Analytics and Reports, Country Analytics

SITREP Cuba – Week Ending February 06, 2026

Executive Summary

The reporting period ending February 06, 2026, marks what is arguably the most critical juncture for the Cuban state since the cessation of Soviet subsidies in the early 1990s. The island is currently navigating a convergence of systemic collapses: the total termination of the Venezuelan oil lifeline following the January 03, 2026, capture of President Nicolás Maduro; the implementation of a sophisticated United States economic blockade via Executive Order 14380; and a terminal failure of the domestic energy grid.1 The situation has transitioned from a chronic economic crisis into an acute humanitarian emergency that threatens the fundamental stability of the Revolutionary government.

As of the current week, fuel reserves are estimated to last no more than 15 to 20 days, with the Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant and other key infrastructure components operating at near-zero capacity due to a lack of liquid fuel and years of deferred maintenance.5 The eastern provinces have been plunged into near-total darkness, with rural areas reporting up to 20 hours of daily outages.7 In response, the Cuban government has declared a state of emergency, mandating a four-day work week for the public sector, reducing school hours, and suspending all non-essential activities to prioritize what little fuel remains for “vital services” and foreign currency generation.1

Politically, the administration of President Miguel Díaz-Canel appears increasingly isolated. His televised address on February 05, 2026, signaled a desperate, albeit conditional, willingness to engage in dialogue with the Trump administration—a significant rhetorical shift that reflects the severity of the regime’s vulnerability.8 However, Washington has signaled that it views the current crisis as a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” for regime change, backed by a significant naval presence in the Caribbean and the threat of secondary tariffs on any nation attempting to provide an energy lifeline to Havana.11

The internal security environment is characterized by growing social unrest and a hyper-vigilant military response. The Conference of Catholic Bishops of Cuba has warned of a risk of “social chaos and violence,” while the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR) have commenced their “Year of Defense Preparation” to deter perceived threats of external intervention.6 Migration continues to serve as the primary pressure valve, with more than 10 percent of the population having fled since 2022, though United States Coast Guard interdictions under Operation Vigilant Sentry remain at high levels to prevent a mass maritime exodus.15

Strategic Geopolitical Shift: The Venezuelan Collapse

The foundational security architecture of the Cuban state was irrevocably altered on January 03, 2026, when United States special forces conducted “Operation Absolute Resolve” in Caracas, resulting in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.11 For Havana, the implications of this operation are existential. Venezuela has served as Cuba’s primary strategic depth, providing subsidized oil in exchange for intelligence, security, and medical personnel for over two decades. The sudden removal of the Maduro administration and the subsequent U.S. control over Venezuelan oil assets have not only cut off Cuba’s fuel supply but have also eliminated its primary source of hard currency, as Havana frequently resold portions of its Venezuelan oil imports on the global market.11

The Human and Intelligence Cost of the Raid

The fallout from the Caracas raid extends beyond economics. Cuban officials have confirmed that 32 “combatants” or security personnel were killed during the U.S. operation to capture Maduro.4 This loss represents a major blow to the prestige of the Cuban military and intelligence services, which had long prided themselves on their ability to protect the Venezuelan leadership. Analysts suggest that the failure to detect or prevent the U.S. raid has led to significant internal scrutiny within the Ministry of the Interior (MININT) and the Directorate of Intelligence (DI), as the regime assesses how its extensive surveillance network in Venezuela was compromised.18

Metric of Venezuelan Relationship ShiftPre-January 2026 StatusCurrent Status (Feb 06, 2026)
Daily Oil Shipments~50,000 – 80,000 barrels 5Zero reported shipments 9
Security PresenceExtensive advisory/protective roles32 confirmed KIA; active withdrawal 4
Economic Integration“Oil-for-Doctors” primary trade modelTerminal breakdown of bilateral trade 1
Diplomatic AlignmentUnified regional “Bolivarian” blocHavana isolated; Caracas under U.S. control 11

The psychological impact on the Cuban leadership cannot be overstated. By successfully capturing a head of state within the Cuban security perimeter, the U.S. has demonstrated a level of operational capability and political will that directly threatens the survival of the Díaz-Canel administration. The subsequent proclamation by the U.S. President that “Cuba is a failed nation” and “ready to fall” has further exacerbated these fears, leading to the current posture of “active defense” and the search for new international patrons.13

The U.S. “Maximum Pressure” Framework: Executive Order 14380

On January 29, 2026, the United States escalated its policy of containment to a strategy of active strangulation by issuing Executive Order 14380, “Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba”.3 This order invokes the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to declare a national emergency, based on the finding that Cuba’s alignment with hostile foreign powers (Russia, China, Iran) and its alleged hosting of terrorist organizations (Hamas, Hezbollah) constitute an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security.3

The Secondary Tariff Mechanism

The core of EO 14380 is a novel and aggressive use of trade policy to enforce a naval-style blockade without the legal and military complications of a formal maritime quarantine. The order authorizes the imposition of ad valorem duties on any goods imported into the United States from third countries that directly or indirectly supply oil to Cuba.3

  1. Scope of Tariffs: Unlike traditional sanctions that target specific entities, these tariffs apply to a country’s entire export portfolio to the U.S., forcing major trading partners like Mexico and Brazil to choose between the Cuban market and access to the American economy.3
  2. Implementation Authority: The Secretary of Commerce is tasked with identifying oil suppliers, while the Secretary of State provides recommendations on the level of tariffs to be applied.23
  3. Deterrence Effect: The threat of a 30% tariff on Mexican exports, for example, has already caused a halt in vital shipments from President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration, which had previously served as Cuba’s last remaining “lifeline”.8

This “economic siege” is designed to achieve regime change by inducing a total collapse of the Cuban energy grid and food distribution system. By targeting the energy supply, the U.S. is effectively paralyzing every sector of the Cuban economy, from transportation and hospitals to the military’s own logistical capabilities.5

Internal Economic Collapse and Infrastructure Degradation

The Cuban economy is currently in its most precarious state since the 1959 Revolution. Estimates indicate the GDP fell by 11% between 2019 and 2024, followed by a further 5% decline through September 2025.5 Hyper-inflation has completely eroded the purchasing power of the Cuban peso (CUP), and the failure of the “partial dollarization” attempt in December 2025 has left the state without a viable currency strategy.1

The Terminal Grid: Energy and Power

The island’s electrical system is in a state of cascading failure. The grid depends on eight aging thermoelectric plants that are frequently offline due to mechanical failure and a lack of the high-quality fuel they require.7 The Antonio Guiteras plant, located in Santa Cruz del Norte, remains the system’s most critical and fragile node.7

Current energy metrics for the week ending February 06, 2026:

  • Generation Capacity: Operating at less than 40% of national demand.27
  • Regional Impact: The eastern region (Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Guantánamo, Holguín) is largely offline; Havana experiences daily outages of 12 hours or more.7
  • Fuel Reserves: Independent analysts estimate that the island has approximately 14 to 20 days of fuel remaining if no new tankers arrive.5
  • Emergency Measures: Transition to a four-day work week (Monday-Thursday); closure of tourist establishments; 50% reduction in inter-provincial transport.1

The human cost of this collapse is evident in Santa Cruz del Norte, where residents, despite living in the shadow of the nation’s largest power plant, are forced to cook with charcoal and firewood.7 The smell of sulfur and the sight of uncollected garbage characterize urban environments where sanitation trucks have no fuel to operate.4

Agricultural and Food Security Crisis

The energy crisis has direct second-order effects on food security. Agriculture is paralyzed by a lack of diesel for tractors and transport, while the failure of refrigeration systems has led to the loss of existing food stocks.4 The UN warns that the country risks a “humanitarian collapse” as hospitals lose the ability to maintain cold chains for medicines and food rations become increasingly scarce.15

SectorImpact of Energy Crisis (Feb 2026)Long-term Implication
HealthHospitals relying on unreliable generators; critical shortage of medicines 1Increased mortality rates; collapse of public health indicators
Transport50% reduction in bus/train services; gas lines lasting days 1Total paralysis of labor mobility and supply chains
TourismMajor hotel closures; travel warnings from Canada/UK 1Permanent loss of the state’s primary hard currency source
EducationReduced hours; transition to virtual (hampered by poor internet) 1Erosion of human capital and long-term economic competitiveness

The Political Landscape: Leadership and Dissent

The Cuban leadership is facing a “Battle of Ideas” that it is no longer winning on the streets. President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s address on February 05 was an attempt to regain the initiative by framing the national struggle as a defense of “sovereignty” against “imperialist aggression”.8 However, the shift from his usual social media presence to a two-hour televised “YouTube address” suggests a need to reach a broader, more desperate audience.8

The Diaz-Canel Address (February 05, 2026)

The address was notable for its defensive and conciliatory undertones. While Díaz-Canel warned that the country is “not in a state of war – but we are getting ready if need be,” he repeatedly stressed his openness to “sincere and effective dialogue” with the United States “without pressure”.8 Analysts suggest this is a signal to both Washington and his own hardliners that the regime is looking for an exit strategy that preserves its core power structure while alleviating the economic siege.8

The opposition’s reaction, spearheaded by José Daniel Ferrer in exile and internal activists like Manuel Cuesta Morúa, has been to dismiss the speech as more of the same “Castroist rhetoric”.10 Ferrer, who met with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in November, has called for “no half measures,” insisting that any dialogue must be predicated on a transition to democracy, a general amnesty for political prisoners, and the legalization of civil society.10

The Catholic Church and Social Stability

Perhaps the most significant domestic political development of the week is the public warning from the Conference of Catholic Bishops of Cuba (COCC).6 On February 03, the bishops stated that the country risks descending into “social chaos and violence” if urgent structural changes are not made.6 This intervention by the Church is rare and carries weight, as it reflects the pulse of the “least fortunate” who are bearing the brunt of the crisis.6 The Vatican, through Pope Leo XIV, has echoed these concerns, offering to mediate to “de-escalate hostilities” between the U.S. and Cuba.6

Security Apparatus and Internal Control: Assessment of MININT and FAR

The regime’s survival remains contingent on the loyalty and effectiveness of its security forces. The Ministry of the Interior (MININT) and the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR) currently maintain effective control, but the strain of the economic collapse is beginning to impact their operational readiness and social cohesion.28

The “Year of Defense Preparation”

On January 12, 2026, the FAR Western, Central, and Eastern Armies officially began their “Year of Defense Preparation”.14 These drills are designed to:

  • Operationalize the “War of All the People” Doctrine: Training civilian-military units for decentralized resistance against a perceived U.S. invasion.14
  • Bolster Morale: Ceremonies led by figures like Divisional General Eugenio Armando Rabilero Aguilera are intended to reinforce ideological loyalty among young combatants.14
  • Deterrence: Publicizing these activities is a form of signaling to Washington that any attempt at “regime change” via military force would be costly.14

However, the military’s dominance over the economy—specifically through the GAESA conglomerate—is also its greatest liability. The “How the military came to dominate Cuba’s tourism — and bankrupted the country” narrative is gaining traction among the populace, who see the elite as having “$18 billion in offshore accounts” while they cook with coal.10

Civil Unrest and Dissent Suppression

While the security environment is described as “generally stable,” there are frequent reports of small-scale demonstrations, hunger strikes, and spontaneous protests in rural towns.28 The US embassy has warned of a “spike in government-sponsored protests” directed at Washington, used by the regime to channel popular anger away from its own failures.37

Security IndicatorStatus (Week Ending Feb 06, 2026)Risk Assessment
Violent CrimeOn the rise in Havana and Santiago 28High: Deteriorating citizen security
Arbitrary ArrestsUsed as routine method of control 28Constant: Suppression of dissent
Police ResponseInadequate due to fuel/resource shortages 28Increasing: Potential for lawlessness
SurveillanceHigh; plainclothes officers in all provinces 28Persistent: Strong state control

The January 16, 2026, protest outside the U.S. embassy in Havana, involving thousands of citizens, underscores the volatile nature of the current landscape. While framed by the government as an anti-blockade rally, reports suggest the crowd included many demanding improved living conditions and greater political freedom.38

International Lifelines: Russia, China, and Mexico

With Venezuela removed as a viable partner, Cuba is desperately seeking a “replacement patron.”

Russia and the “Dark Fleet”

Russian Ambassador Viktor Coronelli vowed on February 05 that Moscow will “keep oil flowing”.2 However, the logistics of this pledge are complicated by the presence of the U.S. Carrier Strike Group led by the USS Gerald R. Ford in the Caribbean.39 While Russia has extensive experience with “dark fleet” operations to bypass sanctions, the risk of a direct maritime confrontation with the U.S. Navy in the Florida Straits may limit the volume of aid Moscow is willing to provide.15

The Mexico Dilemma

Mexico has emerged as the most critical diplomatic battleground. President Claudia Sheinbaum is under intense pressure from the Trump administration to halt all oil shipments.8 While she has publicly warned of a “humanitarian crisis” if Cuba is cut off, she also admitted, “We don’t want to put our country at risk in terms of tariffs”.9 Reports indicate that Mexico is “quietly searching” for a way to send fuel without triggering U.S. retaliation, but for the current week, shipments have significantly slowed.20

China: Technical and Intelligence Support

China’s role remains focused on the “Battle of Ideas” and digital infrastructure. While Beijing provides support for Cuba’s “Digital Transformation Policy” and Artificial Intelligence development, it has not yet signaled a willingness to provide the massive, subsidized energy shipments required to stabilize the island.22 China’s primary interest in Cuba remains its intelligence-gathering value, specifically the SIGINT facilities that “directly threaten the national security of the United States”.3

Humanitarian Outlook and Migration Dynamics

The UN’s warning of a potential “collapse” is backed by the reality on the ground. The combined impact of Hurricane Melissa in late 2025 and the current energy blockade has left over 2.2 million people in need of urgent assistance.4

The largest exodus in Cuban history is currently underway. Over 1 million people—roughly 10% of the population—have fled since 2022.15 This “brain drain” is hollowed out the human capital required for any future economic recovery.

Maritime Security: Operation Vigilant Sentry

The United States Coast Guard (USCG) has increased its presence in the Florida Straits to interdict what it terms “unlawful maritime migration”.17

Interdiction DatePersonnel CountVessel Type
Feb 03, 202616 migrants25-foot makeshift vessel 43
Jan 21, 202612 migrants“Alien raft” 17
Dec 15, 2024 (Ref)43 migrantsTwo makeshift vessels 44

The USCG emphasizes that makeshift vessels are “unworthy and unsafe,” especially given the rapid weather changes in the Florida Straits.17 However, as the energy crisis deepens, the pressure for a mass migration event—similar to the 1980 Mariel Boatlift or the 1994 Rafter Crisis—is reaching a breaking point.

Information Warfare and Cyber Activity

The Cuban regime is increasingly utilizing Artificial Intelligence (AI) and cyber tools to maintain control and push its narrative.42

  1. AI for State Security: The May 2024 “Strategy for the Development of Artificial Intelligence” is being used to monitor and analyze large volumes of information to detect leaks and dissent.42
  2. Propaganda Narratives: State media is heavily pushing the “genocidal policy” narrative, aiming to blame 100% of domestic failures on the U.S. blockade.15
  3. External Cyber Threats: A vast cyberespionage operation based in Asia (Diaoyu/Unit 42) has been detected targeting dozens of governments, including institutions in the Caribbean.47 Furthermore, APT28 has been observed conducting phishing campaigns targeting defense ministries, which could impact Cuban regional defense communications.48

Conclusion and Strategic Outlook

The week ending February 06, 2026, reveals a Cuban state in its most vulnerable position in modern history. The termination of Venezuelan support and the implementation of the U.S. tariff-based blockade have created a terminal crisis for the island’s energy-dependent economy.

Key Forecasts for the Next 30 Days

  • Grid Stability: Without an immediate and massive infusion of fuel, the national electrical grid faces a high probability of a total, permanent failure. This would effectively terminate all modern economic activity on the island and lead to a critical breakdown in public health and sanitation.5
  • Negotiation Under Duress: President Díaz-Canel’s address signals that the regime is looking for a deal. The Trump administration’s claim that they are “talking to the people from Cuba, the highest people” suggests that back-channel negotiations are focused on a potential transition or significant structural reform in exchange for energy relief.8
  • Social Explosion: The Catholic Church’s warning of “social chaos” is a leading indicator. The combination of blackouts, food scarcity, and a perceived lack of future prospects makes a large-scale, spontaneous uprising increasingly likely, despite the high level of state repression.6
  • Naval Posture: The U.S. Navy’s USS Gerald R. Ford faces a maintenance deadline in early 2026. This creates a finite “window of maximum pressure” for the U.S. to force a change in Havana before its primary maritime enforcement asset must return to port.39

The Republic of Cuba enters the second week of February 2026 on the brink of total collapse. The resilience of the population is being tested to its absolute limit, and the regime’s “Battle of Ideas” is increasingly being replaced by a struggle for basic survival.

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