Analytics and Reports, Rifle Analytics, US Small Arms Market Analytics

Shot Show 2026 Preview – Rifles

The 2026 Shooting, Hunting, and Outdoor Trade (SHOT) Show in Las Vegas, Nevada, represents a watershed moment for the global small arms industry, marking the definitive transition from a speculative “Post-NFA” optimism to a tangible manufacturing reality. As industry professionals gather at the Venetian Expo and Caesars Forum from January 20 through January 23, 2026, the overarching narrative is not merely one of product iteration, but of fundamental platform evolution driven by the most significant legislative deregulation in nearly a century. The effective elimination of the $200 National Firearms Act (NFA) tax stamp for suppressors and short-barreled rifles (SBRs), which commenced on January 1, 2026, has acted as a massive accelerant for research and development pipelines that were previously constrained by regulatory friction. This legislative catalyst has unleashed a torrent of innovation where signature reduction and compact weapon systems are no longer treated as niche, regulated novelties, but as standard, mass-market expectations.

For the defense analyst, institutional investor, and procurement officer, SHOT Show 2026 offers a distinct signal: the industry is pivoting toward “systems integration” over piecemeal accessory attachment. We are witnessing the maturation of the “Tactical Lever-Action” from a custom-shop curiosity into a dominant market segment, capable of rivaling semi-automatic platforms in restricted jurisdictions. Simultaneously, the “Caliber Wars” have shifted away from the 6.5mm Creedmoor’s previous hegemony toward the hyper-efficient Advanced Rifle Cartridge (ARC) family, specifically the 22 ARC and 6mm ARC, which are rapidly displacing legacy varmint and intermediate cartridges across both bolt-action and gas-operated platforms. The show floor buzz is dominated by the convergence of high-tech manufacturing—exemplified by Knight’s Armament Company’s (KAC) commercial release of the KS-1 and the electromagnetic propulsion advancements of Arcflash Labs—with a nostalgic yet modernized aesthetic that sees heritage brands like Marlin and Smith & Wesson aggressively competing for the “modern cowboy” demographic.

The market landscape in 2026 is defined by the intersection of deregulation, aesthetic nostalgia, and ballistic efficiency. The elimination of the financial and bureaucratic barriers to suppressor ownership has forced manufacturers to prioritize barrel concentricity, adjustable gas systems, and integrated mounting solutions as baseline features rather than premium upgrades. Furthermore, the resurgence of the lever-action rifle, now infused with AR-15 modularity and magazine compatibility, highlights a strategic industry response to the bifurcated regulatory environment of the United States, offering compliant firepower without sacrificing tactical utility. As detailed in the subsequent sections, this year’s “must-see” platforms are those that successfully navigate this complex matrix of legal permissibility, ballistic performance, and consumer desire for professional-grade hardware.

Summary of Expected Major Announcements – SHOT Show 2026

ManufacturerModel / PlatformMarket SegmentKey Differentiators & Strategic ImpactBuzz Factor
Bond ArmsLVRB (Lever Action)Tactical / ComplianceRadical departure from tube-fed designs; utilizes AR-15 magazines and a rotating bolt; high compatibility with modern defensive protocols.Very High
Knight’s ArmamentKS-1 (Civilian Spec)High-End TacticalCommercial release of the UK Special Forces “Project Hunter” rifle; features 13.7″ dimpled barrel and URX6 rail; sets new benchmark for DI reliability.Critical
Palmetto State ArmoryJakl 2.0Budget Piston / UtilityAddresses weight distribution issues of Gen 1; introduces ambi-bolt catch and re-contoured ergonomics; democratizes long-stroke piston tech.High
Palmetto State ArmorySabre AR-VCompetitive PCCIntroduces Roller-Delayed Blowback (RDB) to the budget sector; disrupts the pricing structure for MP5-style recoil mitigation.High
SIG SauerMCX RegulatorRanch / Defense“Featureless” configuration of the MCX Spear; compatible with Mossberg 590 stocks; bridges the gap between traditional sporters and tactical modularity.High
Smith & WessonModel 1854 SeriesModern Lever ActionAggressive expansion into.360 Buckhammer and tactical.30-30 configurations; direct challenger to Marlin’s market dominance.High
Daniel DefenseHVM & ISR Gen 2Tactical / DutyRumored “High Velocity Modular” platform; expanded integrally suppressed (ISR) line leveraging new NFA environment.High
Savage Arms110 Magpul ScoutPrecision / UtilityFirst major OEM adoption of 22 ARC and 6mm ARC in a Scout configuration; leverages new Magpul furniture for enhanced ergonomics.Moderate
Arcflash LabsEMG-02Future TechSecond-generation handheld coilgun; significantly increased joule output and cycle rate; moves closer to viable kinetic utility.Niche/High
RugerAmerican Gen II PrairieVarmint / Huntingdedicated high-velocity varmint platform optimized for 22 ARC; targets the coyote/predator market with precision upgrades.Moderate

1. The Macro-Environment: The Post-NFA Paradigm Shift

The context for SHOT Show 2026 cannot be overstated: the industry is operating in the first fiscal quarter of a “Zero-Stamp” reality. The legislative repeal of the $200 transfer tax for National Firearms Act (NFA) items, specifically suppressors and short-barreled rifles (SBRs), has fundamentally altered the economic calculus of firearm design and ownership.1 For nearly nine decades, the NFA tax stamp acted as a significant artificial barrier to entry, relegating suppressors to a luxury accessory category and SBRs to a dedicated enthusiast niche. With this barrier removed, manufacturers are scrambling to restructure their product lines to meet a demand curve that has shifted from linear growth to exponential explosion.

1.1 The Suppressor “Gold Rush” and Inventory Dynamics

The immediate impact of the tax repeal is a supply-side shock that industry analysts have termed the “Suppressor Gold Rush”.1 The elimination of the $200 penalty, combined with the streamlining of the e-Forms approval process—which now processes applications in days rather than months—has created a consumer environment where the purchase of a suppressor is as frictionless as purchasing a standard firearm. Consequently, we are witnessing a massive proliferation of new market entrants. Legacy manufacturers like SilencerCo, Dead Air, and HuxWrx are being joined by a wave of startups and established firearm OEMs bringing suppressor manufacturing in-house to capture margin.

The market is seeing a bifurcation in pricing strategies. On one end, there is a race to the bottom, with a flood of “entry-level” cans priced under $500, designed to capture the first-time buyer who was previously deterred by the combined cost of the unit and the tax stamp. On the other end, premium manufacturers are leveraging the increased volume to fund R&D into exotic materials and advanced flow-through technologies that minimize backpressure—a critical feature as suppressors become standard issue rather than optional add-ons.3 The implications for retailers are profound; shelf space previously dedicated to muzzle brakes and flash hiders is being aggressively reclaimed for suppressor inventory, and “integrally suppressed” SKUs are being prioritized in distributor allocations.

1.2 The Normalization of the Short-Barreled Rifle (SBR)

Perhaps more transformative than the suppressor boom is the normalization of the Short-Barreled Rifle. Prior to 2026, the 16-inch barrel was the de facto industry standard not because of ballistics, but because of bureaucratic compliance. With the SBR tax eliminated, the artificial adherence to the 16-inch length requirement is evaporating for the civilian market. Manufacturers are now free to optimize barrel lengths for specific cartridges without forcing the customer to navigate a legal minefield.

This shift is most visible in the proliferation of factory-configured 11.5-inch, 12.5-inch, and 13.7-inch rifles. These lengths, widely considered the “sweet spot” for the 5.56mm NATO cartridge in terms of dwell time and maneuverability, are now being offered as standard catalog items rather than “pistol” configurations with stabilizing braces. The “pistol brace” era, a workaround born of regulation, is effectively ending, replaced by properly stocked SBRs that offer superior ergonomics and recoil control. This trend is heavily influencing the offerings from companies like Daniel Defense, LMT Defense, and Knight’s Armament, all of whom are showcasing “Factory SBR” lines at SHOT Show 2026 as primary commercial offerings rather than restricted law-enforcement-only (LEO) items.2

1.3 The Manufacturing Pivot: From “Suppressor Ready” to “Suppressor Optimized”

The third pillar of this paradigm shift is the change in engineering philosophy. In the pre-repeal era, rifles were marketed as “suppressor ready,” which typically meant nothing more than having a threaded barrel. In the 2026 landscape, “suppressor ready” implies a holistic system approach. Gas ports are being tuned smaller at the factory to account for the increased dwell time and backpressure of suppressed fire. Adjustable gas blocks, once an aftermarket upgrade, are becoming standard features on mid-tier and premium rifles.

Furthermore, we are seeing the rise of “system connectivity.” Proprietary muzzle devices that serve as quick-detach (QD) mounts for specific suppressor ecosystems are being pinned and welded from the factory, or integrated directly into the barrel architecture. This “systems integration” locks the consumer into a manufacturer’s ecosystem but guarantees reliability—a trade-off the market seems willing to make. The industry is moving away from the “Lego set” mentality of the AR-15, where users mix and match unmatched components, toward a European-style model of buying a complete, tuned weapon system.6

2. The Tactical Lever-Action Renaissance

While the high-tech tactical sector dominates the headlines, a concurrent and equally powerful trend is the explosive resurgence of the lever-action rifle. This “Tactical Lever-Action Renaissance” is not merely a nostalgic fad; it is a strategic adaptation to the fragmented regulatory landscape of the United States. In states with restrictive semi-automatic bans, the lever-action offers the fastest manual-cycle rate of fire available, and when coupled with modern features like M-LOK rails, threaded barrels, and polymer furniture, it becomes a viable defensive tool. SHOT Show 2026 sees this category maturing from custom shop conversions to mass-production flagships.8

2.1 Bond Arms LVRB: The Mechanical Marvel

Undoubtedly the most technically innovative platform in this segment is the Bond Arms LVRB (Lever Action Repeating Bond). While first teased in previous years, the production-ready model debuting at SHOT 2026 represents a radical departure from over 160 years of lever-gun tradition. Unlike the toggle-link, tube-fed designs of the Winchester 1894 or Marlin 336, the LVRB is fundamentally a lever-driven AR-15.10

The core innovation lies in its feed mechanism. The LVRB utilizes standard, commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) AR-15 magazines (STANAG pattern) and a rotating multi-lug bolt similar to the Stoner design. This engineering feat solves the two primary limitations of the lever-action: capacity and ammunition compatibility. Traditional tube magazines limit capacity and prevent the use of pointed (spitzer) bullets due to the risk of chain-fire detonation in the tube. By moving to a detachable box magazine, the LVRB allows the use of modern, high-ballistic-coefficient projectiles in calibers like 5.56mm,.300 Blackout, and.450 Bushmaster.

Technically, the LVRB employs a proprietary camming system that translates the rotational movement of the lever loop into the linear reciprocating motion of the bolt carrier group. This system also incorporates a unique feed ramp geometry to ensure reliable feeding from double-stack magazines—a notorious challenge for manual actions. The rifle features an oversized lever loop, a Magpul buttstock interface (specifically the SGA series designed for the Remington 870, allowing for adjustable length of pull), and a full-length Picatinny top rail. For the analyst, the LVRB is the “Ban State King,” offering 30-round capacity and rapid follow-up shots in a package that legally circumvents “assault weapon” definitions in jurisdictions like California and New York.11

2.2 Marlin Dark Series: The Modern Classic

In contrast to the radical redesign of the Bond Arms LVRB, Marlin (now a subsidiary of Ruger) is doubling down on the modernization of the classic 1895 platform. The Marlin Dark Series Model 1895 in.45-70 Government is the flagship of this effort. Ruger’s manufacturing influence is evident in the cold hammer-forged barrels and tighter tolerances compared to the “Remlin” (Remington-owned Marlin) era rifles.

The 2026 Dark Series features a black nylon-reinforced polymer stock with M-LOK attachment slots at the 3, 6, and 9 o’clock positions on the forend, allowing for the direct mounting of lights, lasers, and bipods—accessories previously alien to the lever gun world. The receiver and lever are finished in Graphite Black Cerakote for enhanced corrosion resistance, acknowledging that these rifles are intended for hard field use rather than display cases. A critical addition for 2026 is the factory-installed radial muzzle brake on a threaded barrel (11/16″-24 pitch). This brake is essential for taming the recoil of the.45-70 cartridge, which has seen a resurgence in popularity due to its effectiveness on large game and its suitability for subsonic suppression. The “Dark Series” expansion into.44 Magnum and the.30-30 Winchester ensures that Marlin retains its grip on the traditionalist market that desires modern utility without abandoning the tube magazine aesthetic.14

2.3 Smith & Wesson Model 1854: The Challenger

Smith & Wesson has aggressively entered this space with the Model 1854 Series, a direct challenge to Marlin’s dominance. Celebrating the company’s roots (dating back to the Volcanic lever action of 1854), this new platform is a blend of heritage and high-tech manufacturing. The Model 1854 stands out with its use of 416 stainless steel forgings for the receiver and barrel, offering superior weather resistance.

For SHOT Show 2026, S&W is expanding the line with the Model 1854 Stealth Hunter, chambered in the proprietary .360 Buckhammer cartridge as well as the classic.30-30 Winchester. The Stealth Hunter features a polymer stock with textured grip panels, a flat-face trigger for improved tactile feedback, and a Picatinny rail for optics mounting. The inclusion of the.360 Buckhammer is a strategic move to capture the deer hunting market in the Midwest, where straight-wall cartridge regulations prevail. S&W’s approach focuses on “smoothness” of action; early reports suggest the 1854’s action cycle is significantly smoother out-of-the-box than competitors, attributed to precise CNC machining and polishing of the internal carrier surfaces.17

2.4 Henry Repeating Arms: The Supreme Modular

Not to be outdone, Henry Repeating Arms continues to innovate with its Lever Action Supreme Rifle (LASR) and the Long Ranger Express. The LASR is particularly notable for being a magazine-fed lever action that utilizes standard AR-15 magazines, similar in concept to the Bond Arms LVRB but retaining a more traditional profile. The Long Ranger Express, chambered in 5.56mm/.223 Rem, features a celestial-anodized aluminum receiver and a free-floated barrel, bringing bolt-action accuracy to the lever platform. Henry’s strategy relies on volume and variety, offering a dizzying array of finishes and configurations to saturate the market.20

3. The Evolution of the Battle Rifle

While the “Black Rifle” market is saturated, the top tier of the industry is focused on refining the AR-15/AR-10 platform into proprietary systems that solve specific end-user problems: signature reduction, weight balance, and reliability under adverse conditions.

3.1 Knight’s Armament Company (KAC) KS-1: The “Grail Gun” Arrives

The undisputed heavyweight champion of “buzz” at SHOT Show 2026 is the Knight’s Armament KS-1 (Knight’s Stoner 1). Originally developed under the “Project Hunter” requirement for the British Royal Marines Commandos and the Army Ranger Regiment (designated L403A1 in UK service), the commercial release of the KS-1 marks a significant milestone for civilian collectors and high-end tactical users.21

The KS-1 represents the apex of the Direct Impingement (DI) gas system. Its most visually distinct feature is the 13.7-inch barrel with heavy “ball mill” dimpling. This dimpling process serves a dual purpose: it significantly increases the surface area of the barrel for rapid heat dissipation—critical for a rifle designed to be run suppressed 100% of the time—and it reduces the overall weight of the heavy-profile barrel without compromising rigidity. This moves the center of gravity rearward, improving the weapon’s handling characteristics (“pointability”).

Furthermore, the KS-1 introduces the URX6 handguard, a substantial evolution from the previous URX4. The URX6 offers a more rigid mounting interface for aiming lasers (like the NGAL or PEQ-15) and clip-on thermal devices, minimizing point-of-aim/point-of-impact shift when the handguard is under load. The gas system has been tuned specifically for the new flow-through suppressors, ensuring that the rifle cycles reliably with a wide variety of ammunition while minimizing gas blowback to the shooter. The release of the KS-1 to the US commercial market in 2026, following the fulfillment of initial UK defense contracts, is expected to trigger a frenzy of demand, with secondary market prices likely exceeding MSRP by significant margins.23

3.2 Palmetto State Armory (PSA) Jakl 2.0: Refining the Budget Piston

At the other end of the price spectrum, Palmetto State Armory continues to democratize advanced operating systems. The Jakl 2.0 addresses the primary criticisms of the first-generation platform. The original Jakl, a long-stroke gas piston monolithic upper receiver inspired by the AK-47 and the FN SCAR, was praised for its reliability but critiqued for its excessive weight and front-heavy balance.

The Jakl 2.0 features extensive milling and reprofiling of the monolithic upper receiver to shave ounces and shift the balance point rearward toward the pistol grip. This makes the rifle far more maneuverable in dynamic shooting scenarios. Ergonomically, the 2.0 introduces a standard ambidextrous bolt catch/release—a feature previously lacking—and a re-contoured stock interface for better cheek weld. PSA is also teasing a bullpup conversion kit for the Jakl lower, which would transform the rifle into a compact CQB (Close Quarters Battle) platform reminiscent of the Croatian VHS-2, but at a fraction of the cost. This modularity aligns with PSA’s philosophy of providing high-value options to the “everyman” shooter.25

3.3 Daniel Defense HVM & ISR Gen 2: The Silent Professional

Daniel Defense (DD) maintains its position as a premier duty-grade manufacturer with the introduction of the HVM platform. While specific details remain guarded, the acronym “HVM” and associated leaks suggest a “High Velocity Modular” system, potentially a lightweight large-frame AR (AR-10 style) optimized for cartridges like 6mm ARC or 6.5 Creedmoor, designed to bridge the gap between a battle rifle and a precision semi-automatic.25

More concrete is the expansion of the DDM4 ISR (Integrally Suppressed Rifle) line. With the NFA tax stamp repeal, the ISR concept has moved from a niche novelty to a logical default. The Gen 2 ISR models feature 9-inch barrels with permanently attached suppressor stacks that bring the total length to legal 16-inch non-SBR requirements (though this length requirement is now less critical for legality, it remains relevant for travel across state lines). The new suppressor architecture utilizes advanced flow dynamics to vent gas forward, away from the shooter’s face—a crucial improvement over legacy baffle designs that often “gassed out” the operator during rapid fire sequences. These rifles are targeted squarely at the home defense and law enforcement markets where hearing protection is critical but electronic muffs may not be available in a sudden engagement.7

4. The Pistol Caliber Carbine (PCC) Maturation

The PCC market is evolving beyond simple blowback designs, which are cheap to manufacture but suffer from disproportionately harsh recoil due to the heavy reciprocating mass of the bolt. In 2026, the market is demanding delayed-blowback systems that offer a smoother recoil impulse.

4.1 PSA Sabre AR-V: Roller-Delayed Democratization

The standout announcement in this category is the PSA Sabre AR-V. Historically, roller-delayed blowback—the operating system made famous by the HK MP5—has been restricted to expensive European imports or high-end boutique clones (e.g., JP Enterprises JP-5). PSA’s entry into this space with the “Sabre” line (their premium sub-brand) brings roller-delayed technology to a sub-$1500 price point.

The Sabre AR-V utilizes a roller-delayed buffer system integrated into the AR-15 control layout. This allows competitive shooters and tactical users to enjoy the soft recoil impulse of rollers with the familiar ergonomics, triggers, and safety selectors of the AR platform. This hybrid approach essentially renders simple blowback 9mm ARs obsolete in the mid-tier market. By combining the AR-V’s existing magazine compatibility (Scorpion/AK-V mags) with this new operating system, PSA is positioned to dominate the USPSA PCC division and the recreational market.31

4.2 Bishop Firearms AR45TC: The Thompson Reimagined

On the boutique side, Bishop Firearms is showcasing the AR45TC, a unique fusion of the AR-15 and the Thompson submachine gun aesthetic. Chambered in.45 ACP and 10mm Auto, this rifle uses a proprietary delayed-blowback system to handle the energy of the 10mm cartridge. It features wood furniture reminiscent of the “Chicago Typewriter,” appealing to the collector who wants modern performance with a distinct visual flair. While a niche product, it highlights the broader industry trend of “Retro-Mod” aesthetics.8

5. The New “Ranch Rifle” & Compliance Markets

A fascinating trend at SHOT Show 2026 is the reinvention of the “Ranch Rifle.” These firearms are designed to be 50-state legal (avoiding pistol grips and flash hiders where necessary) while retaining the modularity and performance of modern tactical rifles.

5.1 SIG Sauer MCX Regulator

SIG Sauer’s MCX Regulator is the premier example of this trend. It essentially takes the upper receiver of the battle-proven MCX Spear (piston-driven, folding stock capability) and mates it to a proprietary lower receiver with a traditional rifle stock profile. Crucially, the stock interface is compatible with Mossberg 590 shotgun stocks, opening up a vast aftermarket of existing furniture options.

The Regulator is available in 5.56mm and 7.62x39mm and features an integrated ARCA rail on the bottom of the handguard. This inclusion is significant; it acknowledges the growing crossover between hunting and precision shooting, where tripod-mounted shooting is becoming a standard field skill. The Regulator offers a “featureless” option for residents of restrictive states like California, New York, and Massachusetts, giving them access to the MCX platform’s reliability without the legal liabilities of “assault weapon” features. It is the modern Mini-14, but with sub-MOA accuracy and modularity.33

5.2 FightLite Herring Model 2024

Similarly, the FightLite Herring Model 2024 continues to gain traction. This lever-action AR hybrid uses a proprietary lower receiver that accepts standard AR-15 uppers and magazines. While similar in concept to the Bond Arms LVRB, the Herring retains a more traditional aesthetic and manual of arms, appealing to those who want the modularity of the AR-15 (caliber changes, optics mounting) in a package that looks at home in a scabbard. The leverage of the AR-15 ecosystem allows users to swap calibers from.22 LR to.450 Bushmaster simply by pushing two pins and changing the upper.9

6. Precision & Varmint: The ARC Revolution

The “Caliber Wars” of the past decade were fought over the 6.5mm bore diameter. That war is over; 6.5 Creedmoor won. The new battlefront is the.22 and 6mm bore diameters, specifically the Advanced Rifle Cartridge (ARC) family developed by Hornady. These cartridges—22 ARC and 6mm ARC—are designed to fit within the constraints of the AR-15 magazine well (max overall length of 2.260 inches) while delivering external ballistics that rival larger short-action cartridges.

6.1 22 ARC: The New Varmint King

The 22 ARC is the star of the bolt-action varmint world in 2026. Designed to fire heavy, high-ballistic-coefficient (BC) bullets (75 to 88 grains) at high velocities, it significantly outperforms the.223 Remington/5.56mm at distance and offers a modern alternative to the aging.22-250 Remington.

  • Ruger American Gen II “Prairie”: Ruger has fully embraced the 22 ARC with the “Prairie” variant of its American Gen II rifle. This model features a medium-heavy contour barrel, a “Smoked Bronze” Cerakote finish for weather resistance, and a splatter-textured stock for grip. The Gen II upgrades include a 3-position safety and a smoother bolt throw. Ruger’s adoption signals that 22 ARC is moving from a proprietary wildcat to a mainstream staple.36
  • Savage Arms & Christensen Arms: Savage is offering the 22 ARC in its 110 Precision and Axis II lines, while Christensen Arms has updated its Modern Hunting Rifle (MHR) to include the chambering. These manufacturers recognize that predator hunters want the wind-bucking capability of the heavy.22 cal bullets in a lightweight platform.36

6.2 6mm ARC: The General Purpose Standard

The 6mm ARC has solidified its position as the premier “General Purpose” cartridge for light recoiling rifles.

  • Savage 110 Magpul Scout: A standout release is the Savage 110 Magpul Scout. This rifle revives the Jeff Cooper “Scout Rifle” concept but updates it for the 21st century. It utilizes the new Magpul hunter stock system, which offers M-LOK slots and adjustable length of pull. Chambered in 6mm ARC (along with.308 Win and 6.5 CM), it offers a flatter trajectory and less recoil than the traditional.308, making it an ideal rifle for deer-sized game and tactical applications inside 800 yards.36
  • Browning X-Bolt 2: Browning’s entry into the ARC market with the premium X-Bolt 2 signifies that the cartridge has been accepted by the traditional hunting establishment. The X-Bolt 2 features the new “DLX” trigger and a Vari-Tech composite stock that allows for extensive user customization of fit.40

7. Innovation at the Edge: Railguns & Smart Tech

While traditional chemical propellants dominate the market, SHOT Show 2026 offers a glimpse into the future of small arms technology with electromagnetic and biometric advancements.

7.1 Arcflash Labs: The EMG-02

Arcflash Labs is showcasing the EMG-02, the successor to the GR-1 Anvil. This handheld coilgun (often colloquially called a railgun, though technically a multi-stage coilgun) represents a significant leap in performance. The EMG-02 reportedly delivers over 266 Joules of muzzle energy—more than double that of its predecessor—and features a theoretical cycle rate of 800 rounds per minute.

  • The Tech: It uses a capacitor-augmented system to accelerate ferromagnetic projectiles (dowel pins) using electromagnetic fields. While 266 Joules is roughly equivalent to a standard velocity.22 Long Rifle round, the fact that it achieves this without gunpowder, brass, or primers is revolutionary. It is variable velocity, silent (aside from the sonic crack if supersonic), and uses ammunition that can be essentially cut from steel rod stock.
  • Market Viability: Currently, it remains a high-priced novelty ($3,000+) for tech-focused collectors, but the rapid scaling of power output suggests that kinetic lethality comparable to 9mm or 5.56mm is an engineering inevitable within the decade.42

7.2 Biofire: The Smart Gun Reality Check

Biofire is present on the show floor with production units of its 9mm Smart Gun. Unlike previous failed attempts that relied on clumsy RFID watches or slow readers, the Biofire system integrates fingerprint and facial recognition directly into the grip and rear of the slide. The system is designed to unlock instantly upon establishing a firing grip.

  • The Skepticism: The industry remains deeply skeptical of electronics in life-saving tools. However, Biofire’s “default to fire” engineering philosophy (if the biometric fails in certain modes) and the seamless integration are winning over some critics. The primary market remains home defense for families with small children, where the “lockout” feature provides peace of mind against unauthorized access.45

8. Conclusion & Strategic Outlook

SHOT Show 2026 will be recorded in industry history as the “Year of Integration.” The repeal of the NFA tax stamp was the catalyst, but the result is a fundamental shift in how rifles are designed, marketed, and sold. The siloing of “rifle,” “suppressor,” and “optic” is dissolving into a unified “weapon system” model.

The must-see rifles of 2026—the KAC KS-1, Bond Arms LVRB, and SIG MCX Regulator—share a common DNA: they are modular, adaptable systems designed to thrive in a complex legal and tactical environment. They reject the notion that a rifle must be either “tactical” or “compliant,” “classic” or “modern.”

For the retailer and the consumer, this is the Golden Age of choice. The “Post-NFA” era has arrived, and it is quieter, shorter, and significantly more capable than the previous paradigm. The defining sound of SHOT Show 2026 is not the boom of a gunshot, but the quiet hiss of a suppressed round impacting steel—the new sound of freedom in the American marketplace.

Key Analyst Takeaways:

  • Regulation Drives Innovation: The NFA repeal has done more for small arms R&D in one year than the previous decade of incrementalism.
  • The “Ban State” Market is Premium: Manufacturers are no longer ignoring restricted states; they are building high-end, high-margin products (LVRB, Regulator) specifically for them.
  • ARC is the New Standard: Retailers must stock 6mm and 22 ARC ammunition in depth; these are no longer wildcats.
  • Systems over SKUs: The future of sales lies in selling the complete suppressed package, not just the bare rifle.

Works cited

  1. SHOT Show 2026 Trends: What to Look For This Year – Inside Safariland, accessed January 12, 2026, https://inside.safariland.com/blog/shot-show-2026-trends-what-to-look-for-this-year/
  2. New Year Buying Surge Shows 2026 Could Be The Year Of Suppressors – NSSF, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.nssf.org/articles/new-year-buying-surge-shows-2026-could-be-the-year-of-suppressors/
  3. No More $200 Tax Stamps for Suppressors — What You Need to Know – SilencerCo, accessed January 12, 2026, https://silencerco.com/blog/no-more-200-tax-stamps-for-suppressors
  4. $0 NFA Tax Stamp Hub: Suppressors & SBRs – Silencer Shop, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.silencershop.com/free-nfa-tax-stamp
  5. Short Barrel Rifles – 9mm, 5.56, and More – Silencer Shop, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.silencershop.com/firearms/short-barrel-rifles.html
  6. Video: SIG Sauer MCX | An Official Journal Of The NRA – American Rifleman, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.americanrifleman.org/content/video-sig-sauer-mcx/
  7. Daniel Defense Isr-Black – Silencer Shop, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.silencershop.com/daniel-defense-isr-black.html
  8. New Rifles Coming in 2025 | NSSF SHOT Show 2026, accessed January 12, 2026, https://shotshow.org/new-rifles-coming-in-2025/
  9. The Lever Gun Resurgence Rolls On at SHOT Show 2025 – Inside Safariland, accessed January 12, 2026, https://inside.safariland.com/blog/the-lever-gun-resurgence-rolls-on-at-shot-show-2025/
  10. Bond Arms to Attend the 2026 SHOT Show – The Outdoor Wire, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.theoutdoorwire.com/releases/2026/01/bond-arms-to-attend-the-2026-shot-show
  11. Bond Arms Lever Action AR-15 – 2024 Update – Recoil Offgrid Magazine, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.offgridweb.com/gear/new-bond-arms-lever-action-ar-15/
  12. LVRB™ (Coming Soon) – Bond Arms, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.bondarms.com/LVRB-Coming-Soon-P8583.aspx
  13. Bond Arms Lever Action AR-15? – NRA 2023 – YouTube, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqdWMB8Fq0E
  14. Dark Series Lever-Action Rifles – Marlin Firearms, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.marlinfirearms.com/s/leverAction-DarkSeries/
  15. Dark Series Model 1895™ – Marlin Firearms, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.marlinfirearms.com/s/model_70901/
  16. Marlin Dark. 45-70 Government – Quick Draw Gun, accessed January 12, 2026, https://quickdrawgun.com/marlin-dark-45-70-government/
  17. NEW: Smith & Wesson® Model 1854 Lever Action Series, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.smith-wesson.com/article/smith-wesson-model-1854
  18. S&W® MODEL 1854 STEALTH HUNTER™ 30-30 WIN | Smith & Wesson, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.smith-wesson.com/product/s-w-model-1854-stealth-hunter-30-30-win
  19. NEW: S&W® MODEL 1854 STEALTH HUNTER™ | Smith & Wesson, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.smith-wesson.com/article/new-s-w-model-1854-stealth-hunter-
  20. Henry Firearms | Henry Repeating Arms, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.henryusa.com/henry-firearms/
  21. New Knight’s Armament KS-1 and KS-3 Rifles Revealed at Austria Arms Action Days, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Uv1bLYVfmQ
  22. Knight’s Armament Company KS-1 – SHOT Show 2024 – YouTube, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUQcBBY7pAk
  23. KS-1 – Knight’s Armament, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.knightarmco.com/28951/shop/military/ks/ks-1
  24. r/kac on Reddit: KAC – KS … PRICE LIST!, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.reddit.com/r/kac/comments/1nel5qu/kac_ks_price_list/
  25. NSSF SHOT Show 2026, accessed January 12, 2026, https://shotshow.org/
  26. PSA JAKL 2.0 at SHOT Show 2025 – YouTube, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5z-LeU38yYE
  27. PSA’s Revamped JAKL 2.0 Concept | SHOT Show 2025 – YouTube, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOGntY7LO-s
  28. [SHOT Show 2024] PSA’s NEW JAKL Prototypes | thefirearmblog.com, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2024/01/24/shot-show-2024-psas-new-jakl-prototypes/
  29. The JAKL 2.0 – Palmetto State Armory – YouTube, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Pxi_8nLif8
  30. Integrally Suppressed Rifles – Suppressors – Daniel Defense, accessed January 12, 2026, https://danieldefense.com/suppressors/isr.html
  31. Sabre AR-V – Palmetto State Armory, accessed January 12, 2026, https://palmettostatearmory.com/sabre/ar/sabre-ar-v.html
  32. The PSA Sabre-ARV 2025 Product Launch Details – Palmetto State Armory, accessed January 12, 2026, https://palmettostatearmory.com/blog/the-psa-sabre-arv-product-launch-details.html
  33. MCX-REGULATOR – Sig Sauer, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.sigsauer.com/mcx-r-regulator.html
  34. The Truth Behind The New Sig MCX Regulator – YouTube, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4mR02CT_do
  35. SIG SAUER MCX-Regulator: Redefining the Ranch Rifle, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.sigsauer.com/blog/sig-sauer-mcx-regulator-redefining-the-ranch-rifle
  36. Sunday GunDay: Notable New Rifles — SHOT Show 2026 Preview « Daily Bulletin, accessed January 12, 2026, https://bulletin.accurateshooter.com/2026/01/sunday-gunday-notable-new-rifles-shot-show-2026-preview/
  37. Ruger American ® Rifle Generation II Prairie, accessed January 12, 2026, https://ruger.com/products/americanRiflePrairieGenII/models.html
  38. Introducing The Ruger American Rifle Generation II Prairie Models – Ruger News, accessed January 12, 2026, https://ruger.com/news/2025-10-22.html
  39. New Rifles Coming in 2024 | NSSF SHOT Show 2026, accessed January 12, 2026, https://shotshow.org/new-rifles-coming-in-2024/
  40. X-Bolt 2 – Centerfire Bolt-Action Rifles – Browning, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.browning.com/products/firearms/rifles/x-bolt-2.html
  41. Browning X-Bolt 2 Speed Rifles Detailed Reviews – YouTube, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tX03436r3c
  42. GR-1 “Anvil” – Wikipedia, accessed January 12, 2026, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GR-1_%22Anvil%22
  43. Arcflash EMG-02 — Coil Gun Coolness – The Mag Life – GunMag Warehouse, accessed January 12, 2026, https://gunmagwarehouse.com/blog/arcflash-emg-02-coil-gun-coolness/
  44. Electromagnetic Railguns and Future Weaponry: Tactical Gear for Tomorrow’s Battles, accessed January 12, 2026, https://14ertactical.com/blogs/resources/electromagnetic-railguns-and-future-weaponry-tactical-gear-for-tomorrows-battles
  45. What ever happened to the biofire smartgun? : r/ForgottenWeapons – Reddit, accessed January 12, 2026, https://www.reddit.com/r/ForgottenWeapons/comments/1njf0it/what_ever_happened_to_the_biofire_smartgun/
  46. Biofire Ships First Smart Guns to Customers – The Smoking Gun, accessed January 12, 2026, https://smokinggun.org/biofire-ships-first-smart-guns-to-customers/