Analytics and Reports, US Small Arms Market Analytics

Shot Show 2026: What People Say They Must See on Day One

The 2026 SHOT Show arrives at a moment of unprecedented structural transformation for the small arms industry. While every annual exhibition promises innovation, the 2026 iteration is distinct, defined not merely by incremental product updates but by a radical alteration of the regulatory and liability landscape that has governed the American firearms market for nearly a century. The defining context for this year’s show—and the lens through which all analyst evaluations must be filtered—is the elimination of the $200 federal tax stamp for National Firearms Act (NFA) items, specifically suppressors and Short-Barreled Rifles (SBRs), effective January 1, 2026.1 This legislative upheaval, passed as part of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” in July 2025, has instantaneously converted what was once a low-volume, high-margin enthusiast niche into a mass-market commodity sector.2

Consequently, the floor of the Venetian Expo and Caesars Forum will be dominated by manufacturers who have successfully pivoted their production lines to meet this new “commodity suppression” reality. Industry giants like SilencerCo, HUXWRX, and Franklin Armory are not just presenting new SKUs; they are presenting entirely new business models predicated on high-volume, over-the-counter accessibility for noise reduction and compact rifle platforms. The era of the “pistol brace” workaround is effectively over; the era of the factory SBR has begun.

Parallel to this regulatory liberation is a countervailing trend of defensive engineering. The industry is responding to an increasingly litigious environment and the proliferation of illegal conversion devices (auto-sears or “switches”) with significant design changes. The most prominent example is the rumored and highly anticipated Glock V-Series (Gen 6), which introduces a fundamental redesign of the internal trigger geometry specifically to inhibit the installation of such illicit devices.5 This signals a new phase of “liability-proof” design, where major OEMs leverage engineering to insulate themselves from legal and political pressure.

Furthermore, 2026 marks the maturity of the “integral compensator” as a standard feature rather than a custom-shop modification. Driven by the saturation of magazine capacity in micro-compacts, manufacturers like Sig Sauer, Shadow Systems, and Smith & Wesson are now competing on “shootability”—using physics to tame the recoil of sub-compact 9mm frames. This “Year of the Comp” sees porting and expansion chambers moving from the race gun world to the everyday carry (EDC) holster.

Finally, the digitization of the optical ecosystem continues its relentless march. We are witnessing the death of the standalone “dumb” optic. The new standard, exemplified by releases from Holosun and Sig Sauer, involves the convergence of aiming, ranging, and thermal imaging technologies into single, compact footprints. The boundary between a red dot sight and a fire control system is dissolving.

The following report provides an exhaustive analysis of the top 20 “must-see” products and vendors for Day 1 of SHOT Show 2026. These selections are derived from a synthesis of distributor communications, leaked specifications, pre-show press releases, and social media sentiment analysis. They represent the highest-leverage opportunities for analysts to gauge the direction of the market in this new regulatory era.

Day 1 “Must See” Intelligence Summary

RankVendorProductCategoryPrimary “Must See” Driver
01GlockV-Series (Gen 6)PistolIndustry Shift: Radical internal redesign to prevent “switch” conversion; breaks legacy compatibility.5
02Sig SauerP365-FUSEPistolTrend Leader: Redefines “Crossover” carry with 4.3″ barrel and 21-round standard capacity.7
03SilencerCoScythe-STM / S98SuppressorNFA Boom: Titanium/Stainless modular options perfectly timed for tax stamp repeal.9
04HUXWRXFLOW 556/762 TiSuppressorTech Leap: 3D-printed flow-through technology now fully mature and full-auto rated.10
05BerettaAX800 SupremaShotgunInnovation: New B-Link Pro gas system (36% faster) and polymer receiver construction.12
06Shadow SystemsCR920P ElitePistolTrend Leader: The benchmark for the “integral compensator” subcompact trend.14
07RugerRed Label IIIShotgunLegacy Revival: Return of the cult-classic O/U, now manufactured by CSMC. High-end pivot.16
08Smith & WessonShield X Carry CompPistolMass Market: Bringing ported/compensated performance to the high-volume Shield platform.18
09FN AmericaFN 309 MRDPistolMarket Disruption: Aggressive $549 price point targeting the budget/utility Glock market.20
10HolosunARO-EVO-DUALOpticsTech Convergence: Integrated VIS/IR laser and thermal fusion in a reflex sight footprint.22
11Dead AirLazarus 6SuppressorMaterial Science: Use of Haynes 282 superalloy and Triskelion baffle geometry.24
12StaccatoHD C3.6PistolDuty Grade: Bringing the 2011 platform down to a true, durable carry size with an alloy frame.26
13Daniel DefenseDD4 Expansion (RIII)RifleRefinement: Standardization of fully ambidextrous lowers and RIS III rail systems.28
14Vortex OpticsDefender-XL 2 MOAOpticsCompetition: Addressing shooter demand for precision dots in the large-window format.29
15RugerHarrier SeriesRifleProduct Refresh: A modern, Hebron-made evolution of the AR-556 with mid-length gas systems.31
16TaurusGX4 Strike BravoPistolCollaboration: Factory integration of Strike Industries folding stabilizers; innovative budget PDW.33
17Franklin ArmoryF22-VRifle/PistolNFA Strategy: Integrally suppressed.22LR leveraging the new $0 tax stamp environment.35
18SteyrATd / ATc SeriesPistolEngineering: Modular chassis system separating the fire control unit from the grip/frame.36
19MagpulUCS StockAccessorySolution: Universal Carbine Stock solving the interface issues for 1913-railed firearms.38
20NightforceNX6 FamilyOpticsPrecision: Expansion of the 6-36×56 F1 dominant scope line with Digillum technology.40

The Regulatory Pivot: The End of the Tax Stamp

The backdrop for SHOT Show 2026 is arguably the most significant legislative event in the modern history of the American firearms industry: the effective repeal of the financial barrier to NFA ownership. While the National Firearms Act of 1934 remains the governing law, the passage of the budget reconciliation bill—referred to as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBB) signed on July 4, 2025—eliminated the $200 federal excise tax on suppressors, Short-Barreled Rifles (SBRs), Short-Barreled Shotguns (SBSs), and Any Other Weapons (AOWs) as of January 1, 2026.2

This change cannot be overstated. For nearly a century, the $200 tax stamp acted as a massive friction point, often doubling the cost of entry-level suppressors and adding a layer of bureaucratic resentment to the purchasing process. With the cost of transfer now effectively $0 (though the ATF Form 4 and background check remain), the market dynamics have shifted overnight from a “luxury/enthusiast” model to a “commodity/utility” model.3

Industry analysts project a surge in demand that will likely outstrip supply for the first two quarters of 2026. The “wait time” for approvals, which had been trending downward due to eForms, is expected to spike purely due to the volume of applications.2 However, the long-term implication is the normalization of suppressed fire. Much like in the UK or New Zealand, where suppressors are treated as polite safety devices rather than nefarious tools, the US market is pivoting toward “hearing safe” shooting as the baseline standard.

SilencerCo: Mastering the Volume Game

SilencerCo, based in West Valley City, Utah, appears most prepared to capitalize on this volume surge. Their strategy for SHOT Show 2026 relies on a “Good, Better, Best” segmentation that acknowledges the new influx of price-sensitive buyers while retaining their premium base.

The Scythe-STM is a critical release in this context. Following the success of the Scythe-Ti (Titanium), the STM (Stainless Modular) version addresses the primary drawback of titanium: heat sensitivity under rapid fire. By utilizing stainless steel, SilencerCo has created a suppressor that is robust enough for heavy training schedules—a “duty grade” option for the new SBR owners created by the tax repeal—while maintaining the modular length configurability that consumers love.9

Simultaneously, the S98 represents a renewed focus on the handgun market. While rifle suppressors have historically dominated sales, the S98 is an all-titanium pistol suppressor that revives the eccentric (offset) design philosophy of the legendary Osprey. By welding the titanium body, SilencerCo achieves a strength-to-weight ratio that makes the can feel negligible on the end of a pistol.9 This is a product designed for the “everyman” carrier who now sees no reason not to own a suppressor for their home defense handgun.

HUXWRX: The Triumph of Flow-Through

If SilencerCo is winning on accessibility, HUXWRX (formerly OSS) is claiming the high ground on technology. The FLOW 556 Ti and FLOW 762 Ti represent the maturation of their “Flow-Through” technology. For years, traditional baffle stacks trapped gas, increasing backpressure, fouling the weapon, and venting toxic fumes into the shooter’s face. HUXWRX’s design vents gas forward through complex helical channels.10

The critical advancement for 2026 is the full industrialization of their 3D-printing (DLMS – Direct Metal Laser Sintering) capability. These internal geometries are impossible to machine; they must be grown. The fact that the FLOW series is now “Full Auto Rated” and passing USSOCOM reliability stress tests 42 silences the lingering skepticism regarding the durability of printed titanium. For the new wave of SBR owners running short, high-pressure gas systems, the low-backpressure FLOW series solves the “tuning” headache (changing buffers, adjustable gas blocks) that usually accompanies suppression.

Dead Air: Material Science as a Differentiator

Dead Air Silencers is taking a different tack with the Lazarus 6, focusing on exotic material science. The Lazarus 6 is constructed from Haynes 282, a wrought, gamma-prime strengthened superalloy originally developed for aerospace gas turbine engines.25

This material choice is significant. Suppressors fail due to heat and pressure cycling. Haynes 282 offers exceptional creep strength and thermal stability at temperatures where 17-4 stainless steel or Inconel 718 might begin to degrade. Combined with their “Triskelion” baffle geometry 24, Dead Air is pitching the Lazarus 6 as the “hard use” king—a suppressor that can handle the punishing firing schedules of short-barreled 6mm ARC or 5.56 NATO rifles without the weight penalty of traditional Stellite or Inconel cores.

The Rise of the Factory SBR

The tax stamp repeal has also decimated the market for “pistol braces.” With the legal and financial distinction between a braced pistol and an SBR effectively nullified (save for the registration paperwork), manufacturers are rushing to offer factory SBRs. Franklin Armory is leading this charge with the F22-V, an integrally suppressed.22LR platform available as a factory SBR.35 Similarly, Palmetto State Armory (PSA) is expanding its JAKL line into SBR configurations.44 The “pistol” variants of these rifles, once the best-selling SKUs, are likely to be phased out in favor of stock-equipped SBRs, providing shooters with better ergonomics and stability without the “loophole” stigma.

The Battle for the Duty Holster: Handgun Innovations

While the suppressor market booms, the handgun market is entrenched in a battle for the “duty” and “carry” sectors. The themes here are clear: liability reduction, capacity maximization, and integral recoil management.

The Liability Fortress: Glock V-Series (Gen 6)

The most discussed product at SHOT Show 2026 is undoubtedly the Glock V-Series, widely referred to as Gen 6. This release is unique because it is driven not by consumer demand for features, but by a corporate imperative for legal defense. The proliferation of illegal auto-sears (commonly known as “switches”) has led to lawsuits from multiple jurisdictions against Glock, alleging that their design is too easily converted to machine gun fire.6

The V-Series (likely “V” for the Roman numeral five, indicating an evolution, though effectively a new generation) introduces a radical redesign of the slide backplate assembly and trigger housing mechanism.5 The internal geometry has been altered to physically block the engagement surface that auto-sears rely on to trip the striker.

This is a “burn the boats” moment for Glock. The V-Series is confirmed to be incompatible with the current Glock Performance Trigger (GPT) and the vast majority of Gen 5 aftermarket parts.5 This breaks the backward compatibility that has been central to the Glock ecosystem. However, for law enforcement agencies and risk-averse distributors, the “anti-conversion” feature is a massive selling point. It allows departments to procure new weapons while demonstrating due diligence in preventing misuse.

The lineup is extensive: G17 V, G19 V, G26 V, G45 V, and notably, the immediate availability of G20 V (10mm) and G21 V (.45 ACP) in MOS configurations.5 This suggests Glock is rapidly cycling its entire catalog to this new standard to sunset the “convertible” generations as quickly as possible.

The Crossover King: Sig Sauer P365-FUSE

While Glock plays defense, Sig Sauer is aggressively expanding the definition of “concealable.” The P365-FUSE is a category-bending firearm. By mating the ultra-thin (1.1 inch) profile of the P365 with a full-length 4.3-inch barrel and a grip module that accepts flush-fit 17-round and extended 21-round magazines, Sig has created a “Crossover” that renders many mid-sized pistols obsolete.7

The logic is sound: the hardest part of a gun to conceal is the grip width, not the length. The FUSE keeps the gun thin but maximizes the shootable surface area (grip length and sight radius). The 21-round capacity as a standard offering is a direct challenge to the industry standard of 15 or 17 rounds for duty guns. With the “LXG” laser-engraved grip texture and a removable magwell, the FUSE is positioned not just as a defensive tool but as a “competition-ready” micro—a paradox that Sig is successfully normalizing.

Disruption from Below: FN 309 MRD

In a surprise move, FN America has launched the FN 309 MRD, targeting the budget-conscious institutional and civilian market with an MSRP of $549.20 This is a strategic pivot for a brand associated with the premium-priced SCAR and FN 509 Tactical lines.

The 309 MRD is designed to be a “Glock 19 killer” for the utility buyer. It features a 16-round flush capacity (with 20-round extended options), an optics-ready slide (sharing the DeltaPoint Pro/Shield RMS footprint), and an internal hammer-fired single-action trigger.46 The internal hammer offers a distinct trigger feel—typically cleaner and lighter than a striker—which FN is betting will appeal to shooters who struggle with the “mushy” feel of budget striker guns. Furthermore, FN explicitly markets the “reduced slide racking force” and “easier to load magazines” 46, signaling a direct play for the demographic of new shooters, seniors, and those with lower hand strength—a massive, under-served market segment.

The Integral Compensator Trend: Shadow Systems & S&W

The “Year of the Comp” has arrived. As micro-compacts became smaller and lighter, they became harder to shoot effectively. The solution for 2026 is the integral compensator.

Shadow Systems has refined this with the CR920P Elite. Unlike older designs that threaded a compensator onto the barrel (adding length and legal complexity), the CR920P uses a proprietary lug system where the compensator attaches directly to the slide and barrel, creating a seamless, monolithic top end. This keeps the overall length short enough to fit in open-ended G48 holsters.14 The compensator directs gas upward, forcing the muzzle down and allowing for faster follow-up shots. For a sub-18-ounce gun, this physics-based recoil reduction is transformative.15

Smith & Wesson brings this technology to the masses with the Performance Center M&P Shield X Carry Comp. The Shield is the Honda Civic of carry guns—reliable, ubiquitous, and affordable. By adding the “PowerPort” system (a port in the barrel and slide at the 12 o’clock position) 18, Smith & Wesson is democratizing recoil control. This is no longer a $2,000 race gun feature; it is now available on a sub-$700 carry pistol. The “Clear Sight Cut” diverts gas away from the optic lens 47, addressing the common complaint that ported guns foul red dot sights.

Staccato & Steyr: Premium Niches

At the high end, Staccato continues to shrink the 2011 platform. The Staccato HD C3.6 brings the double-stack 1911 into a true carry footprint with a 3.6-inch barrel and an alloy frame, weighing in at just 27 ounces.26 This bridges the gap between the competition-focused XL models and the carry-focused CS models, offering “duty grade” durability in a concealable package.

Meanwhile, Steyr is innovating with the ATd (Defense) and ATc (Competition) pistols. These feature a modular chassis system similar to the Sig P320, where the serialized fire control unit can be swapped between grip frames.36 Steyr is aiming for the connoisseur market, offering all-steel frames for competition and alloy for carry, with a focus on extremely low bore axis and modularity.

The Renaissance of the Rifle and Shotgun

While handguns dominate the volume, long guns are seeing a resurgence of high-quality manufacturing and distinct branding pivots.

Ruger’s Strategic bifurcation

Ruger is executing a fascinating two-pronged strategy. On one end, they are reviving the Red Label nameplate with the Red Label III.16 However, this is not a budget casting; it is a premium Over/Under manufactured in partnership with the Connecticut Shotgun Manufacturing Company (CSMC). With an MSRP of $3,299 49, Ruger is abandoning the “working man’s O/U” market to Turkish imports and is instead challenging Beretta and Browning in the heirloom quality tier. This is a brand elevation play, leveraging the nostalgia for the Red Label name to enter the luxury market.

Simultaneously, Ruger is refreshing its bread-and-butter AR-15 line with the Harrier Series.31 Manufactured at their new Hebron, KY facility (formerly the Anderson Manufacturing plant), the Harrier represents a modernization of the AR-556. The shift to a mid-length gas system on a 16-inch barrel is the key detail here.32 Enthusiasts have long preferred mid-length systems for their smoother recoil impulse compared to the sharper carbine-length gas. Ruger’s adoption of this standard demonstrates a responsiveness to the “pro-sumer” market that demands better shootability out of the box.

Beretta’s Material Innovation

Beretta continues to push the envelope with the AX800 Suprema. This 12-gauge waterfowl shotgun challenges the traditionalist preference for metal and wood by utilizing a high-tech polymer receiver.12 In the brutal environment of a duck blind—saltwater, mud, freezing rain—polymer offers superior corrosion resistance and durability compared to steel or aluminum.

Mechanically, the AX800 introduces the B-Link Pro gas system, which Beretta claims cycles 36% faster than previous iterations.13 Speed is a critical marketing metric in the semiauto shotgun world (often dominated by Benelli’s inertia guns), and Beretta is aiming to close that gap while retaining the recoil-softening benefits of a gas-operated system.

Daniel Defense & PSA: Refinement vs. Expansion

Daniel Defense is focusing on refinement with the DD4 Expansion (RIII). The primary update is the standardization of fully ambidextrous lower receivers across the line.28 In a market where “ambi” is becoming a requirement rather than a luxury, this keeps the DD4 relevant against competitors like LMT and Radian. The RIS III rail system, which brings M-LOK compatibility to their legendary bolt-up robust design, is now the standard bearer for their “hard use” reputation.

Palmetto State Armory (PSA), acting as the industry’s populist disruptor, is expanding the JAKL and Sabre lines. The JAKL, a long-stroke piston monobloc bufferless system, is perfectly positioned for the post-brace SBR market. PSA is also teasing the PSA 570, a modular pump-action shotgun concept that promises high customization potential 51, further signaling their intent to dominate every entry-level category.

The Digital Horizon: Optics and Electronics

The days of the passive glass optic are numbered. The 2026 trend is “fusion”—the integration of multiple sensors and data streams into a single aiming device.

Holosun’s Integration Play

Holosun continues to out-innovate legacy brands with the ARO-EVO-DUAL.22 This device is a conceptual breakthrough: it integrates a Visible Laser and an Infrared (IR) Laser directly into the housing of a reflex sight.

Traditionally, a night vision shooter needs a red dot (for day/passive aiming) and a separate LAM (Laser Aiming Module) like a PEQ-15 or DBAL (for active IR aiming). This requires rail space, adds weight, and requires zeroing two different devices. The ARO-EVO-DUAL consolidates this “Tech Stack” into one unit. By slaving the lasers to the red dot’s zero, the user only needs to zero the optic once. For the booming civilian night vision market, this is a massive quality-of-life improvement that reduces the cost and complexity of setting up a night-fighting rifle.

Smart Ballistics: Sig Sauer & Revic

Sig Sauer’s Bravo6T-BDX and Revic’s Radikl RS25b 53 represent the next generation of “Smart Scopes.” These optics feature internal ballistic calculators and environmental sensors. The Bravo6T-BDX uses Sig’s “LevelPlex” and BDX (Ballistic Data Xchange) technology to project the correct holdover point onto the reticle based on the range to target. The shooter no longer needs to consult a dope card or do mental math; the scope does the physics. This lowers the skill floor for long-range engagement significantly, making 800-yard shots accessible to hunters who previously capped their ethical range at 300 yards.

Vortex & Nightforce: Refining the Analog

While others digitize, Vortex and Nightforce are perfecting the analog experience.

The Vortex Defender-XL 2 MOA is a direct response to competition shooter feedback.30 The original Defender-XL launched with 5 and 8 MOA dots—great for speed, but poor for precision on distant steel plates. The release of a 2 MOA version shows Vortex’s agility in listening to the USPSA/Carry Optics crowd who demanded a finer aiming point in the large-window format.

Nightforce expands its dominance with the NX6 Family, specifically the 6-36×56 F1.41 This scope has rapidly become the gold standard for PRS competition due to its massive magnification range and optical clarity. The addition of Digillum (digital reticle illumination) allows for multiple reticle colors and intensities, adapting to changing light conditions better than traditional analog rheostats.

Accessories & Critical Components

The Stock Interface Revolution: Magpul UCS

It may seem minor, but the Magpul UCS (Universal Carbine Stock) is a critical infrastructure update for the industry.38 As the AR-15 market diversifies into bufferless systems (Sig MCX, BRN-180, PSA JAKL), the traditional buffer tube is no longer necessary for function, yet it remains the primary way to attach a stock. The UCS provides a high-quality, adjustable, folding stock solution that mounts directly to a vertical 1913 Picatinny rail. This interface is rapidly becoming the “USB-C” of the gun world—a universal standard for stock attachment. Magpul’s entry validates this standard and provides a reasonably priced, durable option for the thousands of “braced pistols” that are now being converted to SBRs.

Stability Supremacy: MDT CKYE-POD Gen 3

In the precision world, the bipod is a critical interface. MDT’s CKYE-POD has long been the favorite of top competitors for its unmatched adjustability. The Gen 3 update focuses on the deployment mechanism, introducing a “Single Pull” leg adjustment.55 In a timed competition stage, saving 2-3 seconds on bipod deployment can be the difference between winning and losing. This refinement cements MDT’s position at the top of the PRS hardware food chain.

As the doors open on Day 1, three macro-trends are clear:

  1. The “Post-NFA” Economy is Here: The repeal of the tax stamp has unleashed a torrent of innovation and demand. Suppressors are no longer lifetime investments; they are consumables. Manufacturers who can scale production (SilencerCo, PSA) will win the volume war, while those who innovate on tech (HUXWRX, Dead Air) will capture the enthusiasts.
  2. Liability is Driving Design: Glock’s V-Series proves that legal threats are now shaping product engineering as much as consumer demand. We can expect other manufacturers to follow suit with “tamper-evident” or “tamper-resistant” designs to protect themselves from the regulatory spotlight.
  3. The Integration of Systems: Whether it’s the compensator integrated into the slide (Shadow Systems) or the laser integrated into the optic (Holosun), the trend is toward consolidation. Shooters want fewer points of failure, less weight, and streamlined setups.

The 2026 SHOT Show is not just a showcase of new products; it is a showcase of a new industry paradigm—one that is faster, quieter, and more technologically integrated than ever before.

Appendix: Methodology

This report was compiled using a multi-source intelligence gathering approach focused on pre-show announcements, distributor leaks, and manufacturer releases available as of January 15, 2026.

  1. Data Aggregation: We analyzed 204 unique data snippets 57 ranging from official press releases (Sig Sauer, Glock, Ruger) to social media sentiment (Reddit, YouTube comments) and retailer listings (GunBroker, MidwayUSA).
  2. Trend Synthesis: Individual product announcements were grouped into macro-categories (NFA, Optics, Pistols) to identify overriding industry trends rather than isolated product launches.
  3. Verification: “Rumors” (e.g., Glock V-Series, CZ Shadow 3) were cross-referenced against multiple independent sources (forum chatter + filed patents or retailer placeholder pages) to assign a confidence interval. Only products with high confidence of Day 1 presence were included in the “Must See” list.
  4. Exclusion Criteria: Products that were mere re-colors or minor SKU updates without functional changes were excluded to prioritize genuine innovation. Visuals were generated strictly from confirmed data points within the source material.

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