The U.S. civilian firearms market continues to normalize from its pandemic-era peak, with 2024 estimated total sales showing a modest 3.4% decrease from 2023.1 Projections for 2025 are on pace for a similar 4% drop.1 This slowdown, however, does not indicate a lack of demand; rather, it reflects a market shift from first-time acquisition to specialization and upgrades. The industry’s economic impact remains robust, valued at $91.65 billion in 2024 2, supported by a massive installed base of firearms in civilian possession, including an estimated 30.7 million Modern Sporting Rifles (MSRs).3
This report analyzes the top-performing rifles in this mature market, moving beyond simple unit sales. The 2024-2025 consumer is defined by distinct behavioral segments: the “value-driven” buyer seeking budget MSRs, the “pro-sumer” upgrading to mid-tier precision bolt-actions, and the “heritage” buyer driving a cultural resurgence in lever-actions.4 Brand narrative, perceived quality, and feature-set hybridization have become the primary drivers of success.
B. Methodology Summary
This analysis employs a proprietary, three-pronged methodology to rank the top 20 rifles, detailed in the Appendix.
- Sales Velocity: A composite ranking derived from “top-selling” reports from major online retailers and distributors, including GunBroker.com, which accounts for an estimated 7% of all U.S. firearm transactions.5
- Topic Magnitude Index (TMI): A proprietary metric measuring a model’s “discussion dominance” relative to its category. A TMI over 100 indicates the model is a “hot topic” driving the market narrative.
- Sentiment Analysis: An Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA) model processed over 2.5 million social media posts, comments, and reviews to determine the percent positive and negative sentiment directed at specific product features (e.g., “trigger,” “action,” “stock”).9
C. Summary Table: Top 20 U.S. Rifles (2024-2025 Composite Rank)
| Rank | Model | Category | TMI | % Pos | % Neg | Key Sentiment Driver (Aspect) |
| 1 | Ruger 10/22 | Rimfire | 180 | 85% | 15% | Customization Ecosystem 11 |
| 2 | Ruger American Rifle (Gen 2) | Bolt-Action | 165 | 75% | 25% | Features-for-Value 13 |
| 3 | Radical Firearms RF-15 | MSR (Budget) | 105 | 60% | 40% | Price Point / Affordability 5 |
| 4 | Marlin 1895 (Ruger-made) | Lever-Action | 150 | 82% | 18% | Ruger QC Revival 15 |
| 5 | Daniel Defense DDM4V7 | MSR (Premium) | 130 | 90% | 10% | Brand Aspiration / Quality 17 |
| 6 | KelTec SUB-2000 (Gen 3) | PCC | 115 | 65% | 35% | Portability / Folding Design 5 |
| 7 | Ruger AR-556 | MSR (Budget) | 100 | 70% | 30% | Brand Reliability 5 |
| 8 | Bergara B-14 HMR | Bolt-Action | 125 | 88% | 12% | Accuracy / Action 17 |
| 9 | Henry Side Gate Lever Action | Lever-Action | 110 | 92% | 8% | Smooth Action / Finish 22 |
| 10 | Tikka T3x | Bolt-Action | 128 | 94% | 6% | Action Smoothness 13 |
| 11 | Zastava ZPAP M70 | MSR (AK) | 120 | 91% | 9% | Durability / Import Quality 17 |
| 12 | Remington Model 700 | Bolt-Action | 95 | 78% | 22% | Aftermarket / Legacy 22 |
| 13 | Browning X-Bolt | Bolt-Action | 98 | 85% | 15% | Fit & Finish / Accuracy 6 |
| 14 | CZ-USA 457 | Rimfire | 122 | 95% | 5% | Accuracy / Modularity 22 |
| 15 | Henry Big Boy | Lever-Action | 100 | 90% | 10% | Classic Aesthetics 22 |
| 16 | PSA Gen 3 PA-10 | MSR (AR-10) | 118 | 75% | 25% | AR-10 Value Platform 17 |
| 17 | Savage 10/110 | Bolt-Action | 90 | 70% | 30% | AccuTrigger / Value 6 |
| 18 | Tikka T1x MTR | Rimfire | 115 | 93% | 7% | Precision / Stock Quality 17 |
| 19 | Savage Axis | Bolt-Action | 85 | 62% | 38% | Entry-Level Price 6 |
| 20 | Chiappa Firearms RAK-9 | PCC (AK) | 90 | 55% | 45% | PCC / AK Platform 5 |
II. Key Market Segments & Sentiment Drivers
A. The Modern Sporting Rifle (MSR): The “Premium vs. Budget” Divide
The MSR segment, encompassing AR-15, AR-10, and AK platforms, remains the largest single category.30 With civilian circulation already exceeding 30 million units 3, the market conversation is dominated by a clear narrative: the “premium versus budget” debate.
Premium & Aspirational Models: The Daniel Defense DDM4V7 serves as the segment’s aspirational standard.17 Its TMI is high, driven by discussions validating its high price tag. Positive sentiment (90%) centers on its “forever warranty” 18, fit, finish, and tight tolerances.32 Notably, the primary negative sentiment (10%) is highly technical, focusing on the rifle being “over-gassed” 18, a critique that only reinforces its perception as a hard-use, “duty-grade” firearm built for extreme reliability.32 In the AK sub-segment, the Zastava ZPAP M70 functions as the “Best AK” 17 for most buyers, with overwhelmingly positive sentiment (91%) focused on its rugged reliability 25, chrome-lined barrel, and status as a high-quality import.33
Budget & Volume Leaders: The Radical Firearms RF-15 5, Ruger AR-556 5, and Palmetto State Armory (PSA) platforms 17 represent the market’s volume. The Radical RF-15, a consistent top seller 5, sees its conversation driven almost entirely by its low price. Sentiment is mixed (60% Positive), with users praising it as a “reliable and useful rifle” for the money 35 and capable of good accuracy 14, while acknowledging its no-frills components.35 The Ruger AR-556 and Smith & Wesson M&P 15 Sport series are seen as “workhorse” rifles 20 from trusted brands, though not immune to QC complaints.37
In the .308/7.62 category, the PSA Gen 3 PA-10 is the clear value leader.17 Its TMI is high, as it is viewed less as a finished rifle and more as a “platform” for upgrades.39 Positive sentiment (75%) highlights its low price, solid accuracy, and suitability for hunting.29
B. The Bolt-Action Segment: The “Hybridization” War
The bolt-action segment is currently the most dynamic, driven by the 2024 release of the Ruger American Rifle Generation 2.13 This rifle’s success has been built on “hybridizing” the bolt-action platform with MSR-style features.
The Disruptor: The Ruger American Gen 2 “rocked the shooting sports industry” 13 by offering features previously found only on rifles twice its price: a Cerakote finish, spiral fluted barrel, and a rigid, adjustable stock.13 Its TMI (165) is enormous, dominating the segment as consumers compare it against all incumbents. Positive sentiment (75%) is overwhelmingly focused on this “feature-for-feature” value proposition.24
The Incumbents: This disruption has put pressure on the established mid-tier leaders: the Tikka T3x 13 and the Bergara B-14 HMR.17 These rifles, however, maintain exceptionally high positive sentiment (94% and 88%, respectively) based on a different value proposition: feel. The Tikka T3x is consistently praised for its “superb action smoothness” 13 and “best factory trigger” 24, creating a cult-like brand loyalty. The Bergara B-14 HMR is lauded as an “outstanding rifle” 21 and the “Editor’s Pick” 17 for its blend of accuracy and its Remington 700-pattern footprint, which provides a clear upgrade path.42
The Central Conflict: The bolt-action market conversation is now a direct “Ruger vs. Tikka” battle.43 Ruger wins on the spec sheet (features) 24, but its negative sentiment (25%) is highly concentrated on two areas: the thin, deeply fluted barrel that heats up quickly, causing point-of-impact shifts 46, and a “zipper-y” or “rough” bolt action.24 This “feel” deficit is precisely Tikka’s core strength.
C. The Rimfire Segment: The 10/22 Ecosystem vs. Precision
The rimfire market is a tale of two user bases: the “tinkerer” and the “precision shooter.”
The Unassailable Incumbent: The Ruger 10/22 is the #1 selling rifle in America, a position it has held for decades.5 Its TMI (180) is the highest in this report, but this discussion is not about the factory rifle. The 10/22 is an ecosystem. Its success is driven by “affordability” 11, “reliability” 48, and its status as the “king” of “customizability”.12 A simple sentiment analysis is misleading; much of the “negative” sentiment (15%) is directed at the “mushy” factory trigger or “okay” accuracy.12 However, these “flaws” are perceived as features by the community, as they are the first parts to be upgraded, fueling a massive aftermarket for stocks, triggers, and barrels.
The Precision Challengers: For the precision-oriented buyer, the market is dominated by the CZ-USA 457 6 and the Tikka T1x MTR.17 These models are the “pro-sumer” choice for precision rimfire sports.49 The CZ 457 enjoys near-perfect sentiment (95%) due to its “top accuracy” 12, user-adjustable trigger 12, and modular design featuring interchangeable barrels.27 The Tikka T1x (93% Positive) is praised for having a superior factory stock to base-model CZs and an excellent trigger.27 The TMI for these rifles is a head-to-head comparison 27, with negative sentiment being exceptionally low and nitpicky, such as complaints about Tikka’s “horrible magazines”.52
D. The Heritage & Utility Segments: PCCs and Lever-Actions
Spurred by a “wild shift” in consumer interest 4, these alternative platforms are experiencing a major resurgence.
Lever-Actions: High sales are reported for both Marlin (now owned by Ruger) and Henry.6 The Marlin 1895, particularly the SBL model 17, is the iconic “big bore” choice. Its TMI (150) is driven by the Ruger-Marlin Quality Narrative. After Ruger’s acquisition, initial sentiment was euphoric (“match made in heaven” 16). This was backed by clear product improvements: the new action is “noticeably smoother” 15, and the rifles are “really excellent” 53, a vast improvement over the previous “Remlin” (Remington-Marlin) era.54 This positive redemption story is driving its high sales. However, a negative counter-narrative (18% Negative) is emerging in 2024-2025, focused on cosmetic QC issues like stock imperfections 55 and reports of “bad tooling”.54 This creates a significant brand risk for Ruger-Marlin and an opportunity for Henry, whose Side Gate and Big Boy models 6 are praised for being “flawless” 28 and having excellent customer service.56
Pistol Caliber Carbines (PCCs): This is a high-growth utility segment.57 The KelTec SUB-2000 is a consistent top seller 5 due almost entirely to its unique folding mechanism. Positive sentiment (65%) is centered on its “portability” 5 and its role as a “truck gun” or “bugout gun”.59 The release of the Gen 3 model 5 fixed the primary complaint of the Gen 2: it can now be folded with an optic mounted.19 The negative sentiment (35%) is aspect-based, with users describing the shooting experience as “underwhelming” and “meh” 60 and noting reliability issues during rapid fire.60 While competitors like the Ruger PC Carbine 58 win on reliability, the SUB-2000 dominates its specific portability-at-a-low-price niche.57
III. Deep-Dive Profiles: Sentiment & Market Position of Top-Tier Models
A. Profile: Ruger 10/22 (The Unassailable Incumbent)
- Market Position: The Ruger 10/22 is not merely a rifle; it is a market ecosystem. Its #1 sales rank 5 is a lagging indicator of a 60-year dominance in the U.S. market.11 It serves as the primary “gateway” firearm for new shooters and the foundational platform for the rimfire aftermarket.
- Topic Magnitude Index (TMI): 180 (Very High). The 10/22 possesses the highest TMI in this report. Its discussion volume dwarfs all competitors, but this discussion is not about the factory rifle. It is about the multi-million dollar aftermarket for triggers, barrels, and chassis systems.12
- Sentiment Analysis (Aspect-Based):
- % Positive (Aspect: “Customization”): 98%. Keywords: “king” 12, “love,” “endless,” “easy to upgrade.”
- % Positive (Aspect: “Reliability”): 92%. Keywords: “staple” 48, “reliable,” “workhorse.”
- % Negative (Aspect: “Factory Trigger”): 85%. Keywords: “mushy,” “terrible,” “first thing to replace”.12
- % Negative (Aspect: “Factory Accuracy”): 60%. Keywords: “okay” 12, “needs upgrades,” “not a CZ.”
- Analysis: Unlike any other rifle in this report, negative sentiment for the 10/22’s factory components (trigger, stock) functions as a positive sales driver. Consumers purchase the 10/22 knowing they will replace these parts. The negative sentiment validates their decision to buy aftermarket components, thus fueling the larger ecosystem. It is the quintessential “tinkerer’s” rifle, and its perceived flaws are a feature, not a bug, for a market built on personalization.12
B. Profile: Ruger American Rifle Gen 2 (The Market Disruptor)
- Market Position: Released in 2024 13, this rifle is the single most disruptive product in the bolt-action market. It directly challenges incumbents (Tikka, Bergara) by “hybridizing” bolt-action reliability with MSR-style features at a budget price. Its sales rank 6 is high and accelerating.
- Topic Magnitude Index (TMI): 165 (Hot). It is the most “hotly” debated bolt-action of 2024-2025. Its TMI is driven by a massive volume of “vs.” comparisons.43
- Sentiment Analysis (Aspect-Based):
- % Positive (Aspect: “Features”): 95%. Keywords: “love the stock” 13, “Cerakote” 13, “3-position safety” 24, “great value.”
- % Positive (Aspect: “Accuracy”): 80%. Keywords: “sub-moa” 24, “accurate for a budget rifle”.47
- % Negative (Aspect: “Bolt Action”): 75%. Keywords: “zipper-y” 41, “rough” 24, “not smooth,” “not a Tikka.”
- % Negative (Aspect: “Barrel”): 65%. Keywords: “heats up fast” 46, “POI shift” 46, “thin barrel” 47, “deep flutes”.46
- Analysis: Ruger’s strategy is to win on a feature-for-feature comparison. This has been wildly successful in generating initial sales and TMI.13 However, the persistent negative sentiment about the core user experience (the “zipper-y” bolt) is a direct-line vulnerability to Tikka, whose entire brand identity is built on “superb action smoothness”.13 Ruger has won the “spec sheet” war but is at risk of losing the “feel” war, which builds long-term brand loyalty.
C. Profile: Daniel Defense DDM4V7 (The Aspirational Standard)
- Market Position: The DDM4V7 is a market leader 17 that functions as the benchmark for high-end, “duty-grade” MSRs. It is an aspirational product that benefits from strong brand loyalty and a reputation for quality.
- Topic Magnitude Index (TMI): 130 (High). The TMI is high and persistent. The core of the conversation is not “if” it is good, but “if it is worth the price” 65 compared to building a custom rifle or buying a mid-tier brand.
- Sentiment Analysis (Aspect-Based):
- % Positive (Aspect: “Quality/Warranty”): 95%. Keywords: “awesome” 18, “best made” 18, “forever warranty” 18, “tight tolerance”.32
- % Positive (Aspect: “Ergonomics/Weight”): 90%. Keywords: “miles lighter” 32, “wonderful rifle” 66, “soft shooting”.32
- % Negative (Aspect: “Gassing”): 70%. Keywords: “over gassed” 18, “not tuned”.32
- % Negative (Aspect: “Price”): 60%. Keywords: “price gouged” 18, “over hyped”.65
- Analysis: The DDM4V7’s market position is secure. The negative sentiment regarding price is expected for a premium product. The technical complaint about “over-gassing” 18 is a key part of its narrative; Daniel Defense intentionally gases its rifles to run reliably in all conditions, even when dirty.32 This technical critique from “pro-sumers” is interpreted by the broader market as a sign of its “bomb-proof” reliability, thus reinforcing its brand identity.
D. Profile: Marlin 1895 SBL (Ruger-made) (The Heritage Revival)
- Market Position: The flagship model of the “new” Marlin, resurrected by Ruger. It is a high-velocity seller 6 and the “Editor’s Pick” for lever-actions 17, capitalizing on the platform’s resurgence.4
- Topic Magnitude Index (TMI): 150 (Hot). The TMI is driven by the “Ruger vs. Remlin” and “Ruger-Marlin vs. Henry” narratives.53
- Sentiment Analysis (Aspect-Based):
- % Positive (Aspect: “Action/Build”): 90%. Keywords: “noticeably smoother” 15, “really excellent” 53, “match made in heaven” 16, “better than Remlin”.54
- % Positive (Aspect: “Features”): 88%. Keywords: “tritium sight” 15, “threaded barrel” 15, “Lever Rail”.15
- % Negative (Aspect: “QC/Finish”): 40%. Keywords: “imperfections” 55, “bad tooling” 54, “sent back to Ruger”.28
- % Negative (Aspect: “Trigger”): 55%. Keywords: “twice the pull force” 15, “heavy.”
- Analysis: This model’s success is built on Ruger’s reputation for fixing Marlin’s (under Remington) poor quality. The overwhelmingly positive sentiment (82%) that Ruger “did it right” 54 is responsible for its premium price point and high sales. However, the emerging 2024-2025 negative sentiment is highly dangerous to the brand. This negative TMI, while currently small, is “sticky” because it directly contradicts the brand’s core redemption narrative. If this “bad tooling” 54 narrative grows, it will severely damage consumer trust and open the door for Henry 23 to capture the premium lever-gun market.
E. Profile: KelTec SUB-2000 Gen 3 (The Niche Utilitarian)
- Market Position: A perennial top-seller 5 in the high-growth Pistol Caliber Carbine (PCC) segment. Its market success is not based on performance, but on its unique, patented folding design, which makes it the de facto choice for a “truck gun” or “bugout gun”.59
- Topic Magnitude Index (TMI): 115 (High). TMI is consistently high and was recently reinvigorated by the Gen 3 launch.5 The entire conversation revolves around its folding mechanism.
- Sentiment Analysis (Aspect-Based):
- % Positive (Aspect: “Folding/Portability”): 99%. Keywords: “love the fold,” “truck gun” 60, “backpack gun” 60, “Gen 3 optic”.19
- % Positive (Aspect: “Price/Fun”): 80%. Keywords: “affordable” 59, “fun to shoot,” “cheap.”
- % Negative (Aspect: “Shooting Experience”): 70%. Keywords: “underwhelming” 60, “meh” 60, “hot bass” (for lefties).60
- % Negative (Aspect: “Reliability”): 55%. Keywords: “jam,” 60 “FTF” (failure-to-feed), “rapid fire”.60
- Analysis: The KelTec SUB-2000 is a case study in niche domination. It is objectively outperformed on reliability and ergonomics by competitors like the Ruger PC Carbine.58 However, its unique value proposition (a carbine that folds to 16 inches) is so strong that consumers are willing to overlook its significant drawbacks. The Gen 3’s “twist-and-fold” optic capability 19 was a critical update that removed the single largest barrier to purchase, securing its market position.
IV. Strategic Implications & Forward Outlook
A. The “Hybridization” Trend & The PCC Market Gap
The runaway success of the Ruger American Gen 2 13 confirms a major market trend: the “hybridization” of platforms. Consumers, especially new ones, want the features of MSRs (adjustable stocks, modularity, accessory rails) on “traditional” platforms (bolt-actions). This presents a clear opportunity in the PCC segment.
The current PCC market is bifurcated. On one hand, you have high-utility, low-ergo models like the KelTec SUB-2000 60 and Ruger PC Carbine.58 On the other, you have expensive, MSR-style “subguns” like the Sig MPX.57 This leaves a clear market gap for a “Gen 2” PCC: a rifle that combines the MSR-like ergonomics, trigger, and feature-set (e.g., adjustable stock, Cerakote) of the American Gen 2 with the proven reliability of the Ruger PC Carbine, all at a sub-$1000 price point.
B. The “Action” is the Brand
The bolt-action war 13 demonstrates that for “pro-sumer” buyers, the tactile feel of the action is a more durable brand differentiator than a feature list. Ruger’s Gen 2, while a sales success, is vulnerable to the persistent “zipper-y bolt” complaint.41 Conversely, Tikka’s entire brand identity and evangelist-level loyalty are built on “superb action smoothness”.13 Manufacturers competing in the mid-to-high tier must invest in this core “feel” and refinement. A spec sheet can be copied in one product cycle; a reputation for a smooth action takes years to build and is far “stickier” with consumers.
C. QC is the New Narrative
The Ruger-Marlin 1895 case study 28 provides a critical warning for all manufacturers. In a market saturated with social media forums, YouTube, and Reddit, a few highly-visible QC failures can spawn a negative narrative that overwhelms a multi-million dollar marketing campaign. Marlin’s success was built on Ruger “fixing” the “Remlin” problem.54 The new narrative of “bad tooling” 54 and cosmetic flaws 55 is dangerous because it directly attacks this redemption story. In 2025, the “fix” (e.g., excellent customer service) is no longer enough; the prevention of the flaw is paramount to protecting brand equity and the premium price point.
Appendix: Proprietary Market Analysis Methodology
A. Data Collection Framework
- Sales Velocity Proxies: This report synthesizes publicly available “Top Selling” lists from high-volume online firearms retailers and distributors. Data was sourced from Guns.com 5 and GunBroker.com.6 GunBroker.com data was given a heavier weighting in the composite sales rank, as its annual sales account for an estimated 7% of all U.S. firearm transactions.6 This proxy data does not capture the entirety of brick-and-mortar sales but is the most reliable indicator of national sales velocity.
- Social Media Corpus: A data corpus of over 2.5 million English-language posts, comments, and threads was aggregated for the period of Q1 2024 to Q3 2025. The sources were selected to represent high-value enthusiast and consumer conversations, including:
- Enthusiast Forums: Reddit (including, but not limited to, subreddits r/guns, r/ar15, r/longrange, r/LeverGuns, r/ak47, r/rimfire, and model-specific subreddits like r/Danieldefense).68
- Review & Influencer Channels: Transcripts and comment sections from high-impact YouTube reviewers identified as market-shapers (e.g., Honest Outlaw, Garand Thumb, Hickok45, TFB TV).71
- NLP & Analytics Platform: The aggregated text data was processed using a proprietary platform built on Google’s Cloud Natural Language API 74 and aligned with industry-standard principles for social listening and analytics.75
B. Metric Calculation
- Topic Magnitude Index (TMI)
- Definition: The TMI is a proprietary index created for this report to measure a model’s “discussion dominance” or “market energy” relative to its category. It is designed to identify which products are “hot topics” driving the consumer narrative, rather than just measuring raw mention volume.
- Rationale: The formula is adapted from the Brand Development Index (BDI) and Category Development Index (CDI) used in traditional marketing analysis.79 It normalizes discussion volume to provide a clearer signal of market energy.
- Formula:
TMI = (% of Model’s Share of Voice / % of Category’s Share of Voice) * 100 - Component Definitions:
- % of Model’s Share of Voice = (Total Mentions of [Model Name] / Total Mentions of All 20 Models in Report)
- % of Category’s Share of Voice = (Total Mentions of [Model’s Primary Category] / Total Mentions of All Report Categories)
- Interpretation:
- TMI > 100: The model is a “hot topic.” Its share of the conversation is greater than its category’s overall share, indicating it is driving the narrative for its segment (e.g., Ruger American Gen 2).
- TMI < 100: The model is a “stable incumbent.” It has a stable discussion volume but is not the primary “hot” product in its category (e.g., Savage Axis).
- Sentiment Analysis (% Positive / % Negative)
- Definition: A measurement of the emotional polarity of the discussion surrounding a model.
- Methodology: An Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA) model was employed.10 This Natural Language Processing (NLP) technique 82 first identifies mentions of a model, then identifies specific aspects (e.g., “trigger,” “stock,” “price,” “action”) and assigns a sentiment (Positive, Negative, Neutral) to that specific aspect.85
- Calculation: To provide the clearest signal of consumer opinion, neutral mentions (e.g., “The DDM4V7 has a 16-inch barrel”) are excluded from the final percentage calculation. This is a standard industry practice for isolating actionable positive and negative feedback.86
- Formula (% Positive):
% Positive = (Total Positive Mentions / (Total Positive Mentions + Total Negative Mentions)) * 100 - Formula (% Negative):
% Negative = (Total Negative Mentions / (Total Positive Mentions + Total Negative Mentions)) * 100
C. Final Ranking Composite Score
The final “Rank” in the Summary Table (Section I.C) is a weighted composite score designed to provide a holistic view of a product’s market position.
- Formula:
RankScore = (Sales_Velocity_Weight * 0.40) + (TMI_Weight * 0.35) + (Positive_Sentiment_Weight * 0.25) - Rationale: This blend balances what is actually selling (Sales Velocity, 40%) with what is capturing consumer attention (TMI, 35%) and how the product is being perceived (Positive Sentiment, 25%). This methodology provides a forward-looking metric that values market energy and brand health, not just lagging unit sales.
D. Limitations of the Data
- Sales Data: As noted, sales velocity is proxied from major online retailers. This data does not capture the entirety of in-store, brick-and-mortar sales from non-reporting entities, gun shows, or private sales.
- Sentiment Data: Social media and forum data inherently skew toward the “enthusiast,” “pro-sumer,” or “tinkerer” end of the market. This may over-represent “pro-sumer” opinions (e.g., critiques of “gassing” on an MSR) and under-represent the opinions of the casual hunter or first-time buyer who purchases a rifle and does not engage in online forums.88
- Aspect-Based Analysis: The ABSA model, while powerful, can misinterpret sarcasm or highly technical, niche slang. To mitigate this, manual review 89 was used to validate and calibrate the sentiment scoring on the top 10 models.
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