SE	Czech Republic	$960	Publicly Traded	Colt M4/AR-15, CZ Bren 2 rifles; CZ Scorpion EVO 3 SMG; Colt 1911, CZ 75 pistols
9	SIG SAUER, Inc.	USA/Germany	$850	Private	SIG MCX (NGSW XM7), P320 (M17/M18), P365, P226 pistols; CROSS rifle
10	CSGC (China South Industries Group Corp.)	China	$800	State-Owned	QSZ-92 pistol, QCW-05 SMG, various rifles and machine guns for domestic use
11	Elbit Systems	Israel	$750	Publicly Traded	Small arms ammunition, weapon sights and electro-optics, Uzi parts, Tavor components
12	S&T Motiv	South Korea	$700	Publicly Traded	K2, K1A rifles; K3 LMG; K5 pistol; K14 sniper rifle
13	Glock Ges.m.b.H.	Austria	$680	Private	Glock 17, 19, 43X, 45 series of pistols
14	Heckler & Koch AG	Germany	$600	Publicly Traded	HK416, G36 rifles; MP5, UMP submachine guns; USP, VP9 pistols
15	Sturm, Ruger & Co., Inc.	USA	$536	Publicly Traded	10/22, Mini-14, American Rifle series; LCP, Security-9 pistols; GP100 revolvers
16	Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.	USA	$475	Publicly Traded	M&P series (Shield, Bodyguard), SD9VE pistols; M&P15 rifles; Model 686 revolvers
17	Thales Group	France/Australia	$450	Publicly Traded	F90 (EF88) Austeyr rifle, ACAR rifle series (via Lithgow Arms)
18	Israel Weapon Industries (IWI)	Israel	$400	Private (SK Group)	Tavor, Galil ACE, Carmel, Arad rifles; Negev LMG; Jericho, Masada pistols; Uzi SMG
19	Taurus Armas S.A.	Brazil	$310	Publicly Traded	G2c, G3, TX22 pistols; Judge, 856 revolvers; T4 rifle (AR-15 platform)
20	Hanwha Group	South Korea	$300	Publicly Traded	K9 Thunder SPH (main armament not small arms, but produces related components and ammunition)
21	Leonardo S.p.A.	Italy	$280	Publicly Traded (State-influenced)	Production of components for Beretta ARX160, Oto Melara naval cannons (not small arms)
22	Dasan Machineries	South Korea	$245	Publicly Traded	DSAR-15 (AR-15), DAK-47 (AKM) rifles; various OEM firearm components
23	Sarsılmaz Silah Sanayi A.Ş.	Turkey	$220	Private	SAR9 pistol series, SAR 56 assault rifle, KILINÇ 2000 pistol
24	IMBEL	Brazil	$200	State-Owned	IA2 assault rifle, M973 pistol (1911 variant), FAL rifle (legacy production)
25	Vista Outdoor Inc.	USA	$180	Publicly Traded	Savage Arms rifles (Axis, 110), Stevens shotguns; Federal, CCI, Speer ammunition
26	Saab AB	Sweden	$170	Publicly Traded	AT4 anti-tank weapon, Carl-Gustaf recoilless rifle (light weapons, not small arms)
27	Remington Arms (RemArms)	USA	$160	Private	Model 870 shotgun, Model 700 rifle
28	O.F. Mossberg & Sons	USA	$150	Private	500/590 series shotguns, Patriot rifles, MC2c pistols
29	Caracal International	UAE	$140	State-Owned (EDGE Group)	CAR 816 rifle, Caracal F pistol, CMP 9 SMG
30	Poongsan Corporation	South Korea	$130	Publicly Traded	Extensive range of small-caliber ammunition (5.56mm, 7.62mm, 9mm)
31	Zastava Arms	Serbia	$120	State-Owned	ZPAP M70 rifle (AK variant), M57A pistol, M84 machine gun
32	STEYR ARMS GmbH	Austria	$110	Private	Steyr AUG bullpup rifle, A2 MF pistol, SSG 08 sniper rifle
33	Daniel Defense	USA	$100	Private	DDM4 rifle series, DD5 series, DELTA 5 sniper rifle
34	Barrett Firearms (NIOA Group)	USA/Australia	$90	Private	M82/M107.50 BMG rifle, MRAD sniper rifle, REC7 rifle
35	Springfield Armory, Inc.	USA	$85	Private	M1A rifle, Hellcat, XD series pistols, Saint AR-15 rifles
36	Fabryka Broni “Łucznik” – Radom	Poland	$80	State-Owned (PGZ)	MSBS Grot rifle, Beryl rifle, VIS 100 pistol
37	Arsenal JSCo	Bulgaria	$75	State-Owned	AR-M1 (AK variant), SLR series rifles, Shipka SMG
38	Kimber Manufacturing	USA	$70	Private	Custom 1911 pistols, Micro 9 pistols, K6s revolvers
39	HS Produkt	Croatia	$65	Private	HS2000 / Springfield XD pistol series, VHS-2 bullpup rifle
40	Česká zbrojovka a.s. (CZ)	Czech Republic	$60	(Subsidiary of Colt CZ Group)	P-10, P-09, Shadow 2 pistols; 457 series rimfire rifles
41	Cugir Arms Factory	Romania	$55	State-Owned	WASR-10 (AK variant), PSL sniper rifle, Pistol Mitralieră model 1963/1965
42	TİSAŞ	Turkey	$50	Private	Zigana, ZIG 14 (1911 variant) pistols
43	Norinco International Cooperation Ltd.	China	$45	Publicly Traded (Norinco subsidiary)	Export-focused small arms; Type 81, Type 84S rifles
44	Schmeisser GmbH	Germany	$40	Private	AR-15 platform rifles (various models), SLP-9 pistols
45	Israel Shipyards	Israel	$35	Publicly Traded	Produces naval weapon stations, not direct small arms
46	Adani Defence & Aerospace	India	$30	Publicly Traded	Tavor (under license), Galil sniper rifle (under license), small arms ammunition
47	Denel Land Systems	South Africa	$25	State-Owned	R4 assault rifle, SS-77 machine gun, NTW-20 anti-materiel rifle
48	Canik	Turkey	$20	Private (Samsun Yurt Savunma)	TP9, METE series pistols
49	Angstadt Arms	USA	$15	Private	UDP-9 Pistol Caliber Carbine, SCW-9 Submachine Gun
50	Kahr Arms	USA	$12	Private	PM9, CW9, CM9 series of compact pistols

Section 4: Analysis of the Tiers of Production

The global small arms market is not a monolithic entity. The companies that comprise the top 50 can be segmented into distinct strategic tiers based on their corporate structure, market focus, and role within the broader defense-industrial complex. Understanding these tiers provides a more nuanced view of the competitive landscape.

4.1 Tier 1: The Diversified Defense Titans

This tier consists of massive, often state-owned or state-influenced, defense conglomerates for whom small arms are a relatively small but essential part of a comprehensive land warfare portfolio. This group includes entities like Russia’s Rostec (parent of Kalashnikov Concern), China’s NORINCO, and Western giants such as General Dynamics, Rheinmetall AG, and BAE Systems. For these firms, small arms and ammunition production is strategically integrated with their primary business lines of armored vehicles, artillery systems, and defense electronics. Their revenue is driven by large-scale, long-term government contracts to equip national armies.

The recent surge in global defense spending has disproportionately benefited the ammunition divisions of these companies. For example, Rheinmetall’s Weapon and Ammunition division saw its sales soar by 58% in 2024 to €2.78 billion, driven almost entirely by massive orders for artillery shells and other munitions to replenish stocks depleted by aid to Ukraine.¹³ Similarly, BAE Systems’ Platforms & Services sector, which includes its Radway Green ammunition plant, reported sales of £4.4 billion.¹⁴ This intense focus on high-demand munitions represents a significant profit center but also a potential strategic diversion. The urgent need to ramp up ammunition production requires immense capital investment and manufacturing floor space, potentially drawing resources away from long-term research and development in next-generation small arms platforms. This dynamic could create a competitive opening for more specialized firms to innovate and capture market share in the small arms segment while the titans are focused on meeting the exigent demand for munitions.

4.2 Tier 2: The Specialized Firearms Leaders

The second tier is composed of large, often publicly traded or family-owned private companies whose core business is the design, manufacture, and sale of firearms. This group includes iconic names like Italy’s Beretta Holding, Belgium’s FN Browning Group, the Czech-American Colt CZ Group, and the American firms Smith & Wesson and Sturm, Ruger & Co. These companies are masters of a complex balancing act, navigating the profitable but highly volatile civilian consumer market—particularly in the United States—while also competing for stable, long-term military and law enforcement contracts globally.

Their financial performance is a direct reflection of these dual markets. For its 2025 fiscal year, Smith & Wesson reported revenues of $474.7 million, while Sturm, Ruger & Co. posted $535.6 million for its 2024 fiscal year, with both figures heavily influenced by the North American civilian market.¹⁵ In contrast, European firms with a stronger military footing reported higher revenues; the FN Browning Group achieved a turnover of €934 million (approximately $1.0 billion) in 2024, and the Colt CZ Group reported revenues of CZK 22.4 billion (approximately $960 million).¹⁷ This tier is also seeing a trend of consolidation, exemplified by the acquisition of the historic American brand Colt by the Czech firm Česká zbrojovka Group (CZG), a move designed to achieve greater economies of scale and enhance access to the lucrative U.S. military and civilian markets.¹⁹

4.3 Tier 3: The Private Powerhouses and State Champions

This tier includes highly influential companies that operate outside the direct pressures of public stock markets. They are either privately held, like Austria’s Glock Ges.m.b.H., or function as national champions for their respective governments, such as Turkey’s Sarsılmaz and Brazil’s IMBEL. Their ownership structure allows for long-term strategic planning and sustained investment without the need to meet quarterly earnings expectations.

Glock is a prime example of a private powerhouse, having achieved near-total dominance in the global handgun market through its focus on reliability, simplicity, and effective marketing. While private, its 2023 revenue was reported at a substantial €615.7 million.²⁰ State champions like Sarsılmaz serve a dual purpose: equipping their nation’s armed forces and police while also acting as an instrument of industrial policy and foreign influence through exports. Sarsılmaz is Turkey’s largest small arms manufacturer, a key supplier to the Turkish military, and exports to 78 countries.²¹ Similarly, IMBEL is a critical state-owned asset for Brazil, ensuring a domestic supply of military rifles like the IA2.²²

4.4 Tier 4: The Ascendant Exporters

The fourth tier is composed of highly innovative, export-oriented firms from nations that have cultivated advanced domestic defense industries, notably Israel, South Korea, and Turkey. These companies compete on the global stage by offering technologically sophisticated and, crucially, battle-proven weapon systems.

Israel’s industry, represented by firms like Israel Weapon Industries (IWI) and Elbit Systems, leverages the extensive operational experience of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) as a key selling point for products like the Tavor and Galil ACE rifles.²⁴ Elbit Systems, primarily a defense electronics giant, is also a major producer of small-caliber ammunition and advanced weapon sights, with total revenues of $6.8 billion in 2024.²⁵ South Korean firms are rapidly expanding their global presence. S&T Motiv, producer of the K-series of rifles and machine guns, reported 2024 revenues of KRW 968.9 billion (approximately $700 million), while Dasan Machineries, a key component supplier and rifle manufacturer, had revenues of KRW 337.6 billion (approximately $245 million).²⁷ These ascendant exporters are increasingly winning contracts in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, challenging the market dominance of traditional American and European suppliers.²⁹

Section 5: The Geographic Centers of Small Arms Manufacturing

The global production of small arms is not evenly distributed; rather, it is concentrated in distinct geographic centers, each with its own unique history, industrial base, and market orientation. These regional dynamics shape the types of weapons produced and the strategies companies employ to compete.

5.1 North America (Primarily USA)

The North American market, dominated by the United States, is unique in its scale and structure. It is home to both the world’s single largest military procurer and its largest and most active civilian firearms market.³⁰ This duality shapes the industry, supporting iconic brands focused on civilian sales like Smith & Wesson and Sturm, Ruger & Co., as well as the U.S.-based manufacturing arms of foreign firms like SIG SAUER and FN Herstal, which compete for both civilian and government contracts.¹² The market is heavily influenced by U.S. military procurement cycles, such as the landmark Next Generation Squad Weapon (NGSW) program, which drives industry-wide innovation in new calibers and technologies.¹¹

5.2 Europe (Germany, Italy, Belgium, Austria, etc.)

Europe is a hub of high-quality, precision firearms manufacturing with a deep heritage. Germany is home to Heckler & Koch, renowned for its military and law enforcement rifles and submachine guns. Italy hosts the Beretta Holding group, one of the oldest and largest firearms conglomerates in the world. Belgium is the headquarters of the FN Browning Group, a historic military supplier, while Austria is home to GLOCK, the dominant force in the global pistol market.¹⁹ These firms are characterized by their strong global brands and a balanced portfolio that serves military, law enforcement, and premium civilian markets worldwide.

5.3 Russia & China

The small arms industries in Russia and China are characterized by massive, state-owned enterprises designed primarily to equip their vast domestic armies and to advance national strategic interests through arms exports. Russia’s Kalashnikov Concern (part of the Rostec state corporation) and China’s NORINCO and CSGC operate on a scale unmatched by most private firms.³³ Their products, particularly the AK rifle family and its Chinese Type 56 derivatives, are the most widely proliferated small arms in history, valued for their ruggedness, reliability, and ease of mass production.³⁵ However, a significant challenge in analyzing these entities is the profound lack of financial transparency, which necessitates careful estimation based on available data.

5.4 The Middle East & Asia (Israel, Turkey, South Korea, etc.)

This diverse region represents the most dynamic and rapidly growing center of small arms innovation and export. A nation’s specific military doctrine and geopolitical environment often directly influence the types of weapons its industry excels at producing. For instance, Israel, facing decades of counter-terrorism and urban warfare, has produced world-class bullpup rifles like the IWI Tavor, which are optimized for close-quarters combat.²⁴ Turkey’s industry, represented by firms like Sarsılmaz, has become a major supplier to NATO allies, producing reliable and cost-effective pistols and rifles.²¹ South Korea, facing a heavily armed conventional threat, has developed a robust domestic industry with firms like S&T Motiv and Dasan Machineries that are now aggressively and successfully competing for international export contracts.²⁹

Section 6: Strategic Outlook and Future Trajectories

The global small arms industry is at an inflection point, shaped by geopolitical realignment, technological disruption, and evolving market structures. Several key trends will define the competitive landscape in the coming years.

• Industry Consolidation: The market for legacy firearms brands is maturing, leading to a clear trend of consolidation. The acquisition of Colt by the CZ Group is a prime example, uniting two historic brands to achieve greater economies of scale, combine engineering expertise, and expand global market access, particularly in North America.¹⁹ This trend is likely to continue as smaller, historic brands struggle to compete with larger, more diversified firms.
• The Ammunition Bottleneck: The war in Ukraine has exposed a critical shortfall in Western ammunition production capacity, not only for artillery but also for small-caliber rounds.¹ This has created a massive, multi-year demand cycle for ammunition. Companies with significant ammunition manufacturing capabilities—such as Rheinmetall, Beretta (through its acquisition of Ammotec), and Elbit Systems—are poised for sustained revenue growth and will be the focus of significant government investment to expand capacity.¹³
• The Dawn of Next-Generation Platforms: The U.S. Army’s selection of SIG Sauer’s platform for the NGSW program marks a pivotal shift in infantry weapon technology. The adoption of an intermediate, high-pressure caliber (6.8mm) and an advanced, integrated fire-control optic signals the future of small arms.¹¹ This move will compel other NATO nations and global competitors to accelerate their own development of next-generation rifles and machine guns capable of defeating advanced body armor at extended ranges.
• Supply Chain Resilience and “Smart” Systems: The disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing geopolitical friction have forced a strategic re-evaluation of globalized supply chains.¹¹ A greater emphasis will be placed on domestic manufacturing and securing reliable sources of raw materials. Concurrently, the integration of advanced electronics, as seen in the NGSW’s fire control unit, is transforming the firearm from a purely mechanical device into a complex weapon system. This evolution will fundamentally alter the competitive landscape. Success will increasingly depend not just on metallurgy and ergonomics, but on software development, sensor integration, and data processing. This technological shift may create opportunities for non-traditional defense companies, particularly those specializing in electronics and software, to enter the small arms market as key technology partners, potentially disrupting the established industry hierarchy.

Appendix: Methodology for Estimating Small Arms Revenue (ESAR)

The ranking and financial figures presented in this report are based on the Estimated 2024 Small Arms Revenue (ESAR) methodology. This proprietary model was developed to create a standardized and objective basis for comparison across a diverse industry that includes publicly traded corporations, state-owned enterprises, and privately held companies with varying levels of financial transparency.

A.1. Principle of Objective Data Prioritization

The ESAR methodology is founded on a hierarchical approach to data quality. It prioritizes official, audited financial documents over all other sources to ensure the highest possible degree of accuracy and reliability.

A.2. Scope Definition

The methodology adheres strictly to the operational definition of “small arms” established in Section 2.1 of this report. Revenue estimates are confined to sales of pistols, revolvers, rifles, carbines, submachine guns, light machine guns, and their direct components and ammunition. Revenue from light weapons, heavy weapons, and other defense systems is excluded.

A.3. Data Collection & Triage Process

A multi-level data collection process is employed to source the most reliable financial information for each company:

• Level 1 Data (Direct Reporting): For publicly traded companies whose primary business is small arms (e.g., Smith & Wesson, Sturm, Ruger & Co.), the primary sources are their most recent annual reports (Form 10-K filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or equivalent international filings). These documents provide audited, consolidated revenue figures that can be used with high confidence.³⁸
• Level 2 Data (Segmented Reporting): For large, diversified defense conglomerates (e.g., General Dynamics, Rheinmetall AG), the process begins with their annual reports to identify the revenue of the specific business segment that houses small arms and ammunition production (e.g., “Combat Systems” or “Weapon and Ammunition”).¹³ This segmented revenue figure serves as the baseline for further disaggregation.
• Level 3 Data (Credible Estimates): For private companies (e.g., Glock, Beretta) and state-owned enterprises where detailed financial reports are not publicly available (e.g., Kalashnikov Concern), data is compiled from a range of credible open sources. These include major financial news outlets (e.g., Forbes), respected industry market intelligence reports, and official company press releases announcing financial results.¹⁷

A.4. The Revenue Disaggregation & Estimation Model

The core of the ESAR methodology is the disaggregation of broad revenue figures into small arms-specific estimates:

• For Level 2 Data: The reported revenue of a conglomerate’s relevant division is analyzed to estimate the percentage attributable to small arms. This is achieved by examining public information on major contracts, product line announcements, and the division’s overall market focus. For example, within General Dynamics’ Combat Systems segment ($9.0 billion in 2024), public announcements of major munitions production awards (over $1.2 billion) are used to build a model that allocates a portion of the remaining revenue to its small arms programs.⁴¹ All significant assumptions made during this process are based on the best available open-source intelligence.
• For Level 3 Data: In cases where no reliable revenue figure can be obtained, a bottom-up estimation is used as a cross-check. This involves using publicly available production data, such as the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) Annual Firearms Manufacturing and Export Report (AFMER), which details the number of firearms produced by type.¹² These unit numbers are multiplied by an estimated Average Selling Price (ASP) for the company’s product mix to generate a revenue baseline.

A.5. Standardization and Currency Conversion

All financial data is standardized to the 2024 fiscal year to ensure a true “like-for-like” comparison. Where a company’s fiscal year does not align with the calendar year, data from the most relevant reporting period is used. All revenues reported in local currencies are converted to U.S. Dollars using the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) average annual market exchange rate for 2024, a standard practice used by leading research institutions like the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) to ensure consistency.⁴⁴

A.6. Limitations

This report acknowledges the inherent limitations of this analysis. The global defense industry, particularly in the small arms sector, lacks universal financial reporting standards. The opacity of private firms and state-owned enterprises in non-Western nations necessitates the use of estimation. The ESAR is therefore presented as a robust, analytically sound estimate designed for strategic comparison and market analysis, not as a precise figure auditable to accounting standards.

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