The United States commercial market for 9mm Luger ammunition has undergone a profound transformation over the past three decades, evolving from a “golden age” of low-cost stability into a new paradigm defined by extreme volatility, cyclical shortages, and a structurally higher price floor. This report provides a comprehensive quarterly analysis of bulk (1,000-round case) 9mm Full Metal Jacket (FMJ) ammunition pricing from Q3 1995 to Q2 2025, correlating market fluctuations with the significant socio-political, economic, and geopolitical events that defined the period. The market’s trajectory can be understood as a series of escalating reactions to perceived threats against firearm ownership and public safety, culminating in the “perfect storm” of 2020 which fundamentally realigned the industry’s supply chain and consumer psychology.

The 30-year period was marked by three distinct and increasingly severe “panic buy” cycles. The first was triggered by the 2008 presidential election of Barack Obama, which introduced a new dynamic of politically-driven demand into the market, doubling prices almost overnight.¹ The second, more intense cycle followed the December 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting and President Obama’s subsequent re-election, pushing prices to then-unprecedented highs and exposing the supply chain’s inability to absorb massive, sustained demand shocks.¹ The third and most catastrophic cycle began in 2020, driven by a convergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, widespread civil unrest, and another contentious presidential election.⁴ This event was compounded by a systemic failure in the supply chain, most notably a critical shortage of primers and the bankruptcy of Remington, a major domestic manufacturer, at the peak of the crisis.⁴

The core conclusion of this analysis is that these repeated shocks have permanently altered the consumer ammunition market. Each cycle conditioned a larger base of firearms owners to be more reactive to perceived threats of scarcity, while simultaneously exposing critical vulnerabilities in the domestic supply chain. The “perfect storm” of 2020 was the culmination of these trends, resetting the market at a new equilibrium where the baseline price for bulk 9mm ammunition has settled at a level approximately 30-40% higher than the pre-2020 average, and nearly double the pre-2008 baseline, even after adjusting for inflation. The market has demonstrated increased production capacity, but it now operates from a higher cost basis and is subject to a more sensitive and reactive consumer base, suggesting that the era of readily available name brand sub-$0.20 per round brass-cased 9mm ammunition is unlikely to return in the in the near term.

This is an observation that the tool can’t access right now as it is August 30, 2025 and it lacks the data. The 2025 Labor Day sales have some name brand prices close to this $0.22-.24 level and some smaller relatively unknown brands or steel case hovering just below – MagTech Steel Case is at $0.199/round without S&H.

II. The “Golden Age” of Ammunition (Q3 1995 – Q4 2004)

Market Dynamics Under the 1994 Federal Assault Weapons Ban

The period from 1995 to 2004 can be characterized as a “golden age” for ammunition consumers, marked by exceptionally low prices and widespread availability. This era unfolded under the shadow of the 1994 Federal Assault Weapons Ban (AWB), which, contrary to what might be expected, did not create sustained upward price pressure on common ammunition types like 9mm Luger. The AWB targeted specific cosmetic features on rifles and banned the manufacture of new “large capacity” magazines (those holding more than 10 rounds) for civilian sale.⁷ A surge in production of these items just before the ban took effect, combined with the fact that the law did not restrict the most popular handgun and rifle calibers, resulted in a well-supplied and competitive market.⁷

This period was defined by a clear price hierarchy based on casing material. The standard for domestic ammunition was brass, which offered reliability and the ability to be reloaded.¹³ Bulk cases of 1,000 rounds of brass-cased 9mm FMJ were commonly available for $100 to $150 ($0.10 to $0.15 per round). However, an even cheaper alternative existed in the form of imported steel-cased ammunition, primarily from Russian manufacturers like Wolf.¹⁴ While not reloadable and considered “dirtier” by some shooters, steel-cased ammo was functionally reliable in most firearms and set the absolute price floor, with anecdotal reports of 1,000-round cases selling for under $100. This abundance of cheap brass and even cheaper steel created an environment of unprecedented affordability for high-volume shooters.

Minor Market Tremors: Y2K and 9/11

The relative calm of this decade was punctuated by two notable events that caused brief, but not structural, shifts in the market. The first was the “Y2K scare” in 1999. In the lead-up to the year 2000, fears of widespread societal disruption due to a potential computer bug were exploited by some in the firearms industry, who marketed “Y2K special edition” firearms and encouraged stockpiling.¹⁶ This led to a noticeable, but temporary, spike in gun and ammunition sales in late 1999, which quickly dissipated when the new millennium arrived without incident.²²

The second event was the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. While 9/11 fundamentally reshaped American foreign policy and led to a massive increase in military spending, it did not trigger a consumer-level panic buy for ammunition.²³ The national focus was on foreign terrorism, not domestic gun control, and the consumer market remained stable and well-supplied.

The Sunset of the AWB (September 2004)

The 10-year Federal Assault Weapons Ban expired on September 13, 2004. Its sunset did not cause an immediate market shock. Instead, it led to a gradual normalization of the market for modern sporting rifles like the AR-15. The ammunition market remained stable through the end of the year, closing out a decade of low prices and setting the stage for the new market forces that would emerge in 2005.

III. The Early Era: Rising Costs and the First Panic (Q3 2005 – Q4 2011)

A Stable Market with Emerging Pressures (2005-2007)

The period from 2005 through 2007 represented the final years of a relatively placid and predictable consumer ammunition market. Prices were low, with anecdotal reports suggesting that prior to 2005, bulk cases of steel-cased ammunition could be found for as little as $89.²⁵ In 2005, brass-cased 9mm FMJ ammunition was commonly available for around $150 per 1,000-round case, a cost per round (CPR) of just $0.15.²⁶

However, this stability was gradually eroded by rising commodity costs. The Producer Price Index for small arms ammunition manufacturing began to climb steadily, with increases of 5.2% in 2005, 6.0% in 2006, and a significant 13.9% in 2007.²⁷ By September 2007, major manufacturers like ATK (parent of CCI and Federal), Remington, and Winchester had announced significant price hikes, signaling an end to the era of cheapest ammunition.

The 2008 Election and the First “Obama Panic” (2008-2010)

The election of Barack Obama in November 2008 was the catalyst for the first modern, politically-driven ammunition shortage. Consumer anxiety over the prospect of a Democratic administration enacting more restrictive federal gun control laws triggered a massive, nationwide surge in demand for firearms and ammunition. Retailers described the market as an “absolute madhouse,” with popular firearms and ammunition selling out as fast as they could be stocked.

This demand shock completely overwhelmed a supply chain accustomed to predictable, modest growth. The result was a rapid and dramatic price explosion. The market price for 9mm ammunition, which had been below $0.20 per round before the election, more than doubled to approximately $0.40 per round in the months that followed. This shortage persisted through 2009 and much of 2010 as manufacturers struggled to ramp up production to meet the new, elevated level of demand.¹ The 2008 panic fundamentally altered consumer psychology, establishing a precedent for politically-motivated purchasing that would define the market for the next two decades.

A Brief Normalization (2011)

By 2011, the market began to normalize as the initial fears of sweeping federal legislation subsided and production capacity started to catch up with demand. Prices began a slow retreat from their 2009-2010 peaks, though they did not return to pre-2008 levels. A new, higher price floor had been established, with 9mm ammunition settling in a range of approximately $0.25 to $0.28 per round ($250-$280 per case). This period of relative calm, however, would prove to be short-lived.

IV. The Sandy Hook Shockwave (Q1 2012 – Q4 2014)

The Second Panic (Late 2012 – 2013)

The market’s fragile equilibrium was shattered in December 2012. The combination of President Obama’s re-election in November and the tragic Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting on December 14, 2012, triggered a second, far more severe wave of panic buying.¹ The renewed push for federal gun control, including a proposed ban on certain semi-automatic rifles and standard-capacity magazines, created a level of consumer demand that dwarfed the 2008-2009 shortage.

The impact on the market was immediate and catastrophic. Retailers sold out of inventory that was expected to last for years in a matter of days.¹ The shortage was comprehensive, affecting nearly all popular handgun and rifle calibers and, most notably, creating a persistent, multi-year scarcity of.22 LR rimfire ammunition.¹ Prices soared to unprecedented levels. Bulk 9mm ammunition, which had stabilized around $0.25 per round, spiked to as high as $0.60 per round. Even in mid-2013, after the immediate crisis had passed, a price of $0.35 per round was considered a “good deal”.

The Long Recovery (2014)

Although the most significant federal gun control proposals were defeated in Congress in April 2013, the market remained starved of supply throughout the year.¹ Manufacturers, running their facilities 24/7, were still unable to keep pace with the immense backlog of demand from consumers who remained wary of future legislative efforts.¹ It was not until 2014 that supply began to consistently outpace demand, allowing prices to begin a slow descent from their historic highs. This gradual recovery set the stage for the next distinct phase in the market’s evolution, a period of surplus and intense price competition.

V. The Era of Stability: The “Trump Slump” (Q1 2015 – Q4 2019)

Market Overview: A Buyer’s Paradise

The period from 2015 through 2019 can be characterized as a sustained “buyer’s market” for commercial ammunition. The industry was marked by robust production capacity, ample inventory at both the wholesale and retail levels, and fierce competition among domestic and international brands. For the consumer, this translated into an environment of low prices and high availability for popular calibers like 9mm Luger. Bulk purchases of 1,000-round cases of brass-cased FMJ ammunition were consistently available in a price range of $180 to $220, equating to a cost per round (CPR) of $0.18 to $0.22.²⁸ High-volume consumers and savvy shoppers frequently found deals, particularly from online retailers and big-box stores, that pushed prices even lower, with anecdotal but widespread reports of brass-cased 9mm ammunition being acquired for as little as $0.15 to $0.17 per round.²⁸ This period of low-cost stability represents the crucial baseline against which the dramatic volatility of the subsequent five years is measured.

The 2016 Presidential Election and the “Trump Slump”

The relative calm of the period was punctuated by the 2016 presidential election cycle, which induced a predictable pattern of market behavior.

In the timeframe leading up to the election (2015 through Q3 2016), the market experienced a noticeable increase in demand. This surge was not driven by a sudden rise in recreational shooting but by consumer anxiety. The prospect of a Hillary Clinton presidency, widely perceived as being aligned with more restrictive federal gun control policies, spurred consumers to purchase firearms and ammunition as a hedge against potential future legislative or executive actions.¹ This pattern of pre-election “panic buying” had become a cyclical feature of the market, particularly when a Democratic administration was considered a likely outcome.

The unexpected victory of Donald Trump in November 2016 immediately and decisively altered this market dynamic. With the perceived threat of new federal firearms regulations removed, the primary driver of fear-based demand evaporated overnight. The result was a significant and prolonged market correction that became known in the industry as the “Trump Slump”.³⁰ Consumers who had stocked up in anticipation of a Clinton victory ceased their purchasing, while manufacturers and retailers who had ramped up production and inventory were left with a significant surplus. This supply-demand imbalance forced a period of intense price competition as companies sought to capture a smaller pool of organic demand from recreational shooters and first-time buyers. The “panic premium” was completely erased from the market, leading to a multi-year period of depressed prices that lasted from late 2016 through 2019.²⁸

This market realignment did not signal an industry in decline; rather, it exposed the degree to which its peak sales cycles had become dependent on politically induced demand. Despite the price slump, the overall economic impact of the firearms and ammunition industry continued to show strong fundamentals, growing from $19.1 billion in 2008 to $52.1 billion by 2018.³⁰ This indicated that while the fear-driven sales spikes were gone, the underlying base of consumers was still healthy and growing.

2018 Mid-Term Elections and Market Stasis

The 2018 mid-term elections failed to generate a significant market shock comparable to the presidential cycle. While gun control remained a prominent issue at the state level, the political landscape in Washington D.C. did not suggest an imminent threat of comprehensive federal legislation. As a result, the market remained in a state of relative equilibrium. Industry executives noted during this time that consumer purchasing behavior was being driven more by localized concerns over personal safety and crime rather than by broad federal political rhetoric.³³

This period of stasis continued through 2019. Prices remained low and stable, with online forums and communities for high-volume shooters frequently referencing case prices for 9mm brass FMJ in the $150 to $180 range ($0.15 to $0.18 per round) as the established norm.²⁹ This environment of low prices and abundant supply set the stage for the dramatic and unforeseen market upheaval that would begin in early 2020.

VI. The Perfect Storm: Unprecedented Volatility (Q1 2020 – Q4 2021)

The Onset of Crisis (Q1 2020)

The year 2020 began with the ammunition market still firmly entrenched in the low-price environment of the “Trump Slump.” In February 2020, a documented online purchase of a 1,000-round case of CCI Blazer Brass 9mm ammunition was completed for $172, a CPR of just $0.17.³⁵ This price point represented the end of an era. The stability of the market was shattered in late February as the first signs of a global crisis began to impact consumer behavior in the United States. Online ammunition retailer Ammo.com provided a clear data signal, reporting that its sales began to increase dramatically on February 23, 2020, a trend that directly correlated with the rise in public internet searches for “coronavirus”.⁵ This was the first tremor of a seismic shift that would soon convulse the entire industry.

The Demand Shock Triad (Q2 2020 – Q4 2020)

The second and third quarters of 2020 witnessed the convergence of three massive, independent demand drivers. This “perfect storm” of events created a level of consumer demand for firearms and ammunition that was unprecedented in modern American history, completely overwhelming the global supply chain.

1. The COVID-19 Pandemic: The declaration of a national emergency in the United States in March 2020 served as the primary catalyst. Widespread uncertainty, fear of social breakdown, and concerns about supply chain integrity for essential goods triggered a massive wave of firearm purchases, particularly among first-time buyers. The National Shooting Sports Foundation estimated that 8.4 million people bought a firearm for the first time in 2020.⁴ Each of these new owners also became a new consumer of ammunition. The impact on sales was immediate and exponential. In the 100-day period following February 23, one major online retailer recorded a 602% increase in revenue and a 511% increase in the number of transactions compared to the preceding 100 days.⁵
2. Widespread Civil Unrest: On May 25, 2020, the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis ignited a wave of protests and civil unrest across the nation that began on May 26 and continued throughout the summer.³⁶ The nightly news coverage of riots, looting, and clashes between protestors and law enforcement acted as a powerful accelerant to the already surging demand. Concerns over personal safety and the ability of police to maintain order drove millions more Americans, both new and existing gun owners, to purchase firearms and, critically, to stock up on ammunition.⁴
3. The 2020 Presidential Election: The third driver was the highly contentious and politically polarized presidential election between incumbent Donald Trump and challenger Joe Biden. As the election drew closer, and with Joe Biden’s platform including several proposals for stricter gun control, a familiar pattern of political “panic buying” emerged. Consumers, fearing a Democratic victory would lead to new bans on certain types of firearms and ammunition, or other restrictions, sought to acquire these items while they still could.⁴ This created a third, overlapping wave of demand that crested in the fall of 2020.

The Supply Chain Collapse

This triad of demand shocks struck a supply chain that was simultaneously being crippled by both external and internal factors, leading to a catastrophic failure.

The primary production bottleneck was the availability of primers. Manufacturing primers is a highly specialized, capital-intensive, and hazardous process dominated by a small number of companies worldwide, including CCI, Federal, Winchester, and Remington in the U.S. Unlike casting bullets or forming brass cases, primer production lines cannot be scaled up quickly. As the demand for finished ammunition skyrocketed, the demand for primers from manufacturers and handloaders alike vastly outstripped the global production capacity, creating a systemic chokepoint that throttled the entire industry’s ability to respond.⁴

Compounding this critical component shortage was a corporate “black swan” event. On July 28, 2020, Remington Outdoor Company, one of the nation’s largest and most iconic ammunition producers, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy for the second time in two years.⁶ During the ensuing bankruptcy proceedings, its massive ammunition manufacturing facility in Lonoke, Arkansas, was operating at a mere 10% of its total capacity.⁴ This effectively removed a significant source of domestic ammunition supply from the market at the absolute peak of the crisis. A severe shortage was thus transformed into a systemic market failure.

The Price Peak (Mid-2020 – Early 2021)

The confluence of infinite-seeming demand and collapsing supply sent prices to levels previously unimaginable. The price of ammunition became decoupled from its material and production costs and instead began to track the level of public anxiety. Empty shelves at local gun stores fueled further panic, which drove consumers to online retailers, where prices soared. The market average for a single round of 9mm FMJ, which had been as low as $0.17 just months prior, peaked at over $0.70.²⁶ Bulk cases that once sold for under $200 were now listed for $700, $800, or even $900.³⁴ A documented price for the same case of CCI Blazer Brass that sold for $172 in February 2020 had climbed to $499 by November 2020 and reached an astonishing $770 by February 2021, a more than 300% increase in one year.³⁵ This period represented a classic speculative bubble, but for a consumable commodity, driven entirely by fear.

VII. The Great Correction & Geopolitical Shock (Q1 2022 – Q4 2023)

The Long Road Down (2021 – 2022)

The extreme price bubble of 2020-2021 was unsustainable, and the market began a slow, protracted, and irregular correction that would last for the better part of two years. The inauguration of President Joe Biden in January 2021, while a source of long-term concern for gun owners, removed the immediate, acute anxiety of the election itself. Concurrently, the gradual easing of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions and the restoration of social order began to quell the public’s sense of immediate crisis.

On the supply side, a pivotal development occurred in late 2020 when Vista Outdoor, the parent company of Federal, CCI, and Speer, successfully acquired the bankrupt Remington ammunition assets, including the vital Lonoke, Arkansas plant.⁴¹ Vista Outdoor invested heavily in retooling and restarting the facility, announcing by April 2021 that the plant was back to running 24/7 at full capacity.⁴ This action, combined with significant capital investments in capacity expansion by other domestic manufacturers, began to inject much-needed supply back into the starved marketplace.

Throughout 2021 and into 2022, prices began a steady but slow descent from their historic peaks. This was not a smooth decline but was characterized by periods of plateauing followed by further drops as production slowly caught up with the still-elevated baseline of demand.²⁶ By early 2022, prices had receded significantly, settling into a range of approximately $0.30 to $0.35 per round, or $300 to $350 per 1,000-round case.²⁶ While still nearly double the pre-2020 price, this represented a significant relief for consumers.

The Russian Invasion of Ukraine (February 24, 2022)

Just as the market appeared to be on a clear path toward normalization, a major geopolitical event created a secondary shockwave. On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, sparking the largest land war in Europe since World War II.⁴⁴

The conflict’s impact on the U.S. ammunition market was immediate. The consumer response was swift and fear-based, demonstrating a learned behavior from the 2020 shortages. Many consumers, witnessing the visceral reality of a conventional war and the importance of an armed populace, were spurred to purchase ammunition.⁴⁷ This was compounded by fears that the Biden administration might divert commercial ammunition production to support Ukraine’s war effort, creating a domestic scarcity. One major online retailer reported a 166% increase in revenue and a 110% increase in transactions in the two weeks immediately following the invasion.⁴⁷

The war also created legitimate concerns on the supply side. The massive consumption of small arms and artillery ammunition by both sides of the conflict placed a significant strain on global production capacity and raw material supply chains.⁴⁸ Furthermore, the subsequent sanctions against Russia effectively eliminated the future importation of Russian-made steel-cased ammunition from brands like Tula and Wolf, which had long served as a popular low-cost training alternative for many American shooters.

However, the market’s reaction to this shock demonstrated both its “trauma” from 2020 and its newfound resilience. Unlike the 2020 crisis, there was no simultaneous internal supply collapse. To the contrary, domestic production capacity was at an all-time high due to the investments made during the previous shortage.⁴ This enhanced resilience allowed the industry to absorb the new demand spike more effectively. While prices did increase, the surge was far less severe and much shorter-lived than the 2020 peak. The market bent, but it did not break.

Market Stabilization

Following the initial shock of the Ukraine invasion, the market found a new, higher equilibrium. The increased domestic production capacity proved sufficient to meet the elevated demand. By 2023, prices had stabilized considerably, with bulk 9mm FMJ generally trading in a range of $0.24 to $0.28 per round. Forum discussions from this period reflect this new reality, with shooters considering a case price of $240 to $260 to be the new market rate.³⁴ The great correction had ended, and a new baseline had been established.

VIII. The New Equilibrium: Market Realignment (Q1 2024 – Q2 2025)

Establishing a New Baseline

From late 2023 through the first half of 2025, the 9mm ammunition market has entered a phase of relative stability, but at a price point that represents a clear structural shift from the pre-2020 era. The extreme volatility has subsided, and supply has largely caught up with demand. However, prices have not returned to their former lows. The average market price for a 1,000-round case of standard 9mm FMJ ammunition has consistently hovered in the $200 to $250 range, establishing a new baseline CPR of approximately $0.20 to $0.25.²⁶ This “new normal” is the result of fundamental changes in both production costs and consumer dynamics.

Current Cost Drivers

Several factors underpin this new, higher price floor. First, the cost of raw materials, particularly key components like copper and lead, has remained elevated compared to the last decade, creating persistent upward pressure on manufacturing costs.²⁶ Second, the millions of new gun owners who entered the market during the 2020 crisis have permanently enlarged the consumer base, creating a higher baseline of regular consumption for training and recreational shooting, even in the absence of panic buying.⁴

Third, manufacturers are contending with higher input costs across the board, including labor, energy, and transportation. Furthermore, the significant capital investments made since 2020 to expand production capacity must be recouped through pricing, contributing to a higher structural cost floor for production.²⁶ The market is also more consolidated. Vista Outdoor’s acquisition of Remington’s ammunition division has given it control over a larger share of domestic production (including Federal, CCI, Speer, and Remington), which may reduce the downward competitive pressure on pricing that was prevalent before 2020.⁴²

The 2024 Election Cycle and 2025 Tariffs

The lead-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election saw a predictable, though less frantic, increase in purchasing activity as consumers hedged against potential political changes. This contributed to price firmness in late 2024 and early 2025.²⁶

A new element of uncertainty was introduced in the spring of 2025 with the implementation of broad new tariffs on imported goods. As announced in April 2025, these measures included tariffs on ammunition and the raw materials used in its production.⁵² While the substantial domestic production capacity for 9mm ammunition has insulated it from the most severe immediate impacts seen in more import-reliant calibers, these tariffs are expected to exert gradual upward pressure on prices. As retailers and manufacturers deplete their pre-tariff inventories, the increased cost of imported components and competing products will likely be passed on to consumers, with more noticeable effects anticipated by late 2025.⁵²

Current Market State (Q2 2025)

As of the second quarter of 2025, the market is characterized by healthy supply and stable, albeit elevated, pricing. A survey of major online retailers shows that 1,000-round cases of popular 115-grain and 124-grain brass-cased FMJ from brands like Blazer Brass, Federal American Eagle, Winchester, and S&B are clustered in the $215 to $255 price range. This equates to a CPR of approximately $0.22 to $0.26.⁵⁰ The current market is not a post-bubble correction but a semi-permanent structural shift. The cost floor for ammunition has been fundamentally raised, and the ~$0.20 per round mark appears to be the new structural baseline, with future price spikes driven by external events now building from this higher starting point.

IX. Market Summary & Data Annex

Table 1: Historical Price Trend Analysis (Quarterly, 1995-2025)

The following table provides a synthesized market average price for a 1,000-round case of standard, brass-cased 9mm Luger FMJ ammunition, tracked quarterly over the past three decades. It correlates these price trends with the key events that influenced market dynamics. Note: Steel-cased ammunition was consistently available for 20-30% less than the brass prices listed below until sanctions on Russian imports began in 2022.

Quarter/Year	Avg. Price per 1,000rd Case (Est.)	Avg. Price per Round (Est.)	Key Correlated Events & Market Drivers
Q3 1995	$120	$0.12	Post-AWB market; stable supply, low prices.
Q4 1995	$120	$0.12	Post-AWB market; stable supply, low prices.
Q1 1996	$120	$0.12	Post-AWB market; stable supply, low prices.
Q2 1996	$120	$0.12	Post-AWB market; stable supply, low prices.
Q3 1996	$120	$0.12	Post-AWB market; stable supply, low prices.
Q4 1996	$120	$0.12	Post-AWB market; stable supply, low prices.
Q1 1997	$120	$0.12	Post-AWB market; stable supply, low prices.
Q2 1997	$120	$0.12	Post-AWB market; stable supply, low prices.
Q3 1997	$120	$0.12	Post-AWB market; stable supply, low prices.
Q4 1997	$120	$0.12	Post-AWB market; stable supply, low prices.
Q1 1998	$120	$0.12	Post-AWB market; stable supply, low prices.
Q2 1998	$120	$0.12	Post-AWB market; stable supply, low prices.
Q3 1998	$120	$0.12	Post-AWB market; stable supply, low prices.
Q4 1998	$120	$0.12	Post-AWB market; stable supply, low prices.
Q1 1999	$120	$0.12	Market remains stable.
Q2 1999	$120	$0.12	Market remains stable.
Q3 1999	$120	$0.12	Market remains stable.
Q4 1999	$140	$0.14	“Y2K Scare” causes temporary demand spike.16
Q1 2000	$125	$0.13	Y2K fears dissipate; prices return to normal.
Q2 2000	$120	$0.12	Continued period of low prices and high availability.
Q3 2000	$120	$0.12	Continued period of low prices and high availability.
Q4 2000	$120	$0.12	Continued period of low prices and high availability.
Q1 2001	$130	$0.13	Post-9/11 period; no major consumer market shock.23
Q2 2001	$130	$0.13	Post-9/11 period; no major consumer market shock.23
Q3 2001	$130	$0.13	Post-9/11 period; no major consumer market shock.23
Q4 2001	$130	$0.13	Post-9/11 period; no major consumer market shock.23
Q1 2002	$130	$0.13	Post-9/11 period; no major consumer market shock.23
Q2 2002	$130	$0.13	Post-9/11 period; no major consumer market shock.23
Q3 2002	$130	$0.13	Post-9/11 period; no major consumer market shock.23
Q4 2002	$130	$0.13	Post-9/11 period; no major consumer market shock.23
Q1 2003	$130	$0.13	Post-9/11 period; no major consumer market shock.23
Q2 2003	$130	$0.13	Post-9/11 period; no major consumer market shock.23
Q3 2003	$130	$0.13	Post-9/11 period; no major consumer market shock.23
Q4 2003	$130	$0.13	Post-9/11 period; no major consumer market shock.23
Q1 2004	$140	$0.14	Market stable leading up to AWB expiration.
Q2 2004	$140	$0.14	Market stable leading up to AWB expiration.
Q3 2004	$140	$0.14	Market stable leading up to AWB expiration.
Q4 2004	$145	$0.15	Sept 13: AWB expires. No immediate market shock.
Q1 2005	$150	$0.15	Post-Hurricane Katrina commodity price increases begin.25
Q2 2005	$150	$0.15	Post-Hurricane Katrina commodity price increases begin.25
Q3 2005	$150	$0.15	Post-Hurricane Katrina commodity price increases begin.25
Q4 2005	$155	$0.16	Stable market with slowly rising input costs.27
Q1 2006	$160	$0.16	Continued gradual price increases.27
Q2 2006	$160	$0.16	Ample supply meets regular consumer demand.
Q3 2006	$165	$0.17	Steady rise in manufacturing costs.
Q4 2006	$165	$0.17	Market remains stable pre-2007 price hikes.
Q1 2007	$170	$0.17	Significant commodity price pressures build.27
Q2 2007	$175	$0.18	Market anticipates manufacturer price increases.
Q3 2007	$185	$0.19	Sept 1: Major manufacturers implement price hikes.
Q4 2007	$190	$0.19	Pre-election cycle anxiety begins to emerge.
Q1 2008	$195	$0.20	Growing demand driven by contentious presidential election.
Q2 2008	$200	$0.20	Consumer “panic buying” begins to accelerate.
Q3 2008	$210	$0.21	Pre-election demand peaks; supply tightens.
Q4 2008	$350	$0.35	Nov 4: Obama elected. First major panic buy; prices double.
Q1 2009	$400	$0.40	Peak of first “Obama Shortage”; widespread scarcity.
Q2 2009	$400	$0.40	Manufacturers operate at full capacity but cannot meet demand.
Q3 2009	$380	$0.38	Prices remain highly elevated as shortage persists.
Q4 2009	$360	$0.36	First signs of supply beginning to catch up.
Q1 2010	$340	$0.34	Market begins slow correction from peak prices.
Q2 2010	$320	$0.32	Increased supply leads to gradual price drops.
Q3 2010	$300	$0.30	Political anxiety subsides; demand normalizes.
Q4 2010	$290	$0.29	Prices continue to fall as inventories are replenished.
Q1 2011	$280	$0.28	Period of relative market stability and normalization.
Q2 2011	$260	$0.26	Strong competition returns to the market.
Q3 2011	$250	$0.25	Prices find a new floor, higher than pre-2008 levels.
Q4 2011	$250	$0.25	Market is stable leading into the 2012 election year.
Q1 2012	$240	$0.24	Pre-election demand begins to build again.
Q2 2012	$245	$0.25	Market remains well-supplied but demand is firm.
Q3 2012	$250	$0.25	Demand increases ahead of presidential election.
Q4 2012	$450	$0.45	Nov 6: Obama re-elected; Dec 14: Sandy Hook shooting. Massive panic buy begins.1
Q1 2013	$550	$0.55	Peak of Sandy Hook shortage; prices reach new historic highs.
Q2 2013	$550	$0.55	Extreme scarcity of all popular calibers.
Q3 2013	$500	$0.50	Prices begin to slowly recede as production ramps up.
Q4 2013	$480	$0.48	Supply remains tight but panic buying subsides.
Q1 2014	$450	$0.45	Market begins a long, slow recovery.
Q2 2014	$400	$0.40	Increased production begins to fill supply channels.
Q3 2014	$350	$0.35	Prices fall significantly as inventories are rebuilt.
Q4 2014	$300	$0.30	Market approaches normalization ahead of the “Trump Slump” period.
Q1 2015	$220	$0.22	Market normalizing after previous shortages; stable supply.
Q2 2015	$215	$0.22	Continued price competition among manufacturers.
Q3 2015	$210	$0.21	Pre-election cycle demand begins to build slowly.
Q4 2015	$225	$0.23	Increased demand in anticipation of 2016 election year.
Q1 2016	$230	$0.23	Heightened consumer anxiety over potential Clinton presidency.30
Q2 2016	$235	$0.24	Peak pre-election demand; supply remains adequate.
Q3 2016	$230	$0.23	Market holds steady with high demand before election.
Q4 2016	$200	$0.20	Nov 8: Trump elected. “Trump Slump” begins; demand collapses.30
Q1 2017	$195	$0.20	Market flooded with surplus inventory; prices fall.
Q2 2017	$190	$0.19	Sustained buyer’s market; deep discounts become common.
Q3 2017	$190	$0.19	Continued price depression; low consumer anxiety.
Q4 2017	$185	$0.19	Market reaches price floor for the period.
Q1 2018	$185	$0.19	Stable, low prices continue; Remington files for bankruptcy (March).6
Q2 2018	$190	$0.19	Minor price firming; market absorbs Remington news without major shock.
Q3 2018	$195	$0.20	Slight demand increase ahead of mid-term elections.
Q4 2018	$190	$0.19	Mid-terms have minimal impact on national market.33
Q1 2019	$185	$0.19	Continued market stasis and low pricing.32
Q2 2019	$180	$0.18	Prices remain at historic lows due to ample supply.
Q3 2019	$180	$0.18	The market remains a buyer’s paradise.28
Q4 2019	$175	$0.18	Lowest price point of the decade before the crisis.
Q1 2020	$250	$0.25	Feb 23: COVID-19 fears trigger massive demand spike.5
Q2 2020	$550	$0.55	May 26: Civil unrest begins, accelerating demand.4
Q3 2020	$650	$0.65	July 28: Remington files for bankruptcy, crippling supply.4
Q4 2020	$700	$0.70	Nov 3: Biden elected. Peak panic buying; prices reach historic highs.35
Q1 2021	$750	$0.75	Price peak; supply chains remain broken, primer shortage critical.35
Q2 2021	$600	$0.60	Slow price correction begins as production (incl. Remington) ramps up.4
Q3 2021	$500	$0.50	Correction continues, but prices remain highly elevated.
Q4 2021	$400	$0.40	Supply improves, bringing prices down significantly from peak.
Q1 2022	$350	$0.35	Feb 24: Russia invades Ukraine. New demand shock occurs.47
Q2 2022	$380	$0.38	Prices rise in response to invasion but are capped by high production.
Q3 2022	$340	$0.34	Ukraine-related price spike subsides; correction resumes.
Q4 2022	$300	$0.30	Prices continue to normalize as supply remains strong.
Q1 2023	$280	$0.28	Market enters a period of stabilization at a “new normal” price.26
Q2 2023	$260	$0.26	Strong competition and supply lead to further price moderation.
Q3 2023	$250	$0.25	Prices hold steady in a well-supplied market.34
Q4 2023	$240	$0.24	Market establishes a new, higher price floor.
Q1 2024	$235	$0.24	Stable pricing with minor fluctuations due to raw material costs.
Q2 2024	$230	$0.23	Continued stability; market well-balanced.
Q3 2024	$240	$0.24	Demand increases in lead-up to 2024 presidential election.
Q4 2024	$250	$0.25	Post-election demand remains firm.26
Q1 2025	$245	$0.25	Market digests election results; prices remain stable.26
Q2 2025	$240	$0.24	April: New tariffs on imports announced, future price impact expected.52

Table 2: Current Market Snapshot (Q2 2025)

This table provides a representative snapshot of bulk 9mm FMJ ammunition pricing from major brands, based on a survey of online retailers in the second quarter of 2025. Prices reflect standard, non-sale offerings for 1,000-round cases.

Brand	Make/Model	Representative Price per 1,000rd Case	Representative Price per Round
Blazer Brass	115gr & 124gr FMJ	$215 – $235	$0.22 – $0.24
Federal American Eagle	115gr & 124gr FMJ	$225 – $245	$0.23 – $0.25
Winchester “White Box”	115gr FMJ	$230 – $250	$0.23 – $0.25
CCI/Speer Lawman	115gr & 124gr TMJ/FMJ	$240 – $260	$0.24 – $0.26
Sellier & Bellot (S&B)	115gr & 124gr FMJ	$220 – $240	$0.22 – $0.24
Magtech	115gr & 124gr FMJ	$210 – $230	$0.21 – $0.23

Analyst’s Note on Methodology

The analysis and data presented in this report are based on a synthesized market average due to the absence of a centralized, official historical price index for retail ammunition in the United States. The quarterly price estimates were derived by triangulating data from a wide range of disparate sources to construct a representative trend line for bulk (1,000-round case) quantities of standard, brass-cased 9mm Luger FMJ ammunition (115gr and 124gr).

The sources utilized in this methodology include:

• Archived Online Retailer Data: Where available, historical product pages, sale announcements, and cached data from major online ammunition vendors were analyzed to establish specific price points at distinct times.
• Contemporaneous Industry Reporting: Articles and reports from firearms industry publications, financial news outlets, and market analysis firms provided context and data on market conditions, supply chain issues, and manufacturer-level pricing trends during specific periods.
• Public Forum and Community Data: Dated posts, transaction records, and discussions from high-traffic online firearms communities (such as AR15.com, TheHighRoad.org, and various subreddits) were systematically reviewed. This open-source intelligence provided invaluable anecdotal, yet time-stamped, evidence of prevailing “street prices” for specific products, which served as crucial data points for periods where formal data is scarce, particularly for the 1995-2005 timeframe.²⁸
• Manufacturer Financial Disclosures and Government Data: Publicly available financial reports, investor call transcripts, and Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index data were examined to understand broader trends in sales volume, revenue, and production costs.

It is important to note that the prices listed in Table 1 are estimated market averages for a “basket” of common products and are not intended to reflect the exact price of any single product from a specific retailer on a given day. The primary objective of this synthesized index is to accurately represent the overall trend, direction, and magnitude of price movements in the consumer market over the specified 30-year period.

---

If you find this post useful, please share the link on Facebook, with your friends, etc. Your support is much appreciated and if you have any feedback, please email me at in**@*********ps.com. Please note that for links to other websites, we are only paid if there is an affiliate program such as Avantlink, Impact, Amazon and eBay and only if you purchase something. If you’d like to directly donate to help fund our continued report, please visit our donations page.

---

Works cited

1. 2008–2016 United States ammunition shortage – Wikipedia, accessed August 30, 2025, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932016_United_States_ammunition_shortage
2. Panic Buying Based on Previous Election Results – The Mag Shack, accessed August 30, 2025, https://themagshack.com/panic-buying-based-on-previous-election-results/
3. The Ammo and Gun Crisis of 2013 – ThruMyLens, accessed August 30, 2025, https://thrumylens.org/featured/the-ammo-and-gun-crisis-of-2013/
4. 2020–present United States ammunition shortage – Wikipedia, accessed August 30, 2025, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%93present_United_States_ammunition_shortage
5. Data Study: Ammo Sales Continue to Soar in Wake of Coronavirus Panic, accessed August 30, 2025, https://ammo.com/coronavirus-impact-on-ammunition-sales
6. Remington Outdoor Company – Wikipedia, accessed August 30, 2025, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remington_Outdoor_Company
7. Impacts of the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban – Office of Justice Programs, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/173405.pdf
8. Federal Assault Weapons Ban – Wikipedia, accessed August 30, 2025, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Assault_Weapons_Ban
9. Correcting Myths About the Assault Weapons Ban Research – Urban Institute, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/correcting-myths-about-assault-weapons-ban-research
10. Assault weapons legislation in the United States – Wikipedia, accessed August 30, 2025, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assault_weapons_legislation_in_the_United_States
11. Assault Weapons | GIFFORDS, accessed August 30, 2025, https://giffords.org/lawcenter/gun-laws/policy-areas/hardware-ammunition/assault-weapons/
12. Impact of the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban: 1994-96, Research in Brief, accessed August 30, 2025, https://nij.ojp.gov/library/publications/impact-1994-assault-weapons-ban-1994-96-research-brief
13. Brass vs Steel Ammunition: Complete Comparison (With Video) | USCCA, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.usconcealedcarry.com/blog/brass-vs-steel-ammo/
14. Steel vs Brass Ammo: The Great Ammunition Debate by Ammo.com, accessed August 30, 2025, https://ammo.com/casing-type/steel-vs-brass-ammo
15. Steel vs. Brass Ammo: Which is Better? – Silencer Central, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.silencercentral.com/blog/steel-vs-brass-ammo-which-is-better/
16. Flashback: Y2K fear boosts gun sales – CBS News, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.cbsnews.com/video/flashback-y2k-fear-boosts-gun-sales/
17. Cashing in on the New Millennium – Violence Policy Center, accessed August 30, 2025, https://vpc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Cashing-in-on-the-New-Millennium-1999.pdf
18. Cashing in on the New Millennium – Section One: The Marketing of Y2K, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.vpc.org/studies/y2kone.htm
19. Cashing In on the New Millennium: How the Firearms Industry Exploits Y2K Fears to Sell More Guns | Office of Justice Programs, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/cashing-new-millennium-how-firearms-industry-exploits-y2k-fears
20. New VPC Report Details How Firearms Industry Exploits Y2K Fears to Sell More Guns, accessed August 30, 2025, https://vpc.org/press/press-release-archive/new-vpc-report-details-how-firearms-industry-exploits-y2k-fears-to-sell-more-guns/
21. Y2K: The Fear Factor – CBS News, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/y2k-the-fear-factor/
22. 15 years ago: The Limited Edition Y2K assault rifle – CBS News, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/flashback-the-limited-edition-y2k-assault-rifle/
23. The Costs of War | Carnegie Reporter Fall 2023, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.carnegie.org/our-work/article/costs-war/
24. Profits of War: Corporate Beneficiaries of the Post-9/11 Pentagon Spending Surge – Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, accessed August 30, 2025, https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2021/Profits%20of%20War_Hartung_Costs%20of%20War_Sept%2013%2C%202021.pdf
25. 2006-2020 Ammo Price Change by year (with 9mm, 223/556, and 22lr ammo). – Reddit, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.reddit.com/r/guns/comments/js910s/20062020_ammo_price_change_by_year_with_9mm/
26. 9mm Ammo Price History + Chart – How Much is 9mm Today? | Black Basin Outdoors, accessed August 30, 2025, https://blackbasin.com/ammo-prices/9mm/
27. How the Price of Ammunition Has Changed Each Year Since the 1970s, accessed August 30, 2025, https://247wallst.com/special-report/2023/01/24/how-the-price-of-ammunition-has-changed-each-year-since-the-1970s/
28. What were “Normal” ammo prices : r/liberalgunowners – Reddit, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.reddit.com/r/liberalgunowners/comments/17pk7be/what_were_normal_ammo_prices/
29. Ammo price pre Covid : r/CAguns – Reddit, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.reddit.com/r/CAguns/comments/1ape7gq/ammo_price_pre_covid/
30. What’s really causing the slump in US gun sales? | World Finance, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.worldfinance.com/markets/whats-really-causing-the-slump-in-us-gun-sales
31. The world’s using more ammo, and Alberta gun owners are paying the price | CBC News, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ammo-prices-jump-alberta-gun-owners-1.7462100
32. U.S. Firearms Industry 2019, accessed August 30, 2025, https://shootingindustry.com/firearms-production/u-s-firearms-industry-2019/
33. How midterm elections could impact the firearms industry — or not | Fox Business, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/how-midterm-elections-could-impact-firearms-industry
34. Ammo prices | The Armory Life Forum, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.thearmorylife.com/forum/threads/ammo-prices.16061/
35. Then and now. 9mm ammo prices | The Armory Life Forum, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.thearmorylife.com/forum/threads/then-and-now-9mm-ammo-prices.7092/
36. 2020 Black Lives Matter Protests – University Archives, accessed August 30, 2025, https://universityarchives.uflib.ufl.edu/explore-our-projects/2020-black-lives-matter-protests/
37. George Floyd protests – Wikipedia, accessed August 30, 2025, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd_protests
38. United States racial unrest (2020–2023) – Wikipedia, accessed August 30, 2025, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_racial_unrest_(2020%E2%80%932023)
39. Remington Arms – Wikipedia, accessed August 30, 2025, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remington_Arms
40. Vista Outdoor wins Remington Ammunition – Fox Business, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/vista-outdoor-wins-remington-ammunition
41. Vista Outdoor Closes Acquisition Of Remington’s Ammunition And Accessories Assets, accessed August 30, 2025, https://sgbonline.com/vista-outdoor-closes-acquisition-of-remingtons-ammunition-and-accessories-assets/
42. Vista Outdoor – Wikipedia, accessed August 30, 2025, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vista_Outdoor
43. Vista Outdoor Named Successful Bidder In Remington Ammunition Acquisition – SGB Media, accessed August 30, 2025, https://sgbonline.com/vista-outdoor-named-successful-bidder-in-bankruptcy-auction-to-acquire-remington-ammunition-and-accessories-assets/
44. en.wikipedia.org, accessed August 30, 2025, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#:~:text=On%2024%20February%202022%2C%20Russia,prohibitions%20against%20Ukraine%20joining%20NATO.
45. Conflict in Ukraine: A timeline (current conflict, 2022 – present) – House of Commons Library, accessed August 30, 2025, https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9847/
46. Russian War in Ukraine: Timeline – Defense.gov, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.defense.gov/Spotlights/Support-for-Ukraine/Timeline/
47. Data Study: U.S. Ammo Sales Surge Following Russian Invasion, accessed August 30, 2025, https://ammo.com/articles/russian-invasion-impact-on-ammunition-sales
48. The Core Issue: Ammunition Manufacturing and its Effects on the Russia-Ukraine War, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.habtoorresearch.com/programmes/russo-ukrainian-war/
49. Leggo my ammo – ZX-14 Forums, accessed August 30, 2025, https://zx14ninjaforum.com/messages.cfm?threadid=A450A537-C578-180B-2DEED8E33C24824D
50. Buy 9mm Ammo Online (Cheap Hollow Point & FMJ Rounds), accessed August 30, 2025, https://ammo.com/handgun/9mm-ammo
51. 9mm Ammo | Bulk 9mm Ammunition For Sale Cheap – Lucky Gunner, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.luckygunner.com/handgun/9mm-ammo
52. May 2025 Ammunition Price Trends: Navigating the Market After Trump’s Tariffs, accessed August 30, 2025, https://blackbasin.com/news/may-2025-ammunition-price-trends-navigating-the-market-after-trumps-tariffs/
53. CCI Blazer Brass, 9mm, FMJ-RN, 115 Grain, 1000 Rounds | Sportsman’s Guide, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.sportsmansguide.com/product/index/cci-blazer-brass-9mm-fmj-rn-115-grain-1000-rounds?a=3037705
54. Bulk Blazer Brass 9mm Luger (9×19) Ammo for Sale – 1000 Rounds, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.ammunitiontogo.com/1000rds-9mm-blazer-brass-115gr-fmj-ammo
55. CCI Blazer Brass 9mm Luger Ammunition 100 Grain Full Metal Jacket – 5296, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.targetsportsusa.com/cci-blazer-brass-9mm-luger-ammo-100-grain-fmj-5296-p-113557.aspx
56. Federal Ammo For Sale, accessed August 30, 2025, https://ammo.com/brands/federal-ammo
57. Winchester USA 9mm Luger Ammunition 115 Grain Full Metal Jacket – W9MM50, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.targetsportsusa.com/winchester-usa-9mm-ammo-115-gr-fmj-w9mm50-p-113004.aspx
58. Moment of Truth from my SA-35 | The Armory Life Forum, accessed August 30, 2025, https://www.thearmorylife.com/forum/threads/moment-of-truth-from-my-sa-35.11343/