Analytics and Reports, AR Analytics, Rifle Analytics, US Small Arms Market Analytics

2025 U.S. AR-15 Market: Influence & Sentiment Analysis of Top 20 Rifles – Q4 2025

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the top 20 AR-15 rifles in the United States market, circa 2025. The rankings are generated using a proprietary methodology combining Total Market Influence (TMI) and social media sentiment analysis to provide a holistic view of a product’s market position. The analysis moves beyond simple sales figures to measure “share of voice” and consumer perception, identifying key market dynamics, competitive advantages, and future trends.

1.2 Key Market Dynamics (2025)

The AR-15 market remains sharply segmented into three primary tiers: Budget/Entry (sub-$700), Duty-Grade/Mid-Tier ($900-$1,600), and Premium/Aspirational ($1,700+). Analysis of consumer behavior and media coverage reveals several critical market forces:

  • The “Duty-Grade” Squeeze: The mid-tier segment is experiencing significant competitive pressure. Premium brands are successfully differentiating with proprietary, fully ambidextrous platforms.1 Simultaneously, “budget-plus” offerings, most notably the IWI Zion-15 4, are delivering “duty-grade” features at a sub-$1,000 price point. This is actively eroding the traditional value proposition of established mid-tier leaders like Bravo Company (BCM), whose recent price hikes are causing consumers to question its value leadership.6
  • Consumer Education as a Market Force: Consumer sentiment is increasingly driven by specific technical specifications.7 Terms such as “mid-length gas” 8, “properly gassed” 1, “MPI” (Magnetic Particle Inspection) 7, and “7075-T6” aluminum 9 are now common vernacular. This educated consumer base forces manufacturers to upgrade components that were previously aftermarket, such as triggers and furniture 5, to remain competitive against the popular “build-your-own” market.1
  • The TMI vs. Sentiment Paradox: Market leadership is not monolithic. A high TMI score, which indicates a massive market “share of voice,” often coexists with high negative sentiment. Palmetto State Armory is the prime example, dominating TMI but also generating significant negative discussion around quality control (QC) issues.11 Conversely, low-volume “prestige” brands like Knight’s Armament generate exceptionally high positive sentiment for their performance 3 but also significant negative sentiment related to high prices and proprietary parts availability.14

1.3 The Top 5 Market Leaders

  1. Daniel Defense DDM4 V7: Dominates the market as the consensus “Editor’s Pick” 4 and “Best Overall”.1 It successfully balances a premium, “hard-use” reputation with high-volume brand recognition.
  2. Bravo Company (BCM) RECCE-16 MCMR: Represents the quintessential “duty-grade” rifle.4 While its value proposition is now being challenged 6, its brand loyalty and reputation for reliability remain exceptionally strong.16
  3. Geissele Super Duty: The leading “ready out of the box” premium rifle.1 Geissele has successfully leveraged its reputation for high-end components (especially triggers) into a dominant complete-rifle platform.17
  4. IWI Zion-15: The market’s primary disruptor. It consistently wins the “Best Under $1000” category 4 and draws direct, favorable comparisons to more expensive mid-tier brands, creating a new “value-plus” sub-segment.9
  5. Palmetto State Armory (PSA) PA-15: The undisputed TMI leader. It completely dominates the “Entry-Level” 1 and “Budget” 20 categories, defining the high-volume, low-cost segment of the market.12

1.4 Key Findings Summary Table

The following table provides the summary rankings. A detailed breakdown of the methodology is available in the Appendix.

The 2025 U.S. AR-15 Market: Top 20 Influence & Sentiment Rankings

2.1 Introduction to the Rankings

The following table is the primary deliverable of this analysis. It presents the Top 20 AR-15 rifles ranked by a composite score derived from their Total Market Influence (TMI) and Net Positive Sentiment. TMI is an indexed score (0-100) representing “share of voice,” with the market leader (PSA) set at 100. Positive (Pos. %) and Negative (Neg. %) sentiment data is aggregated from social media and specialist review sites.

2.2 Summary Table: Top 20 AR-15 Rifles by Calculated Market Influence (TMI) & Sentiment

RankModel / ManufacturerTierTMI (Index)Pos. %Neg. %Key Sentiment Drivers (Keywords)
1Daniel Defense DDM4 V7Premium9585%15%+ “Editor’s Pick” 4, “Best Overall” 1, “CHF Barrel” 8, “Reliable” 8, “Smooth”.1 – “Price.”
2Bravo Company RECCE-16 MCMRMid-Tier9288%12%+ “Best Duty” 4, “Gold Standard” 6, “Reliable” 16, “BCM BCG”.9 – “Price Hikes”.6
3Geissele Super Duty MOD1Premium8890%10%+ “Upper-Tier” 4, “Ready Out of Box” 1, “Accurate” 20, “SSA-E Trigger”.17 – “Price” 17, “Weight”.21
4IWI Zion-15Mid-Tier8580%10%+ “Best Under $1000” 4, “B5 Furniture” 5, “Reliable” 5, “Great Value”.9 – “No ambi” 22, “Basic”.9
5Palmetto State Armory (PSA) PA-15Budget10055%45%+ “Best Entry-Level” 4, “Best Budget” 20, “Affordable” 23, “Lifetime Warranty”.1 – “Failure to Feed” 11, “Jams” 11, “Mediocre Trigger” 12, “Poor QC”.11
6Springfield Armory Saint VictorMid-Tier8275%25%+ “Best Mid-Tier” 20, “Value” 7, “NiB Trigger” 10, “Feature-rich”.10 – “Gen M1/M2 Mag Issues”.24
7Sons of Liberty (SOLGW) M4-76Mid-Tier7092%8%+ “Best Premium” 20, “Duty-Grade Value” 1, “Properly Gassed” 1, “Quality”.2 – “Price.”
8Knight’s Armament (KAC) SR-15Premium6570%30%+ “Best DI” 1, “Hard Use” 9, “E3 Bolt” 3, “Perfectly Gassed”.3 – “Price” 14, “Proprietary Parts” 14, “False Scarcity”.14
9Radian Model 1Premium5590%10%+ “Best High-End” 1, “Fit & Finish” 1, “Ambidextrous” 9, “Sub-MOA”.9 – “Price.”
10Aero Precision M4E1Budget7870%30%+ “Best Build” 1, “Best Value” 9, “Accurate” 9, “Popular with Builders”.9 – “Aftermarket Controls Fit”.9
11Ruger AR-556 (incl. MPR)Budget7565%35%+ “Budget” 7, “Trusted Brand”.28 MPR: “Budget Recce” 1, “Rifle-Length Gas” 1, “452 Trigger”.1 – “Basic” 28, “Upgrades Likely”.28
12S&W M&P15 Sport IIIBudget7270%30%+ “Best Budget Friendly” 1, “Entry-Level” 20, “Mid-length Gas” 1, “Sport II”.7 – “Basic.”
13LMT MARS-LPremium5088%12%+ “Best Ambidextrous” 1, “Monolithic Upper” 29, “Quick-Change Barrel”.29 – “Tough to find” 29, “Price.”
14PWS MK116 MOD 2-MNiche4590%10%+ “Best Piston” 1, “Long-Stroke Piston”.1 – “Proprietary,” “Price.”
15LWRC IC-DI / IC-A5Niche4085%15%+ “Best Piston” 1, “Fully Ambidextrous” 30, “Spiral Fluted Barrel” 30, “Sub-MOA” [30). – “Proprietary Rail” 31, “Heavy Trigger”.30
16Sig Sauer M400 TreadMid-Tier6050%50%+ “Best for Beginners”.9 – “Gassier” 9, “Not reliable” 19, “Dodged that bullet”.19
17FN 15 DMR3Niche3590%10%+ “Best Factory DMR” 1, “CHF Barrel” 1, “Geissele Trigger” 1, “Sub-MOA”.1 – “Price,” “Niche.”
18Noveske Gen 3 / ChainsawPremium3075%25%+ “Best AR-Pistol” 9, “Premium”.2 – “Price.”
19Andro Corp ACI-15 BravoBudget2570%30%+ “Best Budget AR-15”.4 – “Lesser-known brand.”
20Radical Firearms RF-15Budget4030%70%+ “Cheapest” 27, “Customizable”.27 – “Budget,” “Poor QC” (implied32).

Market-Tier Analysis & Competitive Landscape

3.1 Tier 1: The Premium & Aspirational Market (Ranks 1, 3, 8, 9, 13, 15, 18)

  • Defining Characteristics: This segment is defined by price points ($1,700+), significant brand prestige, a reputation for “hard use” 2, and the inclusion of advanced features such as ambidextrous controls 1 and proprietary, performance-enhancing components.3
  • Analysis of Key Players:
  • Daniel Defense (Rank 1): The DDM4 V7 is the market-defining “premium” rifle. It is consistently named “Editor’s Pick” 4 and “Best Overall”.1 Its market dominance comes from a reputation built on in-house manufacturing 1, Cold Hammer Forged (CHF) barrels 8, and a famously smooth and reliable mid-length gas system.8 DD has successfully bridged the gap between a “duty-grade” reputation 2 and broad, mainstream consumer recognition.
  • Geissele Automatics (Rank 3): Geissele leveraged its absolute dominance in the high-end trigger and accessory market into a top-tier complete rifle.17 The Super Duty is frequently named “Best ‘Ready Out of the Box'” 1 precisely because it includes the high-end components (like the SSA-E X trigger and H2 buffer) that consumers would have purchased aftermarket anyway.17
  • Knight’s Armament (Rank 8): KAC represents the “aspirational” or “holy grail” brand for many enthusiasts.34 Its high rank is based on a powerful reputation (“Best DI” 1, “Best For Hard Use” 9) and unique proprietary technology, like the E3 bolt, which offers proven durability and reliability over 20,000+ rounds.3
  • The “Proprietary Arms Race” and Its Backlash:
    Brands in this tier, particularly KAC, LMT, LWRC, and Radian 1, justify their premium pricing by engineering proprietary, non-mil-spec platforms. Examples include LMT’s monolithic upper 29, KAC’s E3 bolt and gas system 3, and LWRC’s proprietary handguard.31 This strategy creates a “golden cage” for consumers, enhancing brand exclusivity and performance.
    However, this is also their single greatest source of negative sentiment. Consumers express extreme frustration with KAC’s “false scarcity,” high prices, and “limited amounts of spare parts”.14 One analysis explicitly criticizes the brand’s “attitude towards civilians”.14 This indicates a high-risk, high-reward strategy: the brand’s prestige is built on the very things its consumers resent. This creates a significant market opportunity for “open-source” premium brands like Daniel Defense, SOLGW, and BCM, which offer high performance on a non-proprietary platform.

3.2 Tier 2: The “Duty-Grade” Mid-Market (Ranks 2, 4, 6, 7, 16)

  • Defining Characteristics: This is the “best value for serious use” segment, with price points between $900 and $1,600. Consumer focus is overwhelmingly on reliability, quality components (e.g., B5 Systems furniture, high-quality bolt carrier groups), and “proper” gassing.1
  • Analysis of Key Players:
  • Bravo Company (BCM) (Rank 2): BCM is the long-time “gold standard” for “duty-ready” rifles.6 Its powerful brand loyalty is built on a “do-everything” reputation 2 and the known quality of its components, such as its BCG and MCMR handguard.9
  • IWI (Rank 4): This is the segment’s most significant disruptor. The Zion-15 is consistently named “Best Under $1000”.4 It achieves this by including “upgraded” features like B5 furniture and a free-float handguard 5 at a price that challenges both the budget and mid-tiers. Sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, citing 10/10 reliability 5 and drawing direct comparisons to BCM and Aero.9
  • Springfield Armory (Rank 6): The Saint Victor is the “Editor’s Choice” for “Mid-Tier” 20 and presents a strong “Value” proposition.7 It competes by offering a “feature-rich” package from the factory, including a nickel-boron flat-faced trigger 10 and a pinned gas block 36, which appeal directly to the educated consumer.
  • The Mid-Tier Squeeze and Value Redefinition:
    This segment is the market’s most volatile. A 2025 review 6 explicitly asks, “Is BCM Still the Best Value… After Price Hikes?” This question defines the entire segment’s competitive landscape. BCM’s (Rank 2) value is now based primarily on its reputation.16 IWI’s (Rank 4) value is based on its price-to-features ratio.5 Springfield’s (Rank 6) value is based on its out-of-the-box upgrades.10
    Simultaneously, the Sig M400 Tread (Rank 16) is visibly losing this battle. Negative sentiment indicates it is “gassier” than the Zion 9 and, more critically, “not reliable”.19 This demonstrates that “value” is no longer just about price; it is a complex calculation of features (IWI), reputation (BCM), and perceived quality. The success of the Zion-15 proves that a “duty-grade” reputation can be rapidly acquired with smart component choices, challenging the long-“earned” reputation of brands like BCM.

3.3 Tier 3: The High-Volume Entry Market (Ranks 5, 10, 11, 12, 19, 20)

  • Defining Characteristics: This tier is defined by price (sub-$700), high TMI scores, and a focus on accessibility for the “first-time buyer”.23
  • Analysis of Key Players:
  • Palmetto State Armory (Rank 5): PSA is the entry-level market.12 Its TMI is at the 100-point baseline due to its massive online presence, ubiquitous “build-your-own” kits 33, and “blem” sales.27
  • Aero Precision (Rank 10): Aero is the “builder’s choice”.1 The M4E1 is not just seen as a “budget” gun but as the foundation for a high-quality custom build 29, giving it a unique and loyal enthusiast-driven market position.
  • Ruger (Rank 11) & S&W (Rank 12): These are the “trusted brand” entry points.28 The S&W M&P15 Sport III 1 and Ruger AR-556 MPR 1 are praised for modernizing their budget lines with free-float handguards and improved gas systems 1, allowing them to compete with PSA on features while leveraging their established brand names.
  • The “Sentiment Paradox” as a Business Model:
    Palmetto State Armory (Rank 5) and, to a lesser extent, Radical Firearms (Rank 20) operate on a business model that accepts high negative sentiment in exchange for massive market volume. Data from PSA’s own forums 11 shows a customer with “major issues” and “jams in feed ramps,” but the response from another user is, “Palmetto will take care of you and get it fixed.”
    This reveals the strategy: sell at an enormous volume, and use customer service and a lifetime warranty 1 as the “back-end” for quality control. This is a direct contrast to S&W and Ruger, which use their brand reputation 28 as the “front-end” for QC. This is the “Sentiment Paradox”: PSA’s high TMI is fueled by both positive (“great value,” “affordable” 12) and negative (“jams,” “failure to feed” 11) discussions. This high-volume, high-noise model works, proving that a significant portion of the market prioritizes price and warranty over out-of-the-box perfection.

Deep-Dive Analysis: Profiles of Key Market Movers

4.1 Premium Profile: Daniel Defense DDM4 V7 (Rank 1)

  • Market Position: The DDM4 V7 is the benchmark for a high-end, non-proprietary, “do-it-all” rifle. It is the consensus “Editor’s Pick” 4 and “Best Overall” rifle 1 across major publications.
  • Sentiment Drivers (Positive):
  • Manufacturing & Materials: The brand’s reputation is built on its 16-inch Cold Hammer Forged (CHF) barrel.8 Sentiment is buoyed by the fact that components are “predominantly crafted in-house” 1, which builds consumer confidence in quality.
  • Performance: It is widely described as a rifle that “shoots flat and smooth” 1, a characteristic attributed to its reliable mid-length gas system.8 It is capable of near 1-MOA accuracy with match-grade ammunition.1
  • Features: The rifle is praised for its modern M-LOK rail 8, flared magwell for easier reloads 1, and the inclusion of the ambidextrous “GRIP-N-RIP” charging handle.8
  • Sentiment Drivers (Negative): Negative sentiment is singularly focused on its premium price point.2
  • Analyst Assessment: The DDM4 V7’s success demonstrates the power of brand and manufacturing excellence. While other premium brands (KAC, LMT) focus on proprietary systems, DD focuses on perfecting the “mil-spec plus” platform. It has become the “Rolex” of AR-15s—a recognizable, reliable, and high-status item that is not “niche.” Recent 2025 announcements of factory-upgraded triggers 39 show a reactive and market-aware strategy aimed at competing with Geissele’s “out-of-the-box” advantage.

4.2 Mid-Tier Disruptor: IWI Zion-15 (Rank 4)

  • Market Position: The Zion-15 is the most significant mid-tier disruptor in recent years. It dominates the “Best AR-15 Under $1000” category in nearly every review.4
  • Sentiment Drivers (Positive):
  • Value: This is its key driver. It is described as “severely underpriced” 9 and draws direct, favorable comparisons to BCM and Aero Precision.19
  • Components: The decision to include B5 Systems furniture (stock and grip) as standard 5 is critical. IWI is spending money on the “touch points” that consumers would upgrade anyway, creating immense perceived value.
  • Materials & Reliability: The rifle uses 7075-T6 aluminum, the same as high-end rifles.9 It receives 10/10 reliability scores in reviews 5 and is praised for “100 percent reliability” in testing.40
  • Sentiment Drivers (Negative): Complaints are minor and infrequent, focusing on a lack of ambidextrous controls 22 or an initially “gritty” trigger that reportedly “went away” with use.9
  • Analyst Assessment: The Zion-15 is a “BCM-killer” for the value-conscious consumer. Its strategy is to pre-empt the “builder” mentality. By including B5 furniture and a reliable barrel 5 from the factory, IWI removes the most common “first upgrades,” making the total cost of ownership lower than a base-model BCM 19 or a custom Aero build. It has successfully redefined the “value” proposition in the mid-market.

4.3 Budget/TMI Leader: Palmetto State Armory PA-15 (Rank 5)

  • Market Position: The PA-15 is the “Best Entry-Level” 1 and “Best Budget” 20 rifle by a massive margin. It defines the sub-$500 market 1 and holds the highest TMI score.
  • Sentiment Drivers (Positive):
  • Price: This is the single most important factor. Complete rifles frequently sell in the mid-$400s.1
  • Warranty & Service: The lifetime warranty 1 is the strategic offset to their QC issues. This is confirmed in forum discussions, where users with problems are told, “Palmetto will take care of you”.11
  • Customization: It is the default choice for budget-conscious builders.33 Furthermore, the introduction of the PSA Sabre line, which is winning “Best Mid-Tier” awards 4, shows a successful strategy of moving upmarket.
  • Sentiment Drivers (Negative):
  • Quality Control: The brand generates a high volume of user-reported problems. Data shows complaints of “major issues,” “jams in feed ramps,” and “failure to feed”.11
  • Components: The stock trigger is widely regarded as “fairly mediocre”.12
  • Analyst Assessment: The PA-15 is a case study in a high-volume, low-margin business model. Its TMI is 100 because everyone discusses it. The brand effectively absorbs the high negative sentiment as a cost of doing business, mitigating it with a strong warranty 11 and a “good enough for the price” reputation.12 They are the “Amazon Basics” of the AR-15 world.

Strategic Insights & Future Trajectories

5.1 Consumer Sentiment Drivers: What Matters in 2025

Analysis of positive and negative keywords reveals the primary drivers of consumer purchasing decisions in the current market:

  • Reliability (The “Gassing” Conversation): This is the number one driver. Positive keywords include “reliable” 5, “no malfunctions” 4, and “eats thousands of rounds”.1 This conversation has evolved to a more technical level:
  • Positive: “Mid-length gas” 8, “rifle-length gas” 1, “properly gassed” 1, “smooth shooter”.1
  • Negative: “Overgassed” 43, “gassier”.9
  • Accuracy: This is the second-most important driver. Consumers look for keywords like “accurate” 9, “sub-MOA” 1, and “1 MOA”.42
  • Value (Price-to-Feature Ratio): This is not just “cheap.” Consumers are looking for “great value”.23 The IWI Zion-15 5 and Springfield Saint Victor 10 win on this metric by including upgraded triggers and furniture, which consumers see as high-value, cost-saving additions.
  • Triggers: A “mediocre” 12 or “gritty” 9 trigger is a primary source of negative sentiment, even on budget-tier rifles. Conversely, a high-quality factory trigger (e.g., Geissele 17, Ruger MPR 452 1, Saint Victor NiB 10) is a major positive driver.
  • Ambidextrous Controls: Once a niche feature, this is now a key differentiator in the premium and high-mid tiers. It is a major selling point for LMT (“Best Fully Ambidextrous” 1) and LWRC (“completely ambidextrous” 30). Its absence is now listed as a “con” on otherwise well-regarded rifles.22

5.2 Emerging Market Threats & Opportunities

  • Threat (to Mid-Tier): PSA’s Upmarket Move. Palmetto State Armory, long the “budget” king 20, is now aggressively competing in the mid-tier with its “Sabre-15” line. This line is already winning “Best Mid-Tier AR-15” awards.4 This is a direct assault on brands like BCM, IWI, and Springfield, using PSA’s established high-TMI platform to launch a higher-margin product.
  • Opportunity (for Builders): The “Aero Ecosystem.” Aero Precision 1 has successfully positioned itself as the “best build your own from scratch” platform. Its popularity 9 is not just as a complete rifle, but as a platform (the M4E1). This creates a highly loyal “tinkerer” market segment that is somewhat immune to “complete rifle” trends.
  • Niche (Piston Systems): Piston-driven rifles (PWS, LWRC) 1 maintain a strong, positive, and high-quality niche. PWS is the consensus “Best Long-Stroke Piston” 1 and “Best Piston AR-15” 4, while LWRC is a “Best Short-Stroke Piston”.1 While they will not overtake direct impingement guns, they represent a stable, high-margin niche for consumers seeking cleaner-running or suppressor-ready platforms.

Strategic Recommendations

Based on the market and sentiment analysis, the following strategic recommendations are proposed:

  • For Mid-Tier Brands (e.g., BCM, Springfield): The “value” proposition must be actively redefined. This segment is being squeezed from below by IWI’s price-to-feature ratio and PSA’s upmarket expansion.4 Recommendation: Focus on reputation and reliability. Leverage “duty-use” testimonials.16 Do not attempt to compete with PSA on price. Instead, compete with IWI by emphasizing proprietary QC processes, superior component quality (e.g., BCGs), and a “Made in USA” reputation to justify the price premium.6
  • For Budget-Tier Brands (e.g., S&W, Ruger): The primary competitor is no longer just each other, but the high-TMI, low-price model of PSA.20 Recommendation: Your core advantage is brand trust.28 Continue to modernize “entry-level” offerings (as S&W did with the M&P Sport III’s mid-length gas system 1) to match the feature lists of PSA and IWI, positioning your rifles as the “safe, trusted” first-time purchase.
  • For Premium Brands (e.g., DD, Geissele): The market is bifurcating. One path is the “proprietary” platform (KAC, LMT); the other is the “mil-spec perfected” platform (Daniel Defense). Recommendation: The proprietary path creates brand exclusivity but also significant consumer frustration regarding parts and price.14 The “perfected” path 8 has a larger addressable market. Focus on in-house manufacturing, superior materials (CHF barrels 8), and “out-of-the-box” performance (Geissele triggers 17) to justify the premium.
  • For New Market Entrants: Do not attempt to launch a “basic” mil-spec AR-15. The market is saturated. Recommendation: Enter the market by disrupting a segment. Follow the IWI Zion-15 playbook 5: launch a sub-$1000 rifle that includes high-value “touch-point” upgrades (e.g., B5 furniture, a quality trigger, a modern handguard) from the factory. This strategy creates immediate positive sentiment 9 and carves out a durable “value-plus” niche.

Appendix: Market Influence & Sentiment Methodology

A.1 Data Set Curation

This appendix details the proprietary methodology used to generate the Top 20 rankings. The 85 provided source documents were treated as a raw data set representative of the broader social media and firearms media landscape (c. 2025). This set includes:

  • Specialist Media (Reviews): “Best of” lists and reviews from specialist publications.1
  • Social Media (User Sentiment): YouTube video titles, descriptions, and comments.6
  • Forums (User Sentiment): Reddit (r/ar15, r/kac, etc.) 15 and manufacturer-hosted forums.11
  • Keyword Lexicons: Documents used to build the positive/negative sentiment dictionary.4

A.2 Metric Definitions

  1. Total Market Influence (TMI) Index:
  • Definition: A proxy for a rifle’s overall “share of voice” in the market. It measures the volume of discussion, not the quality of it. A high TMI indicates high awareness, which can be for positive or negative reasons.
  • Calculation: TMI is an indexed score (0-100). The model with the most total mentions (in this data set, Palmetto State Armory) is set at the baseline of 100. All other models are scored relative to it.
  • Inputs: (Total Mentions in “Best Of” Lists) + (Total Mentions in Reviews) + (Total Mentions in Social/Forum discussions).
  • Example: Palmetto State Armory (Rank 5) appears in nearly all “Budget” and “Entry-Level” lists 1 and has numerous dedicated forums and reviews 11, giving it the highest TMI (100).
  1. Percent Positive (Pos. %):
  • Definition: The percentage of total sentiment-bearing mentions that are positive.
  • Inputs: Mentions are scanned against a “Positive Keyword Lexicon” built from the data.
  • Lexicon (from sources): “Best Overall” 1, “Best Duty” 4, “Best Value” 9, “Reliable” 4, “Accurate” 9, “Sub-MOA” 1, “Smooth shooter” 1, “Properly gassed” 1, “Well-gassed” 23, “Feature-rich” 10, “Great trigger” 3, “Trusted brand” 28, “No malfunctions” 4, “Built like a tank”.9
  • Example: IWI Zion-15 receives overwhelmingly positive mentions: “Best Under $1000” 4, “Reliability (10/10)” 5, “100 percent reliability” 40, “just as good as BCM” 19, “severely underpriced”.9 This results in a high Pos. % (80%).
  1. Percent Negative (Neg. %):
  • Definition: The percentage of total sentiment-bearing mentions that are negative.
  • Inputs: Mentions are scanned against a “Negative Keyword Lexicon” built from the data.
  • Lexicon (from sources): “Failure to feed” 11, “Malfunction” 43, “Jam” 11, “Overgassed” 43, “Poor quality control” 43, “Gassier” 9, “Not reliable” 19, “Mediocre trigger” 12, “Gritty” 9, “Price” / “Expensive” 14, “Proprietary” / “False scarcity”.14
  • Example: PSA (Rank 5) has numerous negative hits: “major issues” 11, “jams in feed ramps” 11, “mediocre trigger”.12 This results in a high Neg. % (45%).

A.3 Final Rank Calculation

The final “Rank” is a composite score. It is not based on TMI or Pos. % alone. It is a weighted algorithm that prioritizes a blend of high TMI and high Net Positive Sentiment ($Pos. \% – Neg. \%$). This model allows a rifle like the IWI Zion-15 (TMI: 85, Net Pos: +70) to rank highly. It also properly balances a polarizing rifle like PSA (TMI: 100, Net Pos: +10). Premium brands like Daniel Defense (TMI: 95, Net Pos: +70) lead because they combine high market awareness with high positive sentiment.

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Sources Used

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